Bear's Talend Q1 Thoughts

When I first saw Talend’s report, I was very unhappy with the 39% growth, especially given the amount of money they’re still losing. But after listening to the call, I am actually considering buying more shares.

First, I was confused. Dollar based expansion rate was 124%. Enterprise customers were up to 427 (up 47%!!!) How did revenue only grow 39%???

I think it’s likely that this is another masked-growth situation. Talend has a legacy on-prem business (including Hadoop) that is slowing down, especially in North America. But Talend also has the cloud, which is growing at 100%+.

From the prepared remarks:

Cloud and big data solutions delivered a combined subsection revenue growth of 69% year-over-year.

Our big data and cloud products now together represent our largest product category and make up approximately 50% of our subscription revenue in the second quarter.

Later in answer to a question, Mike said:

…overall growth rate was 39% and we told you that half of business is big data and cloud, and that’s growing 69%, you can do some math and come to the conclusion that roughly about 34.5% of the 39% growth came from big data and cloud. And so the other 4.5% growth came from everything else. And that’s just math in my head, that you can do from the other numbers that we released. And so I think – but I think it also does answer your question.

That pretty much says it all. “Everything else” is a big drag right now, but in the next few quarters, big data and cloud (esp cloud with its triple digit growth rates) will become much more than 50% of all revenue, and overall growth rate will skyrocket.

Yep, I’ve convinced myself. This is the time to buy. I’m increasing my Talend position.

Bear

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Good stuff.

John
Mama Bear size TLND position.

I meant Q2, of course.

Sorry,
Bear

That pretty much says it all. “Everything else” is a big drag right now, but in the next few quarters, big data and cloud (esp cloud with its triple digit growth rates) will become much more than 50% of all revenue, and overall growth rate will skyrocket.

Bear - Over the past few months you’ve mentioned this camouflaged growth story with TLND that should begin to play out over the next few quarters. I noticed in your October update you didn’t mention this. With TLND earnings coming up 7 Nov I’m curious your thoughts.

-AJ

Bear - Over the past few months you’ve mentioned this camouflaged growth story with TLND that should begin to play out over the next few quarters. I noticed in your October update you didn’t mention this. With TLND earnings coming up 7 Nov I’m curious your thoughts.

Trying to divine what will happen in one earnings release is gambling. But yes, personally, I am betting on it (with 11/16 call options). Of course I have no idea if or to what extent the thus-far camouflaged growth will shine through this quarter. My guess is that revenue growth will gradually accelerate over the next several quarters. That said, the guide is for 36% this Q, and I find it highly unlikely that it would be that low.

But how much they beat and how the market reacts? Those are questions for the handicappers.

Bear

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That said, the guide is for 36% this Q, and I find it highly unlikely that it would be that low.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/talend-reports-third-quarter-…

“We delivered record revenue of $52.1 million for the third quarter of 2018, up 36% year-over-year,” said Mike Tuchen, Talend CEO.

Stock down 36%, your thoughts here?

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“We delivered record revenue of $52.1 million for the third quarter of 2018, up 36% year-over-year,” said Mike Tuchen, Talend CEO.

Stock down 36%, your thoughts here?

Yes, I have a position in TLND and I’m wondering too. The earnings release indicated 4th quarter revenue growth should be in line but earnings projections dropped. Also, I believe their was some suggestion of slowing revenue growth for 2019 in the CC.

Then, there’s the aquisition of Stitch. I’m not sure if this was viewed negatively.

I’m not making any changes in my position unless/until I gain some clarity here.

When I first saw Talend’s report, I was very unhappy with the 39% growth, especially given the amount of money they’re still losing. But after listening to the call, I am actually considering buying more shares.

First, I was confused. Dollar based expansion rate was 124%. Enterprise customers were up to 427 (up 47%!!!) How did revenue only grow 39%???

I think it’s likely that this is another masked-growth situation. Talend has a legacy on-prem business (including Hadoop) that is slowing down, especially in North America. But Talend also has the cloud, which is growing at 100%+.. (emphasis mine)

Bear,

Do this was written on August 7. After today’s drop do you still have the same thinking?

Thanks.

Jeb
Long TLND
Explorer Supernaut
You can see all my holdings here: https://discussion.fool.com/profile/TMFJebbo/info.aspx

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Revenue growth 36% (as guided)
Dollar based expansion: 118%
Cloud growth: 100+%
Enterprise Customers: 444 (33% yoy), or +17 sequentially

Revenue growth was as guided, but disappointing because of the rapid decline in on-prem business. Cloud growth remains great. Cloud is undoubtedly the future here. May just take a little longer for the hidden revenue story to play out. Disappointing for sure though.

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