Candidate stocks

The 1YPEG calculation spreadsheet I’ve been working on now has all values filled in for all stocks in the sheet, including revenue. For reference, the spreadsheet is located here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1H_v6WOjFi81rM3TH9ZHS…

For stocks that weren’t mine and left by other people I went ahead and filled in the Revenue and Earnings numbers, however, please note that I used amigobulls to extract this information. I felt it would have been a laborious task to go into each company’s earnings report to pull its numbers for stocks that I didn’t even own…but I also have a sort of completion complex about me so felt it must be done :slight_smile:

As always, please make sure to research these numbers on your own and always do follow up work on any stock the spreadsheet may happen to highlight. These are first pass candidates!

I tweaked the candidate stock selection criteria to also include stocks that are still coming out of negative earnings (e.g. no 1YPEG as of yet) but have extremely good earnings (>40%) and revenue (>50%). In this way XPO makes its appearance in the list. Since WAB and CELG have a 1YPEG > 1 they still don’t make the cut. But I think that is ok as I’m using this spreadsheet as a tool to find a place for new money and not to find places where things may be winding down.

The updated stock candidates are below. I entered in a bunch of new stocks into the sheet that I screened using CAPS. I looked for stocks showing signs of large amounts of revenue growth and earnings growth and then dug in to only stocks that had a CAPS rating of 4 or 5. Some of those CAPS screened stocks made their way into the list below.


	YoY EPS  TTM            YoY Rev
Ticker  Growth   P/E	1YPEG	Growth
======= ======= ======= ======= =======
AAPL	35.28%	15.65	0.44	20.52%
ABMD	200.00%	26.15	0.13	22.95%
AFSI	48.48%	9.95	0.21	29.11%
AMBA	114.04%	48.91	0.43	50.90%
ANET	90.32%	48.99	0.54	54.68%
ARCP	42.11%	N/A	N/A	217.08%
ATRO	59.69%	22.80	0.38	67.57%
BANC	200.00%	12.31	0.06	50.40%
BOFI	35.87%	19.98	0.56	39.33%
BX	47.67%	9.57	0.20	22.64%
CGNX	60.00%	32.99	0.55	39.18%
CMG	44.32%	40.04	0.90	26.47%
CMLP	200.00%	92.38	0.46	138.06%
CNC	50.30%	32.04	0.64	52.94%
CRTO	200.00%	61.81	0.31	51.41%
ENPH	64.71%	N/A	N/A	52.24%
EPAM	32.58%	30.88	0.95	30.29%
FB	66.06%	45.59	0.69	51.49%
FEYE	45.30%	N/A	N/A	129.95%
GILD	200.00%	12.52	0.06	101.08%
INBK	34.38%	19.46	0.57	20.00%
INFN	200.00%	44.49	0.22	26.69%
INN	200.00%	109.83	0.55	26.73%
KORS	33.64%	10.86	0.32	32.02%
NHTC	200.00%	20.74	0.10	111.94%
NYMT	36.14%	7.12	0.20	21.30%
PAYC	200.00%	139.81	0.70	44.44%
PSIX	45.26%	39.10	0.86	45.06%
REGN	106.59%	48.99	0.46	33.74%
SEDG	200.00%	140.67	0.70	177.42%
SEP	54.88%	14.60	0.27	77.69%
SKX	105.77%	34.75	0.33	33.83%
SNCR	30.34%	26.67	0.88	33.06%
SRC	200.00%	50.76	0.25	26.73%
SWIR	200.00%	32.89	0.16	24.89%
SWKS	76.52%	25.28	0.33	51.29%
SYNA	33.89%	17.53	0.52	78.45%
TREX	93.33%	35.84	0.38	22.62%
TSM	45.67%	12.65	0.28	33.20%
TWTR	200.00%	163.09	0.82	98.00%
VEEV	88.24%	83.94	0.95	43.40%
VRX	32.54%	25.47	0.78	30.05%
XCRA	200.00%	11.76	0.06	83.20%
XPO	72.51%	N/A	N/A	219.56%

As Saul suggests, there really are a lot of stocks out there with the right quality signs, and my first exercise at finding them has become proof to me that they really are out there. I’m becoming much more confident in my abilities to identify stocks with the right qualities on my own.

Give a man a fish and I’ll eat for a day. Teach a man to fish and I’ll eat for a lifetime. Thank you Saul. You have my eternal gratitude.

Best,
–Kevin

74 Likes

Give a man a fish and I’ll eat for a day. Teach a man to fish and I’ll eat for a lifetime. Thank you Saul. You have my eternal gratitude.

Thank YOU, Kevin for all your hard work, and also for your very kind words.
Saul

5 Likes

Kevin,

Very nice! Keep it up.

Regards,
Chandy

1 Like

Nice screen but be careful of the numbers

this is from FireEye earnings release
For 2015, the company currently expects total revenue in the range of $615 to $635 million. Additionally, for 2015, on a non-GAAP basis, the company expects:

Total billings in the range of $825 to $835 million.
Gross margin in the range of 71 to 75 percent of total revenue.
Research and development expenses in the range of 35 to 38 percent of total revenue.
Sales and marketing expenses in the range of 64 to 68 percent of total revenue.,
General and administrative expenses in the range of 14 to 17 percent of total revenue.
Loss per share of $1.75 to $1.85, based on estimated weighted average shares outstanding of approximately 155 million.
Negative cash flow from operations in the range of $65 to $80 million.

5 Likes

I am ill and all medicated up so I hope I made sense. My point is they are cash flow negative, they have no earnings, so the screen seems to have an error.

