earnings boil-downs, thus far

Here are my earnings “boil-downs” on the 1/2 of Saul-related companies that reported thus far (still waiting on OKTA, MDB, ZS, NTNX and NVDA) plus some others discussed here.

Saul stocks: TTD, AYX, TWLO, SQ, NEWR, PAYC
Others discussed here: SHOP (own it), ANET, MELI, PYPL, TEAM, ABMD

TTD - Q318
https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/11/08/the-trade-desk-kee…
https://www.fool.com/premium/coverage/investing/2018/11/09/7…

cc: https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2018/11/08/th…
starrob cc notes: https://discussion.fool.com/4056/q3-2018-results-earnings-call-t…
cc bits: https://discussion.fool.com/all-if-you-have-the-time-to-read-jef…

Revenue 118.8M +49.6%
EBITDA 36.8M +50%
EPS 0.44 +99%
Adj EPS 0.65 +97%
Cash 166M
OpEx 97M +59%

int’l spend > domestic
signed up 3 of top 200 global advertisers - expect spend to grow from here
95% cust retention rate

Mobile ad +65%, deceleration from 89% seq
… 46% of Q spend
Connected TV (CTV) up 10x YoY
Audio ad +192%
Mobile video +98%
Mobile in-app +90%
Data spend +70%

… strong momo for programmatic, media is fragmenting
… no walled gardens in CTV, # advertisers using it doubled
AT&T Xandr (AppNexus) - largest CTV open market exchange

progressing in Asia and Europe
Spain +380%, Germany +206%, HK and Auz grew >100%
new partnershp with Tencent Social Ads (prior ones with Baidu and Alibaba)
GDPR been a net positive (TTD gained trust, customers)

AYX - Q318
https://www.fool.com/premium/rule-breakers/coverage/1069/cov…

cc: https://www.fool.com/premium/coverage/earnings/call-transcri…
Starrob cc recap: https://discussion.fool.com/4056/q3-2018-earnings-conference-cal…
Starrob cc Q&A: https://discussion.fool.com/4056/q3-2018-earnings-conference-cal…
ethan cc notes: https://discussion.fool.com/ayx-q3-cc-notes-34056703.aspx

Revenue 54.2 +59% !!! accelerating
GAAP income -0.2M
GAAP EPS 0.00
Adj Net income 5.3M
Adj EPS 0.08 (swung positive)
CFFO 4.6M
Cash 414M +113%
Gross Margins 90.5% > +700bps
… expect to lower w/ support & pro svcs

Customers 4315 +41%, +375 this Q
… >1/4 of Global 2000 are custs
$NRR 131% !!! (>130 for 8 Qs now)
Employees 756 +47%, +12% seq

Int’l rev 15.7M +99% (29% of rev), across >70 countries
… strong in LatinAm and Auz after S&M moves (mktg push in Brazil, bought out Auz distributor)
… Most marketing efforts geo based but starting to isolate select verticals to focus on like govt & healthcare

Highest Net Promoter Score ever (# not given)
Uses its own products for sales insights
No price pressures

2 audiences, using R&D to help address both audiences (citizen scientists vs statisticians) as needs are very different
(TAM ~30M citizen scientists vs 1.5M statisticians)

2018.3 release
https://www.alteryx.com/products/platform-details/whats-new

  • new Python tool allows Jupyter notebooks within workflow
  • Visualytics workflow viz
    … diff than Tableau or Qlik dashboards, not just end result but visualizes whole workflow, model health
    … avail throughout entire AYX platform
  • caching avail in workflow pipeline, can freeze data at any point
  • add’l support for Oracle and SAP HANA
  • built in Apache Spark support for pipeline, into Databricks on Azure and Azure’s HDInsight platform (Hadoop+Spark+Kafka)
  • enterprise server features like job prioritization and geo job routing

… Microsoft & Azure is a heavy partner. Possible eye to acquire?
… Python is a major add for data scientists audience, allows integrating existing algorithms and models from your Analytics team into workflow

TWLO - Q318
https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/11/08/twilio-inc-earning…
Bert’s take: https://www.tickertarget.com/twilio-an-overvalued-stock-that…
Saul take: https://discussion.fool.com/twilio-category-crusher-juggernaut-3…

cc: https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2018/11/06/tw…
stenlis cc notes: https://discussion.fool.com/twlo-notes-from-q3-conference-call-3…

