I have made some reallocations during the first 11 days of November, including a couple new positions, so here’s a quick update if it’s of interest to anyone
As of this moment, middle of the trading day Nov 11th, my portfolio is up from +50.1% YTD at October 31st, to +57.2% today. It’s up primarily due to the gains on TTD after they announced earnings last week, partially offset by declines in AYX and DDOG whose earnings were not perceived as well by the market.
10/31/2020 11/11/2020 November activity:
TTD 16.9% 18.4% Stock up on earnings, net of sales&buys
NTNX 15.2% 16.7% Stock up a little, new purchases
MDB 13.3% 13.5%
AYX 13.9% 10.8% Stock down on earnings, and some sales&buys
DDOG 15.0% 8.7% Stock down on earnings, and some sales
GH 6.7% 6.2% Small sales
MGNI - 6.1% NEW HOLDING
DOCU 5.5% 5.9% Small buys
CRWD 3.9% 4.1%
SMAR - 3.6% NEW HOLDING
AMZN 3.6% 3.5%
ESTC 1.7% 1.7%
TDOC 3.8% 0.5% Sale of most shares
KMI 0.4% 0.4%
Last week TTD went way up on earnings, while AYX was down the same day. I had some TTD Jan’21 calls in a tax free IRA that were worth several times what I originally paid for them, and they were worth about 7% of my whole portfolio on Friday. Because I wasn’t anticipating any new news that would drive the price up further before expiration, and there were no tax consequences, I sold those on Friday, by luck, not too far from TTD’s peak. I was comfortable with my Trade Desk position getting larger, so I was planning to just redeploy those funds back into regular TTD shares but guessed that it might pull back a little the following week, so I held most of it in cash over the weekend.
I also sold a small amount of my AYX on Friday, and a few GH Jan’21 calls after GH’s price stayed about flat after earnings last week (same reasoning as TTD, no additional earnings or other news likely before expiration).
After researching Magnite (MGNI) over the weekend (I posted a summary on this board on Monday), I decided to instead put about 2% of the cash into a new MGNI position.
I also have been keeping my eye on Smartsheets (SMAR) since selling out of it at the beginning of 2020, and decided I like the valuation and their recent revenue trends, and I believe they’re undervalued based on what I think will be pretty conservative forecast expectations for them, so I reopened a small SMAR position on Monday too.
After continuing to think about MGNI some more, and seeing it’s price drop yesterday, as well as getting some additional thoughts from others on the board, I decided to buy some more Magnite yesterday.
While I like TDOC and think an investment in them will do quite well from here, I concluded that I have more conviction in other companies and decided to all of my Teladoc shares, keeping only a few LEAP calls that I had.
While I initially thought DDOG’s report yesterday wasn’t too bad, after listening to the conference call, and as I looked over my three year expectations for them last night, I decided my own projections for Datadog are too aggressive compared to how things are likely trending, and I sold off about 35% of my shares this morning. I think the valuation today is about right for them, compared to how I think they will do, not a bad stock to own, but no longer one that I think should be one of my biggest positions, given the valuation and my future revenue expectations.
This morning, I redeployed most all of the cash that was raised from the TTD, TDOC, and DDOG (and just a little from AYX and GH) sales over the past few days. I bought a little more MGNI and a little more SMAR. I also bought back some of the AYX shares I had sold friday (I’m more optimistic on Alteryx after digesting their report for a few days) and added some more TTD. I bought some more NTNX (gasp!). And I added a little more DOCU.
So now I’m up from 12, to 14, different companies (although AMZN doesn’t really count since I’m just just going to wait until the new year to sell, for tax reasons) and TDOC and KMI are pretty insignificant, so it’s really more like 9 actual holdings. If DDOG rebounds a bit, I may be tempted to sell off a little more (tho if it drops significantly, I also wouldn’t rule out buying some DDOG back).
In addition to the Tom G post on the premium TTD board (post 1895) that I recommended in my Magnite writeup thread, Tom G also has a great post of his summary of Magnite earnings on the premium MGNI board (post 76) that I highly suggest as required reading, both to anyone interested in MGNI or TTD. Incredibly, the post on the MGNI board only has 14 rec’s 36 hours later, which reinforces to me that this company is being underfollowed and likely depressing the valuation and stock price (for now).
If you don’t have a paid TMF subscription, get one if you are able, because posts like these alone are worth every penny!
That’s it for now. Thanks, especially to everyone that posted or emailed me about Magnite this week, the groupthink of this board is really amazing!
-mekong