Denny, are you calculating where companies are at on the S Curve? If so how?
No.
The "S curve applies to the growth of technologies, not to individual companies selling them. But because they are selling them they go along for the ride if they don’t otherwise mess up. If you look at Apple’s chart you are likely to detect several “S” formations that correspond to the various iProducts. The same applied to the several generations of disk drives.
I don’t actually calculate anything, I use the “S” curve as my mental model of how growth stocks grow, all else being equal. There are always articles about how fast various technologies are being adopted, companies report their growth rates. It all helps create a mental picture but I don’t actually do any calculations.
While mathematics underlies everything we do, the system we are dealing with is way too complex for simple formulas to yield the winning answer. If there were such formulas we would all be stinking rich. Maybe one day AI will be able to do it but for now I rely mostly on educated guesswork. The only place where I use a ton of predictive arithmetic is in my Covered Call Selector where you have hard numbers to work with, stock price, strike price, premium, and days to expiration. But even there I look at charts to see if the omen is good or bad. LOL
Denny Schlesinger