LVGO my new top holding

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As of today, for the first time, LVGO is now my top holding, this fact amazes me.

I have only owned LVGO since Jan of this year, but in the last four months it has taken over older, more established holdings, AYX and MDB (who are no slouches!), along with more recent top holdings like CRWD, DDOG and ZM.

How does this happen?

1-week return ~45%
1-month return ~80%
3-month return ~225%

I have not gotten on the FSLY train or it may have given LVGO a run for it’s money, but like is said around these parts, you don’t need to own all the great companies.

Looking forward to many more years of incredible LVGO returns with such great performance, optionality, and immense TAM!

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Wow. Unreal. Thanks for sharing that advice (…you don’t need to own all the great companies!)

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Looking forward to many more years of incredible LVGO returns

Well, cmon now. No need to cheerlead any company and talk about “many more years”. These stocks are going up because they’re in the parabolic rise stage 2 phase. As soon as they’re not, as soon as they start to slow growth even a little, show some competition, you - and everyone else - will dump them. It’s not “many more years” away.

Love the company, not the stock - and when the wave breaks, pull the board back and look for the next wave.

FC

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FC,

‘It’s not “many more years” away.’

Please let us know when the phase ends so we can get out since you seem to have ability to see when it will happen.

Bnh

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FlyingCircus,

Do you always make assumptions about people? You know how it makes you look, right?

Well, cmon now. No need to cheerlead any company and talk about “many more years”. These stocks are going up because they’re in the parabolic rise stage 2 phase. As soon as they’re not, as soon as they start to slow growth even a little, show some competition, you - and everyone else - will dump them. It’s not “many more years” away.

Really? Well, lets see, currently in my portfolio, I have…

MDB - held 2 years, from the $50’s to now, my #4 holding.
AYX - held 2.5 years, from the $30’s to now, my #2 holding.
EXAS - held 3 years, from the $30’s to now, my smallest holding, probably exiting soon.
SHOP - held for 4 years, from $30 to $850, was my #1 holding for awhile, until I started trimming it in the last year, and finally sold the last of my shares within the last month.
NFLX - held for 10 years, from $11 to now, was my #1 holding for awhile, still #6, but yeah, a relic from my previous investing style, but still holding it, it’s Neflix’s streaming world, we all just live in it, and watch it!
The other 8 or so holdings in my portfolio have been held for less than 2 years, most because they haven’t even been public for that long (BYND, CRWD, DDOG, ESTC, LVGO, ZM), but I can see holding all of them for multiple years, too.

So what was that you were snidely commenting about nobody here holds for years? I think I’ve earned the right to say I’m looking forward to years of holding LVGO, and the outsized returns that I think will come with that.

Love the company, not the stock…

Sounds like you’re not a LVGO owner, too bad, I think you’re missing out.

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Can a LVGO fan on this thread please help me understand this company. All I see are negatives. How are they scaling so fast? There lots of competitors in this space with similar solutions? There is Omada Health, Virta Health, and many more.

And as far as the service goes:

  1. LVGO doesn’t have anything proprietary
  2. The costs saving claims that they make are dubious and hard to prove
  3. They can’t force anyone to use the tech
  4. It would take years to determine if the cost savings were actually achieved
  5. Why are customers signing up in a down market

What am I missing here? Thanks.

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Can a LVGO fan on this thread please help me understand this company. All I see are negatives. How are they scaling so fast? There lots of competitors in this space with similar solutions? There is Omada Health, Virta Health, and many more.

And as far as the service goes:
1. LVGO doesn’t have anything proprietary
2. The costs saving claims that they make are dubious and hard to prove
3. They can’t force anyone to use the tech
4. It would take years to determine if the cost savings were actually achieved
5. Why are customers signing up in a down market

What am I missing here? Thanks.

LVGO is the top dog in this rapidly growing niche with growth accelerated by the pandemic - accelerating telemonitoring and greater appreciation for health issues LVGO focuses on. There are health benefits and this supercedes the cost issue. I do think there will be cost savings but as you say, this will take years to fully evaluate.

The growth numbers speak for themselves. The stock may have gotten ahead of itself with the recent jump. But it was starting at a low P/S multiple with spectacular growth before the pandemic.

Yes, there is competition but its a race and LVGO has a large lead.

Dave

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Golfcaddy,

Some of my thoughts below:

Can a LVGO fan on this thread please help me understand this company. All I see are negatives. How are they scaling so fast? There lots of competitors in this space with similar solutions? There is Omada Health, Virta Health, and many more.

And as far as the service goes:
1. LVGO doesn’t have anything proprietary

I think it is important to make sure we are differentiating typical SaaS products to AI/ML products. Sure, anyone can likely build out some predictive algorithm to help with diabetes care, however building something that is consumer friendly takes a lot of time to be able to acquire, clean, store, and then analyze all of that data (healthcare data is notoriously difficult to work with) to make sure you’re helping solve the right problems. The leg up here, would be that the larger of a head start Livongo (or any AI/ML product) has on competition, means the more data they can collect on patients which in turn should mean a better working product.

2. The costs saving claims that they make are dubious and hard to prove
4. It would take years to determine if the cost savings were actually achieved

I’m still trying to find how they have shared their results, but here is some anecdotal experience after working in this environment:

Short term - it is possible to see both improvemnents from both a financial and clinical lens. In a previous life supporting this type of work, just getting individuals in to see someone to help educate patients on diet and diabetes itself (usually an RN or dietician), we were able to see improvements clinically (reduced weight, and reduced A1c levels) both of which end up reducing short-term cost of care to a patient. For example, if you weigh less, you likely need less insulin, and thus your drug costs should be lower. This can be especially helpful when insulin costs are rising exponentially.

Long term is where cost things will get interesting. I think everyone has seen the results of fad diets which work short term, but end up not changing behavior in the long run. Sustained clinical improvements will be important to be able to measure otherwise this is just another expensive Weight Watchers/Atkins/Paleo/Keto diet.

What concerns me even more though is who will be the ultimate recipient of that cost savings? For example, if I am a 30-40 year old who is overweight and has uncontrolled diabetes, there is a likelihood I will end up needing significant care down the line (e.g. amputation). Meaning, that the insurance company today may not be the insurance company I have years from now, so does it make sense for my current insurer to pay additional money for my Livongo membership when some insurer down the line will reap the cost savings benefits (not have to amputate my foot)?

Normally I’m skeptical of most healthcare technology products as many do not produce the value that they were designed for, but I do like Livongo’s opportunity to capitalize on remote monitoring and support outside of the four walls of a healthcare facility where lifestyle is incredibly important.

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Good tech solves a problem. One that often was not clearly seen.
Patient compliance is a huge problem with diabetics ,the obese and to a lesser extent with hypertension. Doctors can not solve this problem, they have limited time and often talk a different language than patients. The old way just does not work for many patients. Giving them medicines and testing equipment is not enough Self discipline is hard, as any of us who have tried to lose weight know. It sometimes seems like a hopeless task. To make it worse the bad payoff for slack control is often far off in the future.

There are not enough qualified humans to nudge people, and anyhow repeated advice when given directly face to face or on the phone quickly turns into nagging. A text is less annoying. Think of LVGO as a sort of a benign Nanny.

Customers are signing up because any increase in compliance leads to fewer ER visits and hospitalization. These are very expensive.

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