But I am not thinking my best today so take it with a grain of salt.

And you can check my holding on my profile.

1 Like

Good points TMFFlygal.

The screen just shows that FEYE has increased earnings by a lot YOY. And I think we all understand this is just one screen and that more research needs to be done before any purchases are made.

Still, Kevin, I can’t tell you how much I’ve used this already for research. I’ve even entered a lot of companies! What’s funny is how the stocks I used to consider relatively “safe” are far from it. Thanks Kevin!

  • Matt

Hi Kate,

What you wrote makes perfect sense and you are correct in that FEYE has no earnings.

I probably wasn’t as clear as to what I did to the screen and why I made the change. I wanted to open up the selection criteria so that we wouldn’t miss the next XPO as Saul has found. XPO is one of those stocks with negative earnings, but, they are solidly growing revenue and EPS YoY. Yes, opening up the criteria to these types of stocks means it is an exception to the rule, and that may be ok as long as you’ve done your research.

If you visit the spreadsheet, the stocks with these slightly questionable criteria show up with a ‘?’ in the candidate stock column. This is opposed to the normal ‘X’. The question mark means it could be a good one to investigate, but definately do your homework!

The stocks with a question mark include ARCP, ENPH, FEYE and XPO. The rest in the list are all solidly in the positive territory and satisfy the normal criteria.

Hope this helps clarify things a little better.

Thanks for the comments!
–Kevin

4 Likes

Hi Flygal, How about these two numbers on your FEYE post?

Loss per share of $1.75 to $1.85, based on estimated weighted average shares outstanding of approximately 155 million. (That comes to a total loss of $280 million).

Negative cash flow from operations in the range of $65 to $80 million.

Wow!

Saul

2 Likes

I probably wasn’t as clear as to what I did to the screen and why I made the change. I wanted to open up the selection criteria so that we wouldn’t miss the next XPO as Saul has found. XPO is one of those stocks with negative earnings, but, they are solidly growing revenue and EPS YoY. Yes, opening up the criteria to these types of stocks means it is an exception to the rule, and that may be ok as long as you’ve done your research.

Hi Kevin, I would recommend that people be very, VERY, cautious with the story stocks that say they will break even in 2016 or 2017!!! I made an exception for XPO because its adjusted EBITDA looked like this (rounding off):

2013: -07 -12 -07 +00 = -25.5
2014: +01 +14 +24 +42 = +81.4
2015: +29

but even with that, I’m not kidding myself. Once they have positive earnings and a real PE ratio, they’ll have to prove themselves as a real company. And with another company like FEYE, which seems far from breaking even, I’d be especially cautious.

JMO

Saul

For Knowledgebase for this board
please go to Post #9286

6 Likes

Kevin, this is great work! Thank you for sharing your research with us.

Look at Gilead!!!

And I’m rather happy and surprised to see CMG on the list. I like it!

Karen

Kevin, Great work, as I have said. I have just a small suggestion that might simplify your table and make it easier to read. What I’d do is remove all the decimal places. They simply don’t figure into your decision of whether or not to buy, and they do confuse the picture. For example, look at CNC (I know nothing about the company).

CNC	50.30%	32.04	0.64	52.94%

Saying it like this:

CNC	50%	32	0.64	53%

you don’t lose anything you need for decision making, but when looking at a whole column it’s a lot easier to make sense of. It makes no difference if the rate of earnings growth is 50 or 50.3 percent as far as any decision you’d make. Similarly with the PE of 32 or 32.04, and with rate of growth of earnings between 52.94 and 53 percent, but it sure makes your table more readable.

JMO

Saul

24 Likes

Saul, thanks for the suggestion. I just made the change.

Also, I took note about what you and Kate said and will add something to make the considerations clearer on the stocks with negative earnings. Perhaps it may be best to leave the indicator off entirely since the circumstances for consideration are very rare.

Best,
Kevin

1 Like

Yes FEYE is losing money and is expected to be losing money all the way until 2018-2020 according to Value Line projections althoughh losses may decrease in future years.

sw

1 Like

I entered info on your speadsheet on GPRO. (last line)
Where would you go to get more info?

Wayne

1 Like

I entered info on your speadsheet on GPRO. (last line)
Where would you go to get more info?

Hi Wayne. Google “GoPro investor relations”. Then go to press releases, and their quarterly earnings reports.

Saul

2 Likes

Kevin,

Thanks for doing all the leg work on this. Great spreadsheet that I think will continue to be a valuable tool for folks here for a long time.

  • Matthew
1 Like

Thanks Saul.

Still learning.

Wayne

Kevin,

Thanks for putting together the spreadsheet.

One suggestion regarding your use of Amigobulls to pull EPS information. Maybe flag the EPS information in the spread sheet (colorcode?) the EPS information from amigobulls vs the info pulled directly from the earnings report.

This way people know which data has been vetted already.

3 Likes

Saul,

Hi Flygal, How about these two numbers on your FEYE post?

Loss per share of $1.75 to $1.85, based on estimated weighted average shares outstanding of approximately 155 million. (That comes to a total loss of $280 million).

Negative cash flow from operations in the range of $65 to $80 million.

Of course you are completely right but I was so far gone (recurring paradoxical vocal cord disorder) I couldn’t get the formatting right.

Mending, Flygal

You can see my holdings on my profile, required of all employees of the Fool, even part timers like me.

I was so far gone (recurring paradoxical vocal cord disorder) I couldn’t get the formatting right. Mending, Flygal

Hi Flygal, Hope you are a lot better now!
Saul

1 Like