Poll: Your Performance vs. S&P 500

If you have not yet begun a self-directed account or started too recently to have much track record, I would suggest the last option is appropriate. If you’d like to post a response with your performance and maybe a short blurb, that might be appropriate here…or you could simply click the appropriate button that matches your situation.

For myself, I am at a CAGR of a bit over 23% as of today, for the period beginning in Oct. 2014 (compared to 10.4% for the S&P 500 in the same period). For 2018 YTD, I am at right around 26% compared to 2.0% for the S&P 500. For more information about how to calculate your own CAGR, here’s a free link from The Fool’s Jim Mueller:
https://www.fool.com/about/how-to-calculate-investment-retur…

After 2017 and the start of 2018, Saul must be pushing 28+% as of now for the period going back to 1989 (maybe some number that would sound even more unbelievable/outlandish than 28%).

As a visitor of the Saul’s Investing Discussions message board, my portfolio performance compared to the S&P 500 is…? (I am hoping that number 4 wins, but am curious to see.)

  • Worse than the S&P 500
  • Roughly Equal to the S&P 500
  • Better than the S&P 500 by a non-trivial amount
  • Considerably better than the S&P 500 (>6% better)
  • Either, “I don’t know” or “Why would I measure myself against the S&P 500?”

0 voters

1 Like

You made me go back and look.

In my exclusively “Saul” port which I started moving from cash last April, the gains have been about 77 percent.

In my less aggressive port that uses “Saul” like method but contains larger cap stocks i.e. Amazon, Google, Nvidia and for awhile Facebook as well as CDW. This port was mostly cash except for a (too) small position in Amazon and Google and is still 25 percent cash. This portfolio is up about 5 percent this year. It has not beat the SP 500.

I expect to start upgrading this portfolio this year to a true “Saul” portfolio and my returns should reflect that.

Cheers
Qazulight

1 Like

This is pretty amazing (to me at least).

These numbers come from my Interactive Brokers portfolio report so I trust the numbers.

All of this is comparative TWR

Nov 14 - Mar
My portfolio: +70%
SPX: +43%
Difference: +27%

Started following this board and divulged the KB in late December. Reallocated to a much more concentrated portfolio with many of the stocks covered here (and a few others) I do have 25ish stocks still, so still a work in progress. Also, I use some conservative long term calls, mostly as an educational experience or during high volatility.

Since Jan
My portfolio: +25%
SPX: +2.32%
Difference: +23%

Over the last 3.5 years all but 4% of my out performance has come in the last 3 months which lines up exactly with when I started following this board and strategy.

Saul and Co. I’m 28 years old. You have literally improved my life. Not because money is everything, but because you inspired me to think differently, hyper-focus on a few amazing companies, be brave, and become even more of a Fool.

Thank you all!

-Austin

20 Likes
Fascinating question, with the analysis offering me an underwhelming result and even more motivation for my commitment to continue improving.

Net over my time frame: Kip 14.9%, S&P 15.8% (NOTE: I don't have a concentrated portfolio, yet)

I'm really glad to be here, and I'm really focused on, well, focusing. I need to go read more from Druckenmiller again -- [http://www.businessinsider.com/druckenmiller-on-concentrated...](http://www.businessinsider.com/druckenmiller-on-concentrated-bets-2015-4)

* I've been a Fool customer in one fashion or another since '99, starting with SA
* My current spreadsheets only go back to 1/1/13; going back further would be very challenging
* I became fully self-directed in '08 when I rolled a 401k
* Since then my fabulous 'mutual fund of Kip' holding ~50 stocks is essentially the S&P
* I've spent a LOT of time on this to be less than average
* A cash hedge of 10-20 percent helps me sleep at night, but not my returns
* An index fund would've performed better and been cheaper than my Foolish fees (but I wouldn't be here)
* Since I've started reading this board I've pared my holdings from 55 to 38, with more work to do
* Looking forward, my best returns v S&P have been in '16 and '17, since I found this community

I'm sorry if the formatting on my bullet points is messy, I don't know enough about this chat software to make it more legible. 

- Kip
3 Likes

I guess one could be way up against the S&P500 if s/he has a concentrated portfolio. So when these few are good then it can be very good. But if they turn (you have turn arounds and you have ‘turn back downs’) then they can be much worst.

