So, have we already had our “good returns”, and it’s not worth pursuing any longer this go-around?
Probably still not too bad.
Look on the bright side: you already know the market is bouncing (for now) rather than continuing to plunge, which seemed eminently possible mid day yesterday.
I measure the historical results from my bottom detector signals using the next day’s open of the S&P.
At any bottom, the intraday low point is going to be a lot lower than when you get in.
From the next day’s open, nominal S&P index return:
Average return in the next month is +2.1% (CAGR 28)
Median return in the next month is +2.2% (CAGR 30)
Results are generally good in the 1-4 week “bounce” range.
Only very faintly above average at the 3-6 month mark.
For a lasting signal I need to get a peep out of the “major bottom detector”.
It has been silent since the stretch ending 2020-03-23 when it triggered four days out of five.
Prior signal was the four trading days in a row ending 2018-12-26
Jim