I look at my account and see green on almost all my stocks, with some up 4% to 6%, and I think that if I was out of the market in cash I couldn’t stand it. It’s just my temperament. This is what works for me. As I said earlier, there is every possibility that the world won’t come to an end in 2016. I can use my head to buy good companies, and do it well, but predicting when the market will go up or down is not my thing.
Saul
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I can use my head to buy good companies, and do it well, but predicting when the market will go up or down is not my thing.
Saul, I couldn’t say that better myself. Many thanks to you, and Neil, and others, showing us temperament and discipline really matter.
Best,
–Kevin
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This is what works for me
That’s the key statement.
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January 5th I opened a new position with SWKS.
Yesterday, when the market plunged down 400 to 500 points I more than doubled the position.
Today I feel good that I bought. My SWKS Holding is up 8% since inception.
I like the longer term prospects for SWKS. In hind site I of course wish I had bought more. Maybe I still will.
Year to date this company is still down 17%.
Longer term there is plenty of upside.
Wish I could know what tomorrow will bring 
Frank
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He takes incredible STRENGTH and SELF DISCIPLINE to have the wisdom to not sell in a down and scary market but rather use it as a wonderful buying opportunity. This is a classic time that illustrates the wisdom of what Saul has been doing for decades quite successfully. This is also a time that differentiates true wise investing versus the scare tactics and fear and futility of market timing.
Jim
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Of the 21 holdings I own, All but 2 are in the green. Those 2 are AMBA
and NFLX. They are down.
Four other positions that I own have been crushed for a long time.
They are oil related companies. Surely oil prices will eventually go up I have hoped. My oil stocks are up today which seems like they are going in the right direction, but I have seen this before.
In hindsite I have often wished I never got in to these. But I have not been able to bring myself to abandon the idea that oil will rebound.
I could still sell out now. Maybe I should. Put the money somewhere better.
Hmmm, argh,
Frank
But wasn’t the whole point to sell before or near the start of a bigger down move? That would leave lots more capital to buy stuff even if you were a little late. Eating from the middle of the buffet can work pretty well
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some up 4% to 6%, and I think that if I was out of the market in cash I couldn’t stand it.
I have two that are up 12.5% and 15.8%. These are energy related. I sold half of my position in one of them last month. I have sold half of my position in NYCB and SAFT which have stable businesses and good dividends. I am o.k. with the volatility and that 12.5% pop hasn’t ruined my day. I am just reinvesting as slowly as I can, trying not to rush. Buying SWKS, INFN and others, mostly on days when they are down at the opening.
I guess this is “modified timing”, just as you are “modified buy and hold”. The ability to do “modified timing” in a tax deferred account is one advantage that the individual has over the “smart money”. Of course, this is something that you have practiced, too. Massive moves in and out is too difficult for me.
KC
Wow. Just a week ago I was yelled at for responding to a post about market timing “which didn’t belong on this board”, and now here is another post about, uh, “market timing.”
For the record, every single stock I still own is in the green. Of course that’s not hard when you’re evaluating at the end of a 7 year bull market, is it? (In 1999 everyone was a genius.) For the other record, you know, the one about the “market timing” where I divested most of my IRA and Mrs Goofy’s IRA a week or two back - every single one of those is also “in the green”, even though they’re now in cash. I could buy them all back, in all the same quantities, and have a lot of extra cash left over.
And I will, but just not quite yet. I suspect the volatility will continue, at least for another week or two.
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