But most of people here seems to be confident that they can be in the winners at the right time. I have to say that the latest bunch of businesses discussed around here are really good players in expanding/growing markets, and they will continue to grow for a while: cloud to edge computing, big data analytics and integration, Saas, AI, machine learning…that’s the future. It’s like that movie:’ what are you going to do, young man? you ought to go in plastics!'.

tj

Early results are pretty substantially positive through 91 votes, with 84% of respondents beating the index. I hope that there isn’t too much confirmation bias in the voting, with folks being discouraged to click the applicable little button if they’ve done worse than or about equal to the S&P 500.

6% (6 Votes)
Worse than the S&P 500
6% (6 Votes)
Roughly Equal to the S&P 500
13% (12 Votes)
Better than the S&P 500 by a non-trivial amount
71% (65 Votes)
Considerably better than the S&P 500 (>6% better)
2% (2 Votes)
Either, “I don’t know” or “Why would I measure myself against the S&P 500?”

I have to confess to losing to the S&P 500 (21 to 27% for the time frame) BUT, that is largely attributed to that investment portfolio having over 30% bonds and a CD ladder. I went back to when I retired 18 months ago and rolled the pension into the IRA. That is when I started becoming more active in managing and about that time discovered this board.
I initially allocated 20% into Saul and MF small and growth stocks, liquidating overlapping ETF’s to fund them. They are now at 25% and growing. It is exciting and I might become a more focused investor yet. I will still sleep well with a healthy reserve not invested in the market.

Portfolio top gainers:
SHOP* 4.5% Longest held and best performer
LGIH* 2.77% I trimmed when Saul sold, but I still like their numbers
ANET 2% I was a bit late coming on
PAYC* 1.5% I trimmed this when Saul sold but have been happy holding
ATVI* 1.5% I’m not a gamer but this has been
ALIGN* 1.1% Working on a triple here
AYX 2.2% Since Saul was so excited I had to join in
SPLK 1%
HUBS1%
TEAM 1%

*100%+
Then there all those Discovery/Rising Star stocks I signed up for last year. I put those on autopilot, will reevaluate in due time.

Most of the rest of my portfolio is too boring for this board, relying on ETF’s to diversify.

Thanks to all of you who really know what you’re doing. I regret not having any insights to share, crunching numbers has never been my thing.

2 Likes

BUT, that is largely attributed to that investment portfolio having over 30% bonds and a CD ladder. I went back to when I retired 18 months ago and rolled the pension into the IRA.

Recognizing that the bonds and CD laddering are not part of the “Saul-type investing”, you could have excluded those portions from the calculation. As the generator of the poll, that would have been more in the spirit of gaining the intended information (and would not have been considered “gaming” the calculation by me).

6% (8 Votes)
Worse than the S&P 500
5% (7 Votes)
Roughly Equal to the S&P 500
15% (19 Votes)
Better than the S&P 500 by a non-trivial amount
69% (88 Votes)
Considerably better than the S&P 500 (>6% better)
3% (4 Votes)
Either, “I don’t know” or “Why would I measure myself against the S&P 500?”

Seeing 84% beating the S&P 500 out of the first 126 respondents is quite encouraging, even recognizing that there is likely a bias amongst those who have actually clicked one of the buttons. It definitely doesn’t discourage me from continuing along the path of being a “stock picker” investing in individual companies. I’d like to think that this poll (despite its highly unscientific nature) does a fair job of showing that, yes, it is very much possible to beat the S&P 500 as an individual investor/stock picker…as long as you are willing to put in sufficient work to gain the level of understanding and temperament necessary to achieve such a (worthy) goal.

-volfan84
May w-e all have higher returns than the Bogleheads (who admittedly do have the advantage of “Set it and forget it”)

Recognizing that the bonds and CD laddering are not part of the “Saul-type investing”, you could have excluded those portions from the calculation. As the generator of the poll, that would have been more in the spirit of gaining the intended information (and would not have been considered “gaming” the calculation by me). <<

I wanted to play fair so I used the entire portfolio, but if I reported say just the Discovery2017 stocks, I killed the S&P, up over 40% in less than a year. That is skewed because I am overweight in SHOP, thanks to Saul and this board.

Steve

I’m one of the “Why would I measure myself against the S&P” votes (BTW, I do know and it’s way much better than the S&P).

But, I don’t care . . . I have an annual target, 20%. I’m doing much better than my target, but I don’t have the years of measured experience to brag about it. But I really don’t have any concern about a benchmark or my performance as measured against anything except my target.

If I can maintain 20% or better on an annual basis, I’ve reached (or exceeded) my goal. That’s the only thing that matters to me.

Oh yeah, does anyone know the last time the S&P went up 20% in a year?