Twilio had 204.3m in Q4 revenue. Most of this is recurring, so if they grow even 5% in Q1, we would expect at least 215m in Q1. But then we can add another ~30m for SendGrid (very rough estimate…they did 41m in Q4…TWLO is only getting 2 months of Sendgrid in Q1). So that adds up to 245m, even though they only guided for 225m at the high end. Let’s have a little Friday fun and try to predict what they will acheive! I’ll go even a little higher than 245 and put the over / under at 248.
- Twilio will have 248m or more in Q1 2019 revenue
- Twilio will have less than 248m in Q1 2019 revenue
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TWLO 2018 Q1 revenue: 129M
Assume growth rate the same minus the big one time spend (77% - 10%)=67%
TWLO 2019 Q1: 215.4M
SendGrid 2018 Q1 revenue: 32.6M
Growth rate 25% as mentioned in CC
SendGrid 2019 Q1: 40.75M x 2/3 (two month)=27.16M
So total Q1 revenue: 242.56M
Still beat guidance of 220 - 225 M
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TWLO has been growing revenue 15% CAGR per quarter for 5 quarters.
So I think your 5% is low. I think your $30MM for SEND is high.
From the call (CFO Shipchandler) So if you normalize for the full 12 months of 2019 in rough numbers, this guidance equates to about 45% organic year-over-year growth for Twilio-only base revenue and about 25% organic year-over-year growth for SendGrid or over 40% organic year-over-year growth for what will be the combined base revenue category going forward.
Noting the 2 one-time events at 10 % of the 77% YoY total revenue we get 67% growth = $192.45MM
192 + 15% per QTR growth = 221. + 27 for Sendgrid = $248MM on the button.
I think the wild card is the $10MM in non-base revenue that seems low-balled.
Also with SendGrid at 25% growth = ~$180MM; but SEND has been growing 30% YoY, and Rev is at times +5% sequentially and at times 10% sequentially. Taking the low number $41MM x 1.05 * 2/3 = 28.7MM.
I think it’s gonna be a barn-burner
Thanks for the fun exercise
Joe
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