HorsePlayAndrew Update July 2021

HorsePlayAndrew · August 4, 2021, 3:41pm

Summary

A frustrating monthly performance. It started off strongly but then most of my companies took a nosedive south, which pretty much sums up this year so far!

My background

See details here. https://discussion.fool.com/horseplayandrew-update-nov-2020-from…

Performance to date

2021 > 15%
2020 > 209%

January > 29%
February > 23%
March > 1.7%
April > -6%
May > 11%
June >21%
July >15%

Upstart - 22.61%
Roku - 17.29%
Crowdstrike - 11.97%
Datadog - 10.64%
Fiver - 10.24%
Docusign - 7.98%
Sea - 7.58%
Fubo - 6.65%
Stem - 5.05%

July 2021 Activity

SOLD

Pinterest As I expressed in my last update, I was nervous about this position so reduced it but clearly not enough! It was a gut punch to lose over 20% but I have learnt from Saul et al that when the story changes to cut your losses. Until Pinterest can show an upward trend again in their MAU I won’t be a holder regardless of the strength internationally and their ARPU. I will watch closely as I like their story and the evolving social commerce trend.

Alterian I finally lost patience. This stock has been in freefall and still shows no signs of stopping. The market doesn’t like them and my conviction isn’t strong enough to keep watching it. My money is better off elsewhere until they can convince the market that their growth is sustainable and they have a new model that is the future of e-commerce. A painful lesson.

BUYS

Docusign I’ve owned them in the past but thanks to the detailed analysis and confidence from the board, I’m back in. I’ve used my Pinterest proceeds to open up a decent sized position. Their last earnings showed all metrics ticking upwards and importantly that they still have significant runway in their core e-signature market. I have big respect for Dan Springer and I believe that share price has some serious uplift left before the growth starts to tail off.

I topped up Upstart as well.

My companies

Upstart Another solid month of news, they keep expanding their bank partnerships which bodes well. Sources that I use to track traffic and downloads look positive for the past few months so I am expecting another significant earnings beat and raise of guidance next week.

Roku - Happy and holding despite a little blow off from the all time high. I think the market has been a little spooked by the pinterest user data so there is some danger that a surprise fall in the growth of accounts could cause some havoc. On the other hand, the advertising business is flying and the Roku Channel looks set to release some tasty viewing numbers.

Crowdstrike - Steady as she goes. Cybersecurity keeps being mentioned as a top priority spend for CTO and CIO’s which can only be a good thing. Earnings in early September so not expecting much action until then.

Datadog An excellent month of news including enhanced partnerships with Google Cloud, AWS and ServiceNow. I’m very excited to see their earnings on Thursday!

Fiverr No significant news to share. They report on Thursday.

Docusign Discussed above

Sea Sea got whacked in July because of a bit of collateral damage from China. They get lumped in the China sentiment stream despite operating hundreds of miles away in Singapre, SE Asia and now South America! SE Asia is seriously struggling from Covid (I know quite well as I was due to move to Bali in September) so I’m interested to see how this is addressed in their next earnings.

FuboTV Nothing to report from Fubo. I’m still confident their next earnings will show strong growth across the board, the share price is lagging so will be totally driven by next week’s news.

Stem A quiet month of news for Stem. I’d like to see an improvement and a plan to increase gross margins. That is one major area of concern for me.

Watch List

Asana I’ve analysed them a lot, I really like the workflow/tracking space, I think this is under appreciated and in its early days of adoption from organisations across the world. The founders are visionaries and their customer growth is impressive. I’m not hot on their current price hike so I will be watching closely for an opportunity.

DigitalOcean Coming on the scene to disrupt the cloud titans, targeting SMB’s and start ups. Lots of impressive things going for this company, they just need to get their revenue firing higher, currently in the 30% range.

Voyager Digital Taking off the watch list because for some reason I can’t buy this stock using a UK brokerage…

I am looking into dLocal, a payments company from South America. I continue to track Bitcoin, Ethereum and Chainlink.

Previous updates

Thanks for reading from my summer home, Mystic, Connecticut.

Andrew