because the CEO seemed to be spending all his time and energy in micro-managing his NBA basketball team, and in the conference calls he seemed to feel that questions about UNBT were below him, and he simply hadn’t been following the company.
I kind of had this impression too, although perhaps not as strong. Now however, you may have a different opinion, as I do, if you go back over the last few earnings calls or read the transcripts.
Before you do this, take a look at A.J.'s earnings review post. It outlines what’s happening in the business.
http://discussion.fool.com/ubnt-earnings-review-32348673.aspx
Regarding the numbers, you got out when they had execution issues and the finance blunder that cost them about $30 million (they got a chunk of it back).
Maybe Ubiquiti is a Saul Stock, even if our beloved Saul doesn’t agree.
Revenue is growing again, and it is expected to keep growing over the next few quarters and set up to grow even longer.
Rev Mar Jun Sep Dec
2011 51.2 67.6 79.2 87.8
2012 91.7 94.9 61.5 74.9
2013 83.2 101.2 129.7 138.4
2014 148.3 156.0 150.1 153.1
2015 147.5 145.3 151.4 161.9
2016 167.4 185.7
Grth Mar Jun Sep Dec
2011
2012 79.2% 40.4% -22.3% -14.7%
2013 -9.3% 6.7% 110.8% 84.8%
2014 78.4% 54.1% 15.7% 10.6%
2015 -0.6% -6.9% 0.9% 5.7%
2016 13.5% 27.8%
Geographically, they are performing much better everywhere, except for South America, where even the decreases have been significantly reduced:
NA Mar Jun Sep Dec SA Mar Jun Sep Dec
2011 15.8 22.0 24.9 21.4 2011 13.7 18.3 19.8 24.3
2012 16.6 25.3 20.4 12.1 2012 27.7 16.6 10.2 17.1
2013 21.1 31.3 37.4 32.6 2013 18.5 19.9 20.8 28.0
2014 29.2 43.3 53.6 54.1 2014 25.1 35.8 31.1 22.2
2015 45.7 44.3 53.2 57.1 2015 17.9 25.9 22.1 23.8
2016 57.8 71.1 2016 15.5 23.9
Grth Mar Jun Sep Dec Grth Mar Jun Sep Dec
2011 2011
2012 5.2% 14.9% -18.4% -43.5% 2012 101.8% -9.3% -48.4% -29.6%
2013 26.5% 23.8% 83.8% 169.0% 2013 -33.1% 20.3% 102.8% 63.9%
2014 38.6% 38.2% 43.1% 66.2% 2014 35.5% 79.3% 49.9% -20.5%
2015 56.6% 2.4% -0.6% 5.6% 2015 -28.7% -27.6% -28.9% 7.0%
2016 26.5% 60.5% 2016 -13.5% -7.5%
EMEA Mar Jun Sep Dec AP Mar Jun Sep Dec
2011 17.1 21.9 24.8 30.4 2011 4.5 5.4 9.6 11.8
2012 36.4 40.0 23.1 35.9 2012 11.0 14.1 7.8 9.8
2013 31.6 37.2 52.9 58.8 2013 12.0 12.8 18.6 19.0
2014 77.9 57.4 50.6 60.1 2014 16.2 19.6 14.8 16.7
2015 66.8 56.9 60.5 61.0 2015 17.1 18.2 15.5 20.0
2016 73.3 69.7 2016 20.9 21.0
Grth Mar Jun Sep Dec Grth Mar Jun Sep Dec
2011 2011
2012 112.4% 82.7% -6.6% 18.4% 2012 144.7% 160.3% -19.0% -16.9%
2013 -13.1% -7.0% 128.4% 63.8% 2013 9.5% -8.8% 139.0% 94.6%
2014 146.3% 54.5% -4.3% 2.1% 2014 35.2% 52.7% -20.7% -12.4%
2015 -14.3% -0.9% 19.6% 1.5% 2015 5.7% -7.1% 5.2% 19.9%
2016 9.7% 22.4% 2016 22.2% 15.5%
The revenue increases had an even larger effect on earnings increases. Significant earnings growth has returned.
AEarn Mar Jun Sep Dec Q/Q Mar Jun Sep Dec
2011 13.2 18.3 21.7 24.9 2011
2012 28.1 27.9 13.6 18.3 2012 113% 52% -37% -26%
2013 21.1 29.5 41.2 42.6 2013 -25% 6% 204% 133%
2014 45.2 50.2 43.4 47.1 2014 114% 70% 5% 11%
2015 42.0 44.1 45.5 49.7 2015 -7% -12% 5% 5%
2016 53.0 58.2 2016 26.3% 31.8%
AEPS Mar Jun Sep Dec Q/Q Mar Jun Sep Dec
2011 0.13 0.18 0.23 0.27 2011
2012 0.30 0.30 0.15 0.20 2012 131% 67% -35% -26%
2013 0.24 0.33 0.46 0.48 2013 -20% 10% 207% 140%
2014 0.50 0.56 0.48 0.53 2014 108% 70% 4% 10%
2015 0.47 0.50 0.51 0.58 2015 -6% -11% 6% 9%
2016 0.63 0.69 2016 34.0% 38.0%
Per share numbers are better as they bought back a pretty lot of shares over the past year.
WA Shrs Mar Jun Sep Dec
2011 102.5 103.0 93.5 93.4
2012 94.2 94.2 92.9 90.1
2013 89.0 89.1 89.5 89.7
2014 89.8 89.8 89.9 89.7
2015 89.4 89.1 88.5 86.1
2016 84.7 83.8
Margins have improved as well, moving in the right direction over the past few quarters.
