Just for “fun”, let’s ignore the EU, UK and US from the standpoint of being combatants and let’s look at the objectives and pressures on the two fighting parties.
Jeff,
Why? The fact is that Ukraine would be gone if NATO/the West had not stepped in.
As to Russia’s not using “all-out war” tactics on Ukraine…they didn’t because they underestimated NATO’s response and over-estimated their own military capabilities. So, the “bully” threatens to go the nuclear…tactically and strategically.
It is time that the Western leaders channel their inner JFK regarding Putin’s nuclear and other threats. If the West backs down and let’s Putin dictate war terms because of his nuclear threats…even tactical ones… that makes a nuclear threat for other countries/NATO, USA, etc. MORE possible in the future. If our nuclear deterrent is no longer seen by the dictators of the world as a counter-balance to theirs because they think we lack willpower to use them, then our choices will eventually boil down to two:
1.Gradually surrender territory and concessions to those who make nuclear threats.
2.Convince them that the use of ANY nuke an act of war against NATO and the west (back channels only approach; not media, etc.)
The world has avoided nuclear annulation via “MAD” (mutually assured destruction)-sad, but that is where we were/are. The VERY worst thing the West can do is allow nuclear threats to produce gains for those threatening their use.
Assuming the Western leaders can convince Russia that MAD is still in effect, and we all avoid the use of nukes, then our choices appear to be these:
1.Find a “soft landing” for Putin that allows him to save face WITHOUT giving up anything of principle or real importance to the West. (He is allowed to keep Crimea or part of it, but he MUST lose something/give back other parts of Ukraine for keeping Crimea?) This is a tough one to structure and get done due to Putin’s nature and the hole he is still digging for himself. Putin is losing this war, and should not have a net gain from it.
2.Continue as is, with increasing pressure, until Russia decides to rid itself of Putin, or Putin declares “victory” and leaves Ukraine.
I personally favor combining both #2’s.
Murph