Bear's Portfolio through 07/2021

PaulWBryant · July 31, 2021, 9:51am


**Port Return**
Jan +7.3% YTD
Feb +6.7% YTD
Mar +2.0% YTD
Apr +9.8% YTD
May +12.4% YTD
Jun +29.2% YTD
Jul +33.9% YTD

**Port Changes**
Ticker	Curr%	June	May	Apr	Mar	Feb	Jan
DOCU	15.7%	16.1%	9.9%	10.8%	10.5%	11.1%	11.3%
DDOG	14.4%	15.0%	17.7%	14.7%	12.9%	8.6%	0.0%
CRWD	14.1%	12.9%	18.7%	14.6%	15.8%	12.9%	14.5%
UPST	13.8%	10.8%	5.2%	5.3%	6.1%	3.9%	0.0%
LSPD	9.0%	8.6%	6.1%	5.2%	4.5%	1.3%	0.0%
ZS	6.6%	6.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
SNOW	6.6%	7.0%	7.9%	9.9%	5.0%	0.0%	0.0%
cash	19.8%	20.7%	20.7%	6.2%	5.9%	16.6%	32.6%

**MTD and YTD performance for each holding**
Ticker	Mo Ch	YTD Ch
DOCU	6.6%	34.1%
DDOG	6.4%	12.5%
CRWD	0.9%	19.7%
UPST	-3.3%	196.3%
LSPD	2.3%	21.5%
ZS	9.2%	18.1%
SNOW	9.9%	-5.6%

July Summary: My portfolio looks very much the same as last month, except I sold the last of my Cloudflare. I’m also no longer counting 2U as a position (it’s just options – which are off topic – and 0.1% of my portfolio). I’m down to 7 positions.
In July I added to Crowdstrike and Upstart and Lightspeed, and I slightly trimmed Docusign, Datadog, Snowflake, and Zscaler. More about all this below.

Docusign (DOCU)
11/30/2020: 227.88 (Market Cap Approx: $47b, TTM Revenue: $1.164b)
12/31/2020: $222.30 (Market Cap Approx: $47b, TTM Revenue: $1.297b)
01/29/2021: $232.89 (Market Cap Approx: $49b, TTM Revenue: $1.297b)
02/26/2021: $226.66 (Market Cap Approx: $48b, TTM Revenue: $1.297b)
03/31/2021: $202.45 (Market Cap Approx: $43b, TTM Revenue: $1.453b)
04/30/2021: $222.94 (Market Cap Approx: $47b, TTM Revenue: $1.453b)
05/28/2021: $201.62 (Market Cap Approx: $42b, TTM Revenue: $1.453b)
06/30/2021: $279.57 (Market Cap Approx: $59b, TTM Revenue: $1.625b)
07/30/2021: $298.04 (Market Cap Approx: $63b, TTM Revenue: $1.625b)

Docusign continued slightly higher in July after a killer report sent it soaring in June: https://discussion.fool.com/docusign-remembered-34853893.aspx I still believe this one to be undervalued, personally, and haven’t been able to bring myself to trim much, even though it is now quite a large position.

Datadog (DDOG)
02/26/2021: $95.41 (Market Cap Approx: $33b, TTM Revenue: $604m)
03/31/2021: $83.34 (Market Cap Approx: $29b, TTM Revenue: $604m)
04/30/2021: $85.77 (Market Cap Approx: $30b, TTM Revenue: $604m)
05/28/2021: $91.05 (Market Cap Approx: $31b, TTM Revenue: $671m)
06/30/2021: $104.08 (Market Cap Approx: $36b, TTM Revenue: $671m)
07/30/2021: $110.70 (Market Cap Approx: $38b, TTM Revenue: $671m)

Expecting great quarterly results for Datadog next week! I’ve trimmed a tiny bit, but this remains a very large position.

