I agree with most everything that’s been said here, so I won’t re-iterate with any of these, except briefly for ZM. Though it’s more “holistic” than analytical, but I feel like Zoom is breaking out of its shell to become much more than just a video conferencing company. We’ve heard this sort of thing before: “Amazon is more than just a bookstore (or later, more than just an online store)”, that “Apple is more than just a computer company”, or “Netflix is more than just a video store”, and “Roku is more than a hardware company”. I don’t know what the future holds, but I plan to increase my small position in ZM throughout 2020.
But that’s not the point of this post. I want to propose a few others stocks that haven’t been mentioned in this thread, or in similar threads these last few weeks, unless I missed something (very possible).
TDOC (Teledoc)
This stock has been discussed on here from time to time. They do tele-medicine. It’s obvious to see the potential here with COVID-19, and how this is a new macro-trend. Indeed, their share price is up 64% over the last 3 months. Here are two relevant threads on this board from last year that got a healthy discussion, with pros and cons:
Austin’s “why I own TDOC”, 1/24/19: https://discussion.fool.com/why-i-own-tdoc-34117521.aspx
rockleppard’s TDOC writeup, 10/4/19: https://discussion.fool.com/teledoc-tdoc-34310116.aspx
SeekingAlpha article from last week: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4331730-teladoc-huge-upside…
I also can’t help but wonder whether this is in a mini “COVID-19 bubble”. I believe in the long-term story of this stock, but at $125 and P/S of 16.6, it looks a bit frothy right now. Of course, I said the same thing a 3 months ago when it was at $80. I sold out of it last July at $68 for what I thought was a nice profit then. I’ve been waiting for a better re-entry point since COVID-19.
MA & V (Mastercard & Visa)
These aren’t ultra-high growth “Saul stocks”, but MA has a 33% CAGR since their 2006 IPO, and V has a 22% CAGR since their 2008 IPO. I know some people here are confident that they can beat that going forward, but if you could guarantee me a 22% rate for the next dozen years, I’d be all in. Unfortunately, with so many businesses shutting down during the COVID-19 outbreak, people are going to have to be racking up credit card debt at historic rates, just to pay their bills. Credit card companies are going to reap the benefits. I’d buy these over SQ – a company regularly discussed on here, in a heartbeat. Before COVID-19, I’m not sure I would have said that.
Also, I’ve traveled a lot, and it’s surprising how much of the world is still largely a cash society. This includes much of Asia, and even European countries such as Germany. This is of course going to change in the long term, but I suspect that COVID-19 will be a catalyst. Not only is cash a potential vector of diseases, but a number of people who prefer cash and are out of work are going to be forced to take on credit card debt for the first time. Both MA and V are down, but not as much as the market as a whole.
Even though my current holding are nearly 100% high-growth – companies that are no strangers to this board, I will likely be buying some MA and V in 2020 because I expect them to do very well over the next few years.
Questions I’d like to pose:
FSLY (Fastly): This has been discussed on this board since their IPO last year. I still don’t really understand this company, other than that they improve internet performance and make things faster. Given how many people are now going to be working from home on Zoom, or just watching more Netflix during quarantine, it seems like that a company like FSLY could be well-positioned to benefit. At $14, they’re well below their 52-week high of $35, and -36% over the last month alone. Some of this was in response to their CEO stepping down. Does anybody who understands FSLY better have any insight on their resilience and/or opportunities through the COVID-19 crisis and beyond?
Finally an OT question, so feel free to (only!) respond by email. I’m 3 decades from retirement, and I put away money every month. I’m torn on whether to buy more of my favorite stocks that are down (e.g., AYX, DDOG, OTKA), or more ZM, which is up 67% over the last 3 months, but I really feel like is the beginning of something big. No doubt that some of the potential growth due to COVID-19 is already baked into the share price of ZM and TDOC…but how much? Is ZM at $110 really better than AYX at $95? I’m sure others are wondering the same thing. No board replies to this thread on this particular question, please! But if you’d like to chat, email me.