MDB Quick and Dirty...

🆁🅶🅱
wordlessly watching, he waits by the window and wonders…

Oops…

Revenue up by 78%
Adjusted Gross Profit up by 70%
Adjusted Gross Margin 70% (down from 73% a year ago)
Customers (>100k) up by 52%
Total Customers up by 115%


	Revenue, ASC 606 (millions USD)						
		Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Year	YOY
	2018				50,051	166,028	
	2019	50,139	59,611	71,782	85,484	267,016	60.83%
	2020	89,388				89,388	-66.52%
	YOY	78.28%					
							
	Adj Gross Profit. non-GAAP.ASC 606 (millions USD)						
		Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Year	YOY
	2018				38,047	124,361	
	2019	36,933			61,000	196,734	58.20%
	2020	62,797				62,797	-68.08%
	YOY	70.03%					
							
							
	Gross margin percent, ASC 606 (Non-GAAP)						
		Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Year	
	2018				76.02%	74.90%	
	2019	73.66%			71.36%	73.68%	
	2020	70.25%					
							
							
							
	Adj Operating Profit, ASC 606 (millions USD)						
		Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Year	YOY
	2018				-14,524	-62,762	
	2019	-18,881			-9,691	-54,922	-12.49%
	2020	-12,642				-12,642	-76.98%
							
							
	Operating Profit % of Revenue (Non-GAAP)						
		Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Year	
	2018				-29.02%	-37.80%	
	2019	-37.66%	0.00%	0.00%	-11.34%	-20.57%	
	2020	-14.14%					
							
							
							
	Adj Net Profit, ASC 606 (millions USD)						
		Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Year	YOY
	2018				-13,645	-61,955	
	2019	-18,757			-9,070	-52,188	-15.76%
	2020	-12,084				-12,084	-76.85%
							
							
	Net Profit % of Revenue (Non-GAAP)						
		Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Year	
	2018				-27.26%	-37.32%	
	2019	-37.41%	0.00%	0.00%	-10.61%	-19.54%	
	2020	-13.52%		
							
							
	Adj EPS. ASC 606 (USD)						
		Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	
	2018				-0.27		
	2019	-0.37			-0.17	
	2020	-0.22				
							
							
	Opr Cash Flow (millions USD)						
		Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	
	2019	-8,049				
	2020	3,214				
							
							
	Free Cash Flow (millions USD)						
		Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Year	YOY
	2017				-10,347	-39,761	
	2018				-8,133	-47,016	18.25%
	2019	-8,416			-12,630	-48,837	3.87%
	2020	2,825				
							
							
	Total customers						
		Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	YOY	
	2018	3,700	4,300	4,900	5,700		
	2019	6,600	7,400	8,300	13,400	135.09%	
	2020	14,200					
	YOY	115.15%					
							
	Customers (ACV > $100k)						
		Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	YOY	
	2018	268	296	320	354		
	2019	394	438	490	557	57.34%	
	2020	598				
	YOY	51.78%					
							

🆁🅶🅱
wordlessly watching, he waits by the window and wonders…

45 Likes

so far a well executed conference call. MDB selling off after hours probably traders taking quick profits from the past 2 days run up. Growth remains very strong.

3 Likes

Could also be the usual worries about guidance, etc.

Definitely looks very strong - Atlas 340% growth, crazy, from ~10% to 35%

2 Likes

Outsiders question, how much of - Atlas 340% growth, crazy, from ~10% to 35% is revenue addition and how much is revenue shifting?

1 Like

Given that overall growth is 70% plus, one would have to say that Atlas is not cannibalizing revenue, and if it is more power to Atlas.

Tinker

11 Likes

Guidance for 2nd half of FY 2020 seems weak.
Assume
Q2 - they hit $97M (a beat of $6M at the mid point)
FY 2020 - $400M (current guidance is $378M at the mid point)

FY 2020 rev growth rates comes down to:

Q1 - 78%
Q2 - 63%
Q3+Q4 - 36%

Note the sharp slow down in the 2nd half…

7 Likes

Guidance for 2nd half of FY 2020 seems weak.

they did specify on the conference call that comps in the second half of the year would get much tougher. I didn’t listen to the entire call but that was one of the lines that jumped out at me

-mekong

2 Likes

From CC:
"As a reminder, year-over-year growth comparisons and quarter-to-quarter results will likely be more variable under 606 due in part – due to the timing of multi-year contract signings.

As an example, and as we have described before, we are facing noticeably larger comparison in the second half of fiscal 2020, particularly in the third quarter.

In addition, the fourth quarter will be the first quarter where we will have mLab in the base period. And as we have described before, we have expected some deterioration in the revenue from former mLab customers."

6 Likes

Guidance for 2nd half of FY 2020 seems weak.

Am I a victim of selective memory, or is this a trend we’re seeing of lowered guidance across the board?

Am I a victim of selective memory, or is this a trend we’re seeing of lowered guidance across the board?


Both Elastic and SMAR had some of the higher forecast growth %'s I have seen…so I think it depends on each company. AYX had pretty good guidance too, I believe. And some sandbag a lot harder than others, and I believe MDB (and ZS comes to mind) are both pretty big sandbaggers.

The other thought is that as these companies get larger, there will likely be a natural decrease in % growth.

Dreamer

11 Likes

From CC:
"As a reminder, year-over-year growth comparisons and quarter-to-quarter results will likely be more variable under 606 due in part – due to the timing of multi-year contract signings.

Can someone explain what this really means?

Thank you

Guidance for 2nd half of FY 2020 seems weak.
Assume in Q2 they hit $97M (a beat of $6M at the mid point)
FY 2020 - $400M (current guidance is $378M at the mid point)

FY 2020 rev growth rates comes down to:

Q1 - 78%
Q2 - 63%
Q3+Q4 - 36%

Note the sharp slow down in the 2nd half…

It is beyond me that anyone still pays attention to these ridiculous guidances. Time-after-time they prove totally meaningless, yet people continue to choose to worry about them.

I mean listen to this: Note the sharp slow down in the 2nd half… Does he really think Mongo’s revenue growth will slow from 78% in the first quarter to 36% in the third and fourth quarter??? If not, why waste our time with it.

Best,

Saul

15 Likes