Crowdstrike (CRWD)
10/31/2020: $123.84 (Market Cap Approx: $27b, TTM Revenue: $654m)
12/04/2020: $167.26 (Market Cap Approx: $36b, TTM Revenue: $654m)
12/31/2020: $211.82 (Market Cap Approx: $50b, TTM Revenue: $762m)
01/29/2021: $215.80 (Market Cap Approx: $51b, TTM Revenue: $762m)
02/26/2021: $216.00 (Market Cap Approx: $51b, TTM Revenue: $762m)
03/31/2021: $182.51 (Market Cap Approx: $43b, TTM Revenue: $875m)
04/30/2021: $208.51 (Market Cap Approx: $50b, TTM Revenue: $875m)
05/28/2021: $222.15 (Market Cap Approx: $53b, TTM Revenue: $875m)
06/30/2021: $251.31 (Market Cap Approx: $60b, TTM Revenue: $999m)
07/30/2021: $253.61 (Market Cap Approx: $61b, TTM Revenue: $999m)

Even near all time highs, I couldn’t resist adding a tiny bit back to Crowdstrike in July. The stock was basically flat by month’s end, although it has been up at times. I didn’t like seeing the allocation so much lower than my top 2, so I bumped it up.

Upstart (UPST)
02/26/2021: $65.64 Market Cap Approx: $4.8b, TTM Revenue: $234m)
03/31/2021: $128.86 (Market Cap Approx: $12b, TTM Revenue: $234m)
04/30/2021: $109.02 (Market Cap Approx: $10b, TTM Revenue: $234m)
05/28/2021: $148.22 (Market Cap Approx: $14b, TTM Revenue: $291m)
06/30/2021: $124.90 (Market Cap Approx: $12b, TTM Revenue: $291m)
07/30/2021: $120.76 (Market Cap Approx: $11b, TTM Revenue: $291m)

Upstart is the position I’ve added to most this month. Am I 100% confident in them? Probably not to the level of my top 3. But Upstart has more upside potential than just about anything right now, and I can’t find any problems with the company. I’m willing to accept the risks as I think they will crush it when they report earnings on August 10th.

Lightspeed (LSPD)
02/26/2021: $68.42 (Market Cap Approx: $8.1b, TTM Revenue: $176m)
03/31/2021: $62.81 (Market Cap Approx: $7.4b, TTM Revenue: $176m)
04/30/2021: $69.81 (Market Cap Approx: $8.2b, TTM Revenue: $176m)
05/28/2021: $71.99 (Market Cap Approx: $8.9b, TTM Revenue: $222m)
06/30/2021: $83.61 (Market Cap Approx: $10b, TTM Revenue: $222m)
07/30/2021: $85.53 (Market Cap Approx: $11b, TTM Revenue: $222m)

Lightspeed reports earnings this Thursday. I added slightly, but I want to see what they report before I adjust further. I think it will be great, as they’ve been busy. But Covid troubles can mean trouble for Lightspeed and their customers. Hoping for the best…we’ll just have to see.

ZScaler (ZS)
05/28/2021: $194.20 (Market Cap Approx: $28b, TTM Revenue: $536m)
06/30/2021: $216.06 (Market Cap Approx: $32b, TTM Revenue: $602m)
07/30/2021: $235.91 (Market Cap Approx: $34b, TTM Revenue: $602m)

Zscaler was up almost as much as Snowflake in July – about 9%. Since I’m still getting comfortable with it, I trimmed it a bit to keep the size in check. Things could be accelerating for them with all the push for more cybersecurity…but I want to see the next set of numbers from the company (in September) before making any big adjustments.

