An Open Invitation

Investment Analysis Clubs Saul’s Investing Discussions
1

An Open Invitation

I often see posts on this board with 30 or 35 recommendations. However they often have just a handful of replies and comments. That tells me that there are lots of people out there who read the posts but probably rarely or never post themselves. If you are one of them, this is an open invitation to you. Please do post your thoughts and ideas and questions! If you have a question or a comment, we welcome it. Even if you are a beginner. We can all learn from a question because it will elicit answers that we never thought of. So if you are out there and haven’t made any comments of your own, please don’t hesitate. That’s what a board like this is for.

Saul

14 Likes
2

Thanks Saul…a very nice reassurance on your part for individuals such as me…I am not real good at examining balance sheets and income statements…but I am really good at reading and determining “good” posts from many of the MF members on this board.

I suspect your “Open Invitation” post will have a PE ratio much higher than 30-35…

Sincerely

Nick (floridafool6)

3 Likes
3

You are very welcome Nick, and you don’t have to be good at examining balance sheets and income statements to have good common sense opinions about stocks. Don’t be afraid to post them.

Best,

Saul

4

Thanks Saul. I’ve only been investing about a year and half now. Luckily I ran across fooldom and some of these boards very early on and they’ve been an invaluable resource. I feel like I’ve built up a pretty good portfolio though I’m trying to trim down a bit, sold off a few of the losers that I didn’t think would recover soon.

The discussions that happen here are really helpful, thanks to everyone and especially Saul for taking the time.

Paul

1 Like
5

Please do post your thoughts and ideas and questions!

Hi Saul, I noticed that you are a member of MF One, which means you have access to MF services in Australia, Canada, UK ,etc.

Joe Magyer, who is now running MF Pro in Australia, has said that the market is much more inefficient there, and that his Aussie picks should be able to outperform his US ones.

Have you looked into the recommendations of the MF Australia Pro and Hidden Gems services yet? Many of them are the fast growing small caps that you like with market caps under 500M.

3 Likes
6

Thanks free capital, I called MF customer service to find out how to get access to MF Australia. I’ll give it a look.

Saul

7

Freecapital,

Are the ASX listed companies of the same quaintly, scope, and opportunity as some of the smaller companies US listed companies, such as the one we talk about? I am thinking of the likes of UBNT, SYZM, INVN, BOFI etc. My impression is that ASX has some solid bio-tech opportunities (Sirtex & Mesoblast) come to mind. The rest of the opportunities are in the smaller mining and mining related companies. But with mining we are talking about investment in price takers not price setters.

Anyways, that’s just my 2 cents about ASX opportunities.

Anirban

8

Thanks free capital, I called MF customer service to find out how to get access to MF Australia. I’ll give it a look.

You should be able to access it via this link :

http://www.fool.com.au/welcome-fool-one-members/

9

Are the ASX listed companies of the same quaintly, scope, and opportunity as some of the smaller companies US listed companies, such as the one we talk about? I am thinking of the likes of UBNT, SYZM, INVN, BOFI etc. My impression is that ASX has some solid bio-tech opportunities (Sirtex & Mesoblast) come to mind. The rest of the opportunities are in the smaller mining and mining related companies. But with mining we are talking about investment in price takers not price setters.

I don’t have much time right now, but MF Oz do not recommend mining related companies in their paid services.

Some recent recommendations are :

www.xero.com

www.nearmap.com

www.carsales.com.au

www.webjet.com.au

1 Like
10

Some recent recommendations are :

www.xero.com

www.nearmap.com

www.carsales.com.au

www.webjet.com.au

It’s funny; I know we are all trying to help each other, but providing this information publicly somehow does not seem right to me. I don’t really mind the odd occasional comment that, e.g., a stock is a RB pick, but these are very small companies and you are really diluting the value of these recs to paying members of hat service.

Rich

CED

9 Likes
11

freecapital,

xero is an interesting recommendation.

near map is interesting but appears to be Oz focussed.

webjet, I don’t know. There’s way too much competition in this cheap flights, hotels category.

Anirban

12

Hi Saul, I read your posts often and sometimes post, but not so often. Thanks for the invitation. I did have a couple of questions regarding your post about your portfolio.

It looks like you sold your position in ELLI and I was just wondering why? Is it because the mortgage market seems to be slow?

