Are you really holding ZM through the earnings? are you expecting them to beat and raise?
tj, you must be kidding. Of course I’m “really” holding ZM through the earnings. I don’t think I’ve ever sold out of a company “before earnings” in my life. I take positions in companies to hold indefinitely, until the story changes. Nothing has changed yet for Zoom.
Am I expecting a beat and raise? Of course I’m expecting a beat and raise! Can you remember when one of our SaaS companies hasn’t beat its estimates, even once? I can’t. I don’t know what Zoom estimated (if they did) because I don’t pay attention to estimates unless they are accompanied by all sorts of apologies (like Nutanix, for instance), but I just “googled revenue estimates for ZM” to help me answer your question, and I got $111.66 million as the consensus.
Now the last three quarters they rose sequentially by $15 million, $15 million, and $16 million (From $60 to $75 to $90 to $106 million). Do you think they’ll beat $111 million? It’s laughable. If you add another $16 million on the last quarter’s $106 million you get $122 million (up 103%). That beats the estimate by $11 million! If you give them a little nudge because of all the amazing publicity their IPO got (and imagine people reading about them and saying to themselves “Growing over 115%. They must be the best and have something special. I think I’ll try them.”) and say that was worth an extra 2% revenue, up to $124 million, and we are looking at up 107%. (On the other hand, we don’t know whether there is seasonality with the first quarter, so I’ll be happy with the $122 million, or even a little less). Yes, I expect a beat and raise!
Saul