Revenue 169M +68% !!! accelerating
Base Rev 154M +68%
GAAP income -27.1M
GAAP EPS -0.28
Adj income 4.3M
Adj EPS 0.07 (swung positive)
R&D exp 42.3M (25% of revenue, dropping)
Customers 61150 +31.5%, +6.6% seq !!!
$NRR 145% !!! accelerating

Moving into larger new HQ 2019
Added new Chief Trust & Security Officer

Twilio Flex - new control center application platform
… early Flex users Shopify and Lyft making programmatic control centers in record time
… IoT integration for agents to view
Twilio Pay - accepts payments over Voice platform
Autopilot - conversational hub w/ natural lang processing

New acquisition SendGrid for email services for $2B (P/S 14)
https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/10/17/twilio-gobbles-up-…
SendGrid also crushed earnings
Revenue 35.7M +32%
EPS -0.01
Gross margins 75.3% +220bps

SHOP - Q318
https://www.fool.com/premium/coverage/investing/2018/10/26/t…
Saul take: https://discussion.fool.com/shop-q3-results-34043986.aspx

cc: https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2018/10/25/sh…
Starrob cc notes: https://discussion.fool.com/4056/shop-q3-2018-earnings-conferenc…

Revenue $270M +58% (62% last Q)
Gross Profit 150M +50% (58% last Q)
Op income -31.4M (below guidance)
Net income -23.2M -147%
EPS -0.22 vs -0.09

Sub rev 120.5M +46% (55% last Q)
Merch Solutions rev 149.5M +68%
…Shopify Capital and Shopify Shipping doubled YoY
MRR 37.9M +41% (49% last Q)
MRR = 14% of Rev)
Shopify Plus 9.2M +20% (24% of MRR)
MRR of Plus +74%
GMV 10B +55%
GPV 4.1B (41% of GMV +400bps)
OpEx 181M +61%
… heavy spending on global expansion

New storefront in Los Angeles CA, to showcase tech & svcs, merchant support
New fraud protect program for payments to US sellers (protects against fraudulent charge backs)
New recreational cannabis stores in Canada

Launched “Locations” - multi-location inventory platform
New App Store
New marketing dashboard
Shopify AR

Mobile = 77% of traffic and 67% of orders
Capital issues 76M in merchant cash advs +73% (82% last Q)

Bear looks at Q3 - still R&D spend
https://discussion.fool.com/shopify-sep2018-quarter-34047629.asp…
Plus MRR is helping
https://discussion.fool.com/saul-i-believe-those-are-the-thread-…
Subscription revenue breakdown
https://discussion.fool.com/i-may-be-reconsidering-my-statement-…
Pros and cons of trends
https://discussion.fool.com/yeh-this-mind-bending-struggle-is-no…

SQ - Q318
https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/11/08/a-sixth-quarter-of…
https://www.fool.com/premium/one/coverage/18/coverage/update…
Cochrane take: https://discussion.fool.com/square-reports-2018-q3-earnings-3405…

cc: https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2018/11/07/sq…

(Organic = w/o recent Weebly and Zesty acquisitions)

Revenue 882.1M +51%
… +46% organic
Adj Revenue 431M +68%
… +56% organic
… accelerating for 6 Qs !!!
Adj EBITDA margin 16% +300bps
Gross Profit +50%
Net Income 19.6M vs -16.1M
EPS 0.04
… swung positive but due to investment gain in Eventbrite (EB)

Sub & svcs rev 166M +155%
… 141M +117% organic
Loans 405M +34% in 62k loans
… Square Capital
Hardware rev +74%
… Square Register, Reader, Stand, and new Terminal

GPV 22.5B +29%
Tx profit of GPV 1.07% +2bps
Virtual Terminal web pay 780M of GPV +120%
Cash 1.8B

New Square Terminal hardware
Square Reader SDK for custom app devel
Square Installment - purchase financing for buyers, split into fixed monthly payments

NEWR - Q219
https://www.fool.com/premium/coverage/investing/2018/11/07/n…
bear’s take: https://discussion.fool.com/new-relic-sep-2018-quarter-34055883…