GrPr Mar Jun Sep Dec OpInc Mar Jun Sep Dec
2011 2011 21.1 28.0 33.0 37.3
2012 2012 39.7 41.0 25.0 30.5
2013 2013 23.5 33.2 45.9 47.1
2014 65.6 68.9 61.0 69.0 2014 50.1 52.8 43.6 50.7
2015 66.0 66.1 73.5 79.0 2015 45.2 7.3 59.8 56.4
2016 82.5 89.8 2016 60.1 65.6
GrPr% Mar Jun Sep Dec OpI% Mar Jun Sep Dec
2011 2011
2012 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2012 43.3% 43.3% 40.7% 40.7%
2013 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2013 28.3% 32.8% 35.4% 34.0%
2014 44.2% 44.2% 40.6% 45.1% 2014 33.8% 33.8% 29.1% 33.1%
2015 44.8% 45.5% 48.5% 48.8% 2015 30.7% 5.0% 39.5% 34.8%
2016 49.3% 48.3% 2016 35.9% 35.4%
At $52/share, the 1 year peg is nicely under 1, given the analyst estimates of $2.80 over the next 4 quarters, which very well could be underestimated.
Barring any unforeseen circumstance (I love this recurring Seinfeld line), they should top these estimates, especially with all of the catalysts in place.
Month EPS AEPS AEPS TTM EPS QoQGr Hi Lo Close P/E P/EHi P/ELo 1YrPeg
Mar-11 0.13 0.13
Jun-11 0.18 0.18
Sep-11 0.23 0.23
Dec-11 0.27 0.27 0.81 $23.04 $16.25 $18.23 22.5 28.4 20.1
Mar-12 0.30 0.30 0.98 130.8% $33.97 $17.33 $31.63 32.3 34.7 17.7
Jun-12 0.30 0.30 1.10 66.7% $35.99 $11.19 $14.25 13.0 32.7 10.2
Sep-12 0.15 0.15 1.02 -34.8% $15.26 $7.80 $11.90 11.7 15.0 7.6
Dec-12 0.20 0.20 0.95 -25.9% $13.15 $9.97 $12.14 12.8 13.8 10.5 0.74
Mar-13 0.24 0.24 0.89 -20.0% $16.66 $11.39 $13.72 15.4 18.7 12.8 -1.68
Jun-13 0.33 0.33 0.92 10.0% $20.89 $12.81 $17.54 19.1 22.7 13.9 -1.17
Sep-13 0.46 0.46 1.23 206.7% $37.40 $17.17 $33.59 27.3 30.4 14.0 1.33
Dec-13 0.48 0.48 1.51 140.0% $46.88 $33.61 $45.96 30.4 31.0 22.3 0.52
Mar-14 0.50 0.50 0.50 1.77 108.3% $56.85 $37.50 $45.45 25.7 32.1 21.2 0.26
Jun-14 0.55 0.56 0.56 2.00 69.7% $47.92 $30.50 $45.19 22.6 24.0 15.3 0.19
Sep-14 0.42 0.48 0.48 2.02 4.3% $50.00 $36.98 $37.53 18.6 24.8 18.3 0.29
Dec-14 0.52 0.53 0.53 2.07 10.4% $37.92 $26.98 $29.64 14.3 18.3 13.0 0.39
Mar-15 0.46 0.47 0.47 2.04 -6.0% $32.97 $25.67 $29.55 14.5 16.2 12.6 0.95
Jun-15 0.05 0.50 0.50 1.98 -10.7% $34.28 $25.50 $31.31 15.8 17.3 12.9 -15.81
Sep-15 0.61 0.51 0.51 2.01 -4.2% $37.10 $28.50 $33.89 16.9 18.5 14.2 -34.06
Dec-15 0.57 0.58 0.58 2.06 5.2% $35.96 $28.69 $31.69 15.4 24.8 13.0 -31.84
Mar-16 0.62 0.63 0.63 2.22 34.0% $54.95 $27.94 $35.00 15.8 24.8 12.6 1.79
Jun-16 0.69 0.69 0.69 2.41 38.0% $41.21 $32.06 $38.66 16.0 20.0 12.6 0.74
====================================================================================================
Sep-16 *0.70 2.60 29.4% $64.36 $32.72 $52.00 20.0 24.8 12.6 0.68
Dec-16 *0.70 2.72 32.0% $67.33 $34.23 $52.00 19.1 24.8 12.6 0.60
Mar-17 *0.70 2.79 25.7% $69.06 $35.11 $52.00 18.6 24.8 12.6 0.73
Jun-17 *0.70 2.80 16.2% $69.31 $35.23 $52.00 18.6 24.8 12.6 1.15
*assumes a flat $0.70 in each of the next 4 quarters, which is most likely conservative.
Here is a P/E table using recent historical ranges. It shows what could happen at different levels of earnings & P/Es.
Period TTM $52.00 12.6 16 20 24.8
Today $2.41 21.6 $30.37 $38.56 $48.20 $59.77
Sep-16 $2.60 20.0 $32.76 $41.60 $52.00 $64.48
Dec-16 $2.72 19.1 $34.27 $43.52 $54.40 $67.46
Mar-17 $2.79 18.6 $35.15 $44.64 $55.80 $69.19
Jun-17 $2.80 18.6 $35.28 $44.80 $56.00 $69.44
======================================================
Low $2.60 20.0 $32.76 $41.60 $52.00 $64.48
High $3.00 17.3 $37.80 $48.00 $60.00 $74.40
Their high quality/no sales people business model eliminates a lot of bad behaviors and allows them to focus on their strategy a lot better.
It would be nice to see the stock get back down to its usual quarterly low valuation of 13 or 14 P/E. It doesn’t look like it will this quarter, given better execution and future prospects. But the price hits its recent high of about 24 P/E, we’re looking at a significant gain over the next year or so.
DJ