UPST is now ~$38. DCA is effective. If you combine that with buying leaps (calls), it becomes even more powerful and can turbo charge your returns.
e.g. When the stock was trading ~$12, I could have bought the shares or long calls. I bought $2.5 leap calls for Jan 2025. It was a fairly easy decision.
What happened to “Get rich slowly, sleep well, enjoy life” with the S&P 500? Seems like a bundle of contradictions.
UPST Price now $46, 3x my DCA price. Sign of market exuberance ?
Today’s UPST price ~$60
After the UPST price spike today to $72, Sold some of my 2025 leaps for a hefty 1400% profit. Still own quite a bit of UPST.
Now APPS to step up on Aug 8th.
UPST went down to $25. It is now back to over $40 after dovish fed comments. UPST $2.5 leaps are massively profitable.
UPST demonstrating Dollar Cost Averaging strategy is effective.
Stock is up 17% today to $55.
Buy low sell high sounds simple but is very hard to do when the stock is down.
DCF magic works. 4x in 2 years so far and still going.
This doesn’t really validate dollar cost averaging. Looks to me without data, that you have bought more shares, may be for the same $$, at lower share price and share price recovery helped.
Dollar cost averaging the index is very different from dollar cost averaging of individual stocks. The invidual companies may not necessarily recover or double or triple from the bottom.
This is a very poor example.
Right. You have to know about the company and stock you are buying.
The idea of dollar cost averaging is blindly keep buying every month… I am glad it worked for you here. But what if it is $QS, another name you were very bullish?
You have to know about the company you are investing in.
This is obvious when you are buying a specific stock instead of an index.
Another name I have been buying (falling knife) is APPS.
I started at $21 and continued to buy on the way down till $1. We will see how this story turns out to be in a few years.
Falling revenue for multiple quarters, debt more than market cap, no pathway to profitability or growth.
What is the thesis here?
Management made bad acquisitions and high valuations.
High debt load in a high interest rate environment took it near bankruptcy and stock went from $100 → $1.
Few turn around points and macro tailwinds
IF they survive and show a modest growth this will quickly go to $20+.
This did not go as per plan. Stock down 45% today. Risk of bankruptcy has risen. Let’s see how 2025 goes.
Let’s say you were unlucky and you started DCF UPST at the top ($390).
If you kept buying UPST every month on 15th, your CAGR today would be 27%.
Who buys a single stock once a month, every month??? Most people only do that with index funds or other funds that are often found in a 401k or other retirement contribution plan (where monthly amounts arrive regularly). That isn’t to say that I always buy stocks in one shot. I don’t! Instead I leg into them, sometimes 1/5 of a position, sometimes even 1/10 of a position, and then add over time depending how the price varies. For example, I’ve been slowly accumulating copper mining ETFs over the last 2 years, and I still opportunistically buy when the prices drop. But I don’t buy regularly every month.
What is the rationale for Copper ? I am accumulating US Steel calls.
Electrification is happening and will likely speed up over the next decade or two. And electrification requires lots of copper. It’s almost inevitable because it makes things substantially more efficient (i.e. less $$$ spent over time), things like EVs, like heat pump hot water heaters, etc. They all use copper.
It would be good for you to read the copper counterpoint in the first section of this quarterly investor letter.
It’s somewhat interesting, but uranium is usually used for generating electricity, and the reason we will need more electricity is because of continued electrification. And continued electrification will use more copper. So uranium and copper may both rise slowly over the coming decades, and thus it isn’t really a counterpoint. My copper play isn’t for a year or two or five, it’s for 10, 20, or 30 years.