Revenue 114.9M +35.7%
Gross Profit 96.4M +39.8%
OpEx 102M +21.7%
Non-GAAP Op Income 9.7M vs -3.5M (1/2 due to acct chg)
Non-GAAP EPS 0.20 vs -0.06 swung positive

Int’l 32% of rev

Customers 17000
High level custs >100k 786 +34%
$NRR 124%

Aquire CoScale (Belgium) kubernetes monitoring
https://techcrunch.com/2018/10/11/new-relic-acquires-belgium…

PAYC - Q318
https://www.fool.com/premium/coverage/investing/2018/11/01/p…
bear’s take: https://discussion.fool.com/paycom39s-sep-2018-quarter-34050436…

cc: https://www.fool.com/premium/coverage/earnings/call-transcri…

Revenue $133.3 +32%
Op Income +65%
Adj Income 30.6M +22%
Adj EPS 0.52 +32%
Net cash $50.2M

  • S&M Exp up due to national ad campaign
  • Targeting larger customers now, 50-5000 employees (was 50-2000)

ANET - Q319
https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/11/03/record-earnings-he…
cc: https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2018/11/01/ar…

Revenue 563.3 +29%, +8.4% seq
Net income 171.3M +26%
Adj EPS 2.08 +24%

Product rev 485M +28%
Service rev 78M +36%
gross margins 64.6%
R&D exp +48%

growth spurt coming
https://discussion.fool.com/bert-on-anet-34036364.aspx
first 400G switches
https://discussion.fool.com/anet-arista-announces-first-400g-swi…

MELI - Q318
https://www.fool.com/premium/coverage/investing/2018/11/04/m…

cc: https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2018/11/01/me…

Revenue 355.3M +17%, +58% CCURR
Net income -10.1M
EPS -0.23 <<< swung negative
Gross billings 462.8M +25%, +48% CCURR

  • top line growth appears muted due to tax change
    Confirmed users 249M +24%
    Items sold 84M +13%
    Payment tx 104M +67% !!!
  • item sold drag due to new Brazil minimums due to new minimum shipping chg
  • more off-platform chgs than on- in Pago
  • got fin-svcs approval in Brazil, now can make loans to merchants
  • full suite of fin-svc products in Argentina

is MELI the LatinAm SQ?? !!!
anthonyms on MELI shifting to fintech: https://discussion.fool.com/mercadolibre-implications-for-sqshop…

  • offline fintech growing at triple digits

TPV 4.6B +24.1%, +69.5% CCURR
TPTx 103.9M +66.7%
Off-platform payments +87.8%, +152.1% CCURR
MercadoPago processed more off-platform payments than on MELI marketplace
Mobile POS +636% CURR in year, now 46.5% of off-platform payments
Active wallet users >1M
Wallet pay use up triple digits in Argen, Brazil, MX
Argentina first country w/ complete fintech solution - mobile POS, QR pay, mobile wallet, asset mgmt.

TEAM - Q119
https://www.fool.com/premium/coverage/investing/2018/10/19/a…
jimbo take: https://discussion.fool.com/atlassian-team-34046083.aspx

cc: https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2018/10/18/at…

Revenue 237.3M +36.7%
Adj Net Income 49.2M +54%
Adj EPS 0.20
Sub rev 134.1M +55%
Maint rev 92.7M +21.7%
License rev 21.8M +12.3%
Other rev 18.7M +39%
CFFO 84.9M

Gross margin 86% +200bps
Customers 131k +6k
Cash 1.6B

acquired OpsGenie for $295M
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-04/atlassian…

PYPL - Q318
https://discussion.fool.com/paypal-reports-2018-q3-earnings-3403…

cc: https://discussion.fool.com/paypal-2018-q3-conference-call-notes…

Revenue 3683M +14%
EPS - GAAP 0.36 +17%, Non-GAAP 0.58 +26%
Active accts +15%
Payment tx +27%
Payment tx per active acct +9%
Total Pay vol 143B +24%
Mobile Pay vol 57B +45% !!!
Venmo TPV 17B +78% !!!

ABMD - Q219

https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/11/02/abiomed-pumps-out-…

Revenue +37% … US +34%, Int’l +67%
EPS 1.09 +102% (tax gain)
Gross Margin 83.6%
Impella reorder rates 100%
Cash bal $410M

-muji (long SQ, TTD, NTNX, ZS, OKTA, TWLO, MDB, AYX, & SHOP)

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