Just wanted to look at a few charts from 1999. Naz went up 100% from Oct 1999 to March 2000. Some of the big gainers I remember are CSCO, QCOM, and JDSU (now called VIAV)
Qualcom went from low $20s to $100 in that time period, almost 5x. Notice the quick double up to $50 in about 5 weeks. Looks like what we are seeing now. And on this snapshot, it looks like it went up too far too fast and is going to crash. But it does not crash, it rests…
And then, doubles again to $100 in a few months. This time, notice how VERY wide those daily swings were at the end.
It went from $60 to $100 in 5 days. ON day 3, had a big downside reversal. Then Day 4, it sat around in the middle range of that ugly da. Day 5, It went from 90 to $100, only 10%, but it gave it all up by the end of the day. It was all over after that. Just patterns to look for. I will try to do JDSU later
Does SNDK today look like QCOM? Is the Run from $284 to $720 in the month of January look like that first run of QCOM from $25 to $50. Does this latest run look like the exhaustion run of QCOM? Or, is this latest run like the first run of QCOM and we have a lot more to come? Note that the forward PE of SNDK is only 10!
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What about the market run-up? It is really steep on the Naz chart below, almost straight up off the bottom. Seems something must happen, but that something does not have to be a big crash. Look at the run up in the bottom left area of the chart. That is the COVID crash and subsequent run up (I think once Vax was announced). It ran way up, all the way until Sept 21.
We also had our “Liberation Day” 20% correction (second green circle) and ran a long way after that. We can keep going. Need stop losses and focused attention, but this could easily be the biggest gains we see in our lifetimes. It could make the late 1990’s internet tsunami look like a small wave.
Also keep in mind, that Webby says the gains from the bottom to breakeven don’t count, just ignore that % increase. Once we break to new highs, that is when you start.
Finally, we are in a strong Power Trend. The 1999 power trend lasted a number of months, with no tests of the 50dma until a 1-day touch and go upside reversal on 1/31/00, and then 3/30/00, when the market finally fell apart.
Naz, early 2000…
