1YPEG Screen Questions

I was recently introduced to the 1YPEG Screen spreadsheet for this board. I’ve perused it a bit, and my main question is, how are earnings calculated? For example, I pulled up the 2015 Q3 report for INVN from their investor relations site, and the numbers I’m seeing (e.g. 6 cents for Q3) don’t match the numbers on your spreadsheet. Can you clarify?

Also, I added HRTG at the bottom myself. Can someone tell me if I’ve done it correctly?

Thanks,
Bear

Hi Bear,

how are earnings calculated?

Folks on this board tend to use Adjusted (non-GAAP) EPS as presented by management, rather than the GAAP EPS you’ll find everywhere else. Saul talks about the reasons for this is in his Knowledgebase.

The easiest place to get Adjusted EPS for most companies is in the earnings press releases.

Neil

Folks on this board tend to use Adjusted (non-GAAP) EPS as presented by management

I should clarify that some financial websites and brokers will present something they call Adjusted EPS, but it’s based on their own calculations and won’t necessarily match what management presents. So it’s really best to get the figures direct from the company’s press releases.

And again, all of this is discussed in Saul’s Knowledgebase. You can find a link to that on the right side of the page.

Neil

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Question, for the 1ypeg.com site, does one need to post in USD or can one post in SEK?

does one need to post in USD or can one post in SEK?

USD, please. Values should be converted prior to entry.

Thanks :slight_smile:
Neil

USD, please. Values should be converted prior to entry.

So what does one do about the fact that the conversion rate at prior times was different than it is now. Doesn’t this tend to imply either looking up historical conversion rates or re-entering all data according to the current rate with every update?

Also, a related question … I am interested in doing some looking at the historical figures (later updated as there are new ones) and one of the things which seems like it could be interesting is the trajectory of 1YPEG – going down/up and what kind of pattern. But, to calculate that it seems that one would have to have historical P/Es. Is there any direct source of that or would one have to look up historical prices and compare to the quarters earnings per share?

Also, at least for the company I am looking at first (Arcam), the EPS figures in the announcements are for the year to date, not for the quarter. Does this mean that one has to have the share counts and do one’s own calculation?

Hi tamhas,

Yes, for Arcam it sounds like you’ll need to do a little prep work for the data: converting currency, figuring out quarterly EPS figures if they don’t report them. Sorry about that. I do have assisted currency conversion on my todo list, but it’s pretty low on that list, and I don’t think I’ll be getting to it in the immediate future. Right now my focus is on building out the next round of valuation tools.

As for historical 1YPEG, it’s not something that has really struck me personally as very useful, but I could add it.

Neil

I’m not sure it is worth the trouble to get the historical stuff, especially for a smallish company where the numbers jump around a lot. I’ll play and think …

Thinking about this, I don’t think currency factors have any effect. I would think you would want to do the earnings growth calculations in the native currency, which would give you a truer picture of its growth without mucking it up with currency-exchange effects.

The Price and Earnings values in the PEG calculation would not require ANY conversion. To show this, lets assume that we did try to convert the local currency into dollars for the PEG. We would do this:

1YPEG = (Price * ConversionFactor) / (TTM Earnings * ConversionFactor) / (TTM Earnings growth rate)

The ConversionFactor cancels out of the PEG calculation. Thus, no need to worry about it at all.

All I would do is when entering the data on the spreadsheet, make sure that you note that the earnings data is NOT in dollars, but in whatever currency it was reported in.

Tiptree, Fool One guide, math guy

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1YPEG = (Price * ConversionFactor) / (TTM Earnings * ConversionFactor) / (TTM Earnings growth rate)

Except that what I hold is AMAVF, which is priced in USD.

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Neil, couldn’t you make the earnings date optional for historical quarters. I have what quarter it is, but no date of announcement.

Neil, couldn’t you make the earnings date optional for historical quarters

No. Some of the data is date-sensitive, and I need the dates to match things up properly. Isn’t there a date on the press release? I typically just cruise through the press releases when I’m entering the data for a company. Arcam aside, which obviously will require some additional work, it generally only takes about 5-7 minutes for most companies, especially as their press releases tend to follow a pattern regarding where they put their revenue and adjusted EPS figures.

And remember, it only needs to be done once, and then the whole community benefits. If you have a lot of companies that need to be entered, email me off boards a list of some and I’ll take on some of the work.

Neil

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No, Arcam has a list of summarized results in one section and press releases in another section, but the press releases are announcements of the call, not the release of results. I suppose, that if I go through the press releases, they will give a date for when the results are announced, but it is a bit tedious.

This is really just an exploration to see if I can see things that would make me time decisions better, so it isn’t necessarily a bulk operation, especially if initial explorations don’t produce anything.

How are stock splits handled with the 1ypeg.com data?

Should earnings be entered as reported in the press release (and adjusted automatically), or adjusted for any splits since that time? What happens if a stock splits after entering data? Do earnings information need to be manually adjusted?

This is a site I bookmarked a long time ago.

The data is Morningstar so uses adjusted EPS, non-GAAP.

But it makes some very nice charts that are quite useful, and could be an adjunct to those generated here, albeit with different data.

http://ogres-crypt.com/php/chart-mscf.php?s=aapl

Just punch in your ticker!

Gator

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Bear,

Check out the EPS entries for ELLI. I started a non-standard thing of adding a note to each item and copying the text from the earnings release. I felt this gave some validation to the source if someone were to go back a look a few months in the future. You can see these are non-GAAP numbers. So if you go to the ELLI site and look at the press releases for the most recent earnings, you should be able to see exactly where I got the numbers from, thus providing a model for yourself. Also, if you are verifying someone else’s numbers, you can go ahead a put a note in where they did not.

I have never been scolded for doing this, so it is ok. Note that Comments and Notes are different things. It seems comments are for raising an issue that someone can “resolve”. Notes are just for “statements”. Comments also show your Google+ identity.

As you will be told, read the knowledge base!!

Welcome aboard.

Did I add HRTG correctly?