As of today, it has been 176 days or just about 6 months since the portfolio’s peak on July 26, 2019 (up 100.0% YTD). The portfolio hit a peak on September 4, 2018 (up 111.9% YTD) and it took exactly 176 days for that portfolio peak to be surpassed (on February 27, 2019). Both YTD run ups ended in a similar month (about 7 months or 8 months into the year), and both run ups had huge moves in the final month of the increase.
The bottom after the 2018 peak was December 24, 2018 (a fall of 37.4%). Thus, it took 65 days from the bottom to regain the prior peak. The most recent bottom after the July 26, 2019 peak was October 22, 2019 (it was a fall of 37.6% from the peak). The magnitude of the 2 drops was almost identical (37.4% compared to 37.6%). It has already been 88 days since the October 22, 2019 bottom.
It is now clear that the recovery to the most recent peak will take longer than the previous major selloff. In fact, the portfolio needs another 17.8% to reattain the last peak.
I don’t think there’s much significance here but perhaps it adds a little perspective. I also found some of the comparisons interesting.
Chris