Market Downturns lead to Phoenix Portfolio

Investment Analysis Clubs Saul’s Investing Discussions
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For me anyhow.

Last March, almost exactly a year ago, I used the downturn to consolidate from lower conviction stocks into higher conviction stocks, all the while, reconcentrating my portfolio for focus.

Well, this past week I’ve done the same.

I don’t know how to time to top and take “money off the table” or the bottom and buy at the “perfect moment”

But…I do recognize when I start fishing for new stocks because my portfolio feels “too hot”…and when I see 30%+ cuts in businesses executing as well today as they did last week with NO CHANGE in their business landscape.

So, a week ago I was a portfolio that looked something like

23% CRWD
12% TTD
6% NET
6% AXON
6% OKTA
6% DDOG
6% ESTC
5% ASAN
4% ZS
4% ROKU
4% TWLO
3% MGNI
3% SKLZ
2% SNOW
2% GAN
2% FUBO
1% CURI

7% Cash from AYX & FSLY sell

As you can see…shotgun approach…long tails…I justified it as “buckets” for CTV and “buckets” for sports betting

So as things started dropping I took the time to write out what my ideal portfolio would look like. Where do I have conviction backed up by numbershere’s what I came up with

CRWD - 20%
TTD - 10%
ROKU - 10%
DDOG - 10%
TWLO - 7.5%
NET - 7.5%
ZS - 7.5%
OKTA - 7.5%
ASAN - 5%
SNOW - 5%
SKLZ - 5%
ZM - 5%

So today, I’m close to that. I have a few %’s of CURI in my kids Coverdell given its tie to them and their interests.

I feel…at ease.

But, please consider, I have savings in the event I lost my job. I’m not near touching this portfolio for retirement needs. I am in a different situation than others because it is my situation

Your portfolio should reflect you.

I look at what has staying power.

Watchlist companies for me remain.

eCommerce (which I admittedly don’t feel comfortable in since I sold a 10% allocation fo SHOP at $120 average…oops)

  • ETSY
  • SE

bioTech (NKTR…shivers…but I got it right on INSP)

  • DMTK
  • INSP

Sports Betting

  • FUBO
  • DKNG
  • GAN

ConnectedTV

  • MGNI

Data Analytics

  • PLTR
  • AI
  • AYX

Others

  • PTON
  • AXON
  • ESTC

So that’s my entire mind dumped out. When I see market downturns I retreat to positions that are winners and leaders in their categories.

If I did anything else to my portfolio I’d be tempted to trim OKTA to 5% and add SNOW to 7.5%

Just where my mind is. I’ve been working on a breakdown of their ER, which was fantastic.

Just a Fool

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< SIGH > How do I know we are closer to a bottom than a top? When zerohedge12 shows up with yet another periodic rant about high valuations. So, I’m glad to see there might finally be light at the end of this tunnel.

I see 20-30% further downward potential.

Of course you do. Flipping through your history here, that’s pretty much all you ever see. A 20-30% drop is always possible, and we readily concede that point every single time you make it. On the other hand, 20-30% gains are also a possibility. In fact, we’ve seen more than a few of those instances as well. The only thing any of us can do going forward is place our bets accordingly and stick to our plan.

Market pessimism always sounds smart in the moment. Lucky for us, market optimism’s track record is literally undefeated. Any new readers should probably read that bolded portion again.

So, thanks again to zerohedge12 for the inarguable and inactionable warning that things might indeed get worse. All perspectives do matter, after all. I’ll just remind everyone the perspective here should be whether the thesis has changed for any of these companies and not what the stock price has done a mere 3 weeks after many challenged all-time highs.

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Hi JAFbrblev, while nice to hear about some action people are taking, this would contribute considerably more to the board if you shared the WHY behind the what. Why did you choose to consolidate in to those companies. Can you list each company you added more to and give a sentence or two on what led you to roll your investing dollars over to them? Can you share why you didn’t like others (or perhaps they were just not AS good, but still good, which is totally valid).

(Not a moderator here, just curious.)

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