Also, I was wondering if you use stop loss orders so that if a stock starts falling quickly that you don’t lose so much.

I’ve had a number of positions that have done this, but I just held on because I still believe in the companies.

I did just buy some MTZ, I still like the company and the price is pretty reasonable.

I also have held a small position in AFOP since you listed it last year. I never could understand why they are so volatile.

Thanks for all that you do Saul, we all do appreciate it very much
Brian

2 Likes
13

It looks like you sold your position in ELLI and I was just wondering why? Is it because the mortgage market seems to be slow?

Hi Brian

ELLI has a lot going for them. They have a reservoir of people already signed up and waiting to be activated (which is like a big backlog), they have recurring income for a large part of their revenue, they have a dominant position which can’t really be challenged (their moat is too strong).

However, looking at this realistically, they’ve had some poor, poor quarters.

This was the second quarter in a row of revenue growing less than 5%, where we had gotten used to growth of 40% to 50%.

Adjusted net income was down significantly for the third quarter in a row. This time from 7.6 million to 4.6 million. (That’s not just a little drop!)

Adjusted earnings were down in a major way for the third quarter in a row too. From 27 cents to 16 cents. (Who cares if they beat even lower expectations).

Second quarter earnings also predicted to be down year over year.

For the full year 2014, they predict earnings equivalent to 2013’s earnings (which was down from 2012) and this prediction is a reduction in their estimates.

The only good news is that this would mean a big improvement in the second half of the year, if it happens. they’ve been promising a turn around and it’s not been happening for about three quarters now. I just got tired of waiting.

On the other hand, they just announced a major stock buy-back plan.

Also, I was wondering if you use stop loss orders so that if a stock starts falling quickly that you don’t lose so much.

I never use a stop loss. With volatile stocks like this, if you put a stop loss at say 10% below market you are just ensuring you’ll get sold out for 10% less than it’s worth now. If I decide I want to sell, I just sell whole or part, at the now price, not 10% lower.

Saul

3 Likes
14

Thanks free capital, I called MF customer service to find out how to get access to MF Australia. I’ll give it a look.

Here’s the spot.

https://onesupport.fool.com/hc/en-us/articles/201369050-Do-I…

15

xero is an interesting recommendation.

Here is a free report on Xero, “Joe Magyer’s #1 ASX Tech Stock for 2014” :

http://www.fool.com.au/free-stock-report/asx-tech-stock-repo…

1 Like
16

Here is a free report on Xero, “Joe Magyer’s #1 ASX Tech Stock for 2014” :

Interesting company and thanks for posting.

I wonder why Joe classifies this as high risk? Any ideas?
Thanks,
Mykie

1 Like
17

I wonder why Joe classifies this as high risk? Any ideas?

I mean any ideas other than they haven’t made a profit yet and with a price tag of around 70 times sales.

Fire, aim, oops hit the foot
Mykie

18

a price tag of around 70 times sales

Makes Zillow look like a value stock!

1 Like
19

Hi Saul,

I am one of the followers, who occasionally post on this board.
If you may remember, we connected on ELLI last year on the RB board.

I enjoy reading your thoughts. I did benefit from your ELLI, PSIX, and other posts. I think it is not about the individual stocks, more on the thought process, and analysis that’s what is helping me understand.

Infact, I put in a little in FEYE,and you screamed that these people were spending way too much than they took in…sure enough, it corrected from 90 to 30s recently. I got out in time.

I am a beginner, and understand a little of financial statements. I going through these books to understand more of financial statements :

The Five Rules for Successful Stock Investing: Morningstar’s Guide to Building Wealth and Winning in the Market

How to Read a Financial Report: Wringing Vital Signs Out of the Numbers

I need to read these again. But I highly recommend the above two books, for any beginners out there.

Praveen

2 Likes
20

Cbo606 I think in general the smaller the market cap of the company the more volatile. AFOP is a small company, so you really have to know WHY you are taking the position.
Small companies often go on road shows to talk about their companies to the institutional investors- mutual funds, hedge funds etc. When a mutual fund or other large buyer puts in an order the company will move up and when that buying ends the company will move down again. So when you can’t figure out any news, they may have persuaded someone to buy during an investor conference. Check the investor relation page for new releases and investor conference schedules.

1 Like