Snowflake (SNOW)
03/31/2021: $229.28 (Market Cap Approx: $68b, TTM Revenue: $592m)
04/30/2021: $231.59 (Market Cap Approx: $68b, TTM Revenue: $592m)
05/28/2021: $238.03 (Market Cap Approx: $71b, TTM Revenue: $712m)
06/30/2021: $241.80 (Market Cap Approx: $72b, TTM Revenue: $712m)
07/30/2021: $265.72 (Market Cap Approx: $79b, TTM Revenue: $712m)

As I said last month, Snowflake is probably just being conservative with their FY guidance, and perhaps they’ll raise it more in future quarters than they did last quarter, but I will be looking for this and frankly need to see it. I was surprised to see it up around 10% this month, the most of my 7 stocks, and so I trimmed slightly just to keep my position modest going into a very important quarterly report (which we should see in late August).

Cloudflare (NET)
10/31/2020: $51.97 (Market Cap Approx: $16b, TTM Revenue: $349m)
12/04/2020: $77.35 (Market Cap Approx: $23b, TTM Revenue: $389m)
12/31/2020: $75.99 (Market Cap Approx: $23b, TTM Revenue: $389m)
01/29/2021: $76.66 (Market Cap Approx: $23b, TTM Revenue: $389m)
02/26/2021: $73.97 (Market Cap Approx: $23b, TTM Revenue: $431m)
03/31/2021: $70.26 (Market Cap Approx: $22b, TTM Revenue: $431m)
04/30/2021: $84.74 (Market Cap Approx: $26b, TTM Revenue: $431m)
05/28/2021: $82.06 (Market Cap Approx: $25b, TTM Revenue: $478m)
06/30/2021: $105.84 (Market Cap Approx: $33b, TTM Revenue: $478m)
07/30/2021: $118.63 (Market Cap Approx: $37b, TTM Revenue: $478m)

Even though I sold out, this one is too interesting not to include. You can read what I said last month, and you will know why I sold out of Cloudflare this month. (The reason was the valuation.) I will never try to time the market and get out of all my positions and go to cash. But I will trim or sell some positions in favor of others (including cash, which I consider a position). It makes sense to be opportunistic, in my opinion. I can’t own all the good companies – no reason to own one where I don’t foresee strong returns in the near future, when I can sell it and put that money into something where I do foresee a lot of appreciation (like Upstart).

Closing Thoughts

This may sound weird to many Fools, but I’ve been trying to trade a bit more lately. As I just said in the Cloudflare section, why not be opportunistic? We’ve proven an ability to understand the value in these companies better than the market does – otherwise how could we have had such great returns? Why not go the extra mile and constantly be adjusting positions opportunistically? (At least in tax deferred accounts) I won’t get every move right, but I bet I get more right than wrong.

But that’s just what works for me. Some equally (or far more) intelligent investors who hang around these parts don’t want to be so active. And that works for them, which is A-OK with me! However you are managing your portfolio, I wish you the best in August and beyond!

Bear

“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it … he who doesn’t … pays it.” - Attributed to Albert Einstein

BroadwayDan · August 3, 2021, 8:16am

This may sound weird to many Fools, but I’ve been trying to trade a bit more lately. As I just said in the Cloudflare section, why not be opportunistic? We’ve proven an ability to understand the value in these companies better than the market does – otherwise how could we have had such great returns? Why not go the extra mile and constantly be adjusting positions opportunistically? (At least in tax deferred accounts) I won’t get every move right, but I bet I get more right than wrong.

This is among my favorite things I have read in Fooldom. And it perfectly captures what I look for in the investors I value highest and leaders I invest in. It’s backed by a long track record, confident but tempered with humility, radical but not hyperbolic. That one can “time” the market, trade in and out of picks successfully, is treated by many in Fooldom as fantastical, like a Bigfoot. But it’s real.

I sincerely wish the Fool had a Hall of Fame so the contributions of the greats could be properly rewarded.

xenotedvr1 · August 3, 2021, 6:59pm

I could not agree or rec more!
Following a few companies closely for long enough, it is definitely possible to get a “feel” for them and valuation. I am not nimble or confident enough to trade all the way out of one that is still performing tho. So I end up with a “core” position(s), and a few “trading” positions.
The upside is not missing gains. The downside is I end up with a few more companies than ideal for me at times. Like most things, it is a balancing act.