Another day with enough NYSE 52w lows & few enough 52w highs to set another ‘simple detector’ minor bottom. Given the now protracted war in the Ukraine & the potential for robust diplomacy between the various large economies (US & EU, China) it’s tough to believe that it’ll be the last such bottom even if the next few days could be relatively better. I suspect patience (perhaps vast patience) could be a virtue before further investing funds (usually declines of this magnitude put in at least one major bottom of -33.33% in the detector).
[NYSE NHs (32) - NYSE NLs (724)] / Total traded (3457) = -20.02% < -16.67% => Minor Bottom
Another day with enough NYSE 52w lows & few enough 52w highs to set another ‘simple detector’ minor bottom. Given the now protracted war in the Ukraine & the potential for robust diplomacy between the various large economies (US & EU, China) it’s tough to believe that it’ll be the last such bottom even if the next few days could be relatively better. I suspect patience (perhaps vast patience) could be a virtue before further investing funds (usually declines of this magnitude put in at least one major bottom of -33.33% in the detector).
[NYSE NHs (32) - NYSE NLs (724)] / Total traded (3457) = -20.02% < -16.67% => Minor Bottom
the 724 value for NLs was for NASDAQ, the NLs value for NYSE was only 183. (After refreshing the page the numbers are now slightly different.) Also I can’t match the NH number. Could you please advise the source of the data you use for NHs and NLs.
the 724 value for NLs was for NASDAQ, the NLs value for NYSE was only 183. (After refreshing the page the numbers are now slightly different.) Also I can’t match the NH number. Could you please advise the source of the data you use for NHs and NLs.
That’s interesting. The data source I’ve been using is the WSJ Markets Diary Summary (which was the recommended source from the collator of the historical data back to 2005 which I used). https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/marketsdiary
The Monday data is still there to look at. Perhaps it’s just the exchange data only, either way the barcharts’ data is certainly different.
(It’s also possible I’m misinterpreting the New Lows data & have the period incorrect, any corrections would be appreciated.)
The barcharts numbers I referenced for new lows I think came from the 2,221 total, so that would account for the difference in NLs between WSJ and Barcharts.
As an example from Barcharts, if no common stocks are exclude, ACR is listed once, if non common stocks are include, there are five variations of ACR.
So, I don’t think there is misinterpretation of the data, just different data from different sources
Thanks aussi & 4321rewq (very anonymous handle there). It seems the WSJ / Factset numbers are NYSE traded entities rather than common stocks per-se. If anything that would slightly magnify the NH/NL data (as in the ETFs would hit lows at similar timing to the common stocks)? I’m not sure if this invalidates the detector, but it’s worth keeping in mind.
The detector is not supposed to be overly sophisticated or even the best performing one available. It’s intended to be about as easy a detector that one can run when interested and seems far better than no detector. It was a starting point that worked so well I didn’t bother to further improve it - partly because Jim is so generous with sharing the output of his more sophisticated detector. Part of the reason I post the output (of this extremely simple option) is so Jim chimes in with the output of his!
(It appears to work fairly well - perhaps not in a strictly mechanical sense but rather in a ‘now is a great time to pay attention’ - I’ll look for a good way to share the output in chart form as Jim has so generously in the past.)
And here’s the graph of the detector’s output since late-2005. This is the 16.67%/33.33% ‘stable’ version. https://imgur.com/oBLWeh5
The vertical scale is logarithmic. Unfortunately LibreOffice doesn’t yet add incremental ticks / lines yet for logarithmic scales - it’s in development for a near-term stable release.