This is, what do they call it? A prediction. Predictions are frequently wrong, sometimes incalculably wrong.
A rocket will never be able to leave the Earth’s atmosphere.” — New York Times, 1936
“It’ll be gone by June.” - Variety Magazine on Rock n’ Roll, 1955
"The world potential market for copying machines is 5000 at most.” — IBM, to the eventual founders of Xerox, saying the photocopier had no market large enough to justify production, 1959
“There will never be a bigger plane built.” - - A Boeing engineer, after the first flight of the 247, a twin engine plane that holds ten people
“There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home.” - -Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corporation (DEC), in a talk given to a 1977 World Future Society meeting in Boston
“The horse is here to stay but the automobile is only a novelty—a fad.” - -The president of the Michigan Savings Bank advising Henry Ford’s lawyer not to invest in the Ford Motor Co., 1903
I think there is a world market for maybe five computers." - Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943
This ‘telephone’ has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us." - Western Union internal memo, 1876
Well, these are fun but beside the point. I see nothing to justify the claim that oil will “peak” two years from now. Everybody in the developing world wants what the already developed world has, but they don’t have the infrastructure to support electric vehicles, nor the money. China, as an authoritarian state may get away with it, but anywhere people have choice in a free economy, oil for industry and gas for cars is going to reign for quite some time to come.
As for “predictions”, if there weren’t some that are wrong, there wouldn’t be a stock market, a futures market, or a list of all knowing predictions that were so disastrously wrong. Remember when satellite TV was going to kill cable? When cable was going to kill the networks? When we were going to be vacationing on the moon already? When nuclear power would be too cheap to meter? When credit cards would make cash obsolete?
You have your predictions, and good luck. I’ll still give odds against.
You pick the most ridiculous predictions to try to make your point.
My predictions are based on energy experts who report that oil consumption/demand will peak in 2025.
Your predictions are that oil industry (XOM and Chevron) is going to keep on growing for many years or even decades. But based on what? Your gut feeling or XOM/Chevron experts?
You are mixing up with “Peak Oil” and “Peak Oil Demand/Consumption”!
Those previous “Peak Oil” predictions were based on known oil reserves and before fracking and deep sea drilling technologies were developed. Now experts are talking about “Peak Oil Demand” which is a different subject from “Peak Oil”.
Experts now know that known oil reserves out number all previous estimates and will last into 2100s. However, the world is on a crusade to eliminate oil consumption ASAP in many areas, and this effort will result in “Peak Oil Demand” in 2025.
No I’m not. I’m showing how “oil experts” have been wrong, wrong, and wrong again about their industry across multiple decades.
We don’t have multiple decades of predictions about oil consumption, because there weren’t significant alternatives until just recently. It’s merely that I disagree with your experts that sends you into a tizzy.
I’ll reiterate. Predictions are sometimes wrong. The futures market is populated by experts, who frequently get it wrong. Every company has experts who get things wrong. The government has agencies and buildings with experts who are often wrong.
I think your experts are wrong. And I am betting on it; as are hundreds of thousands of others along with me.
I think your small die-hard oil companies and their investors are wrong. Billions of people in the world want to see an end to oil pollution of the environement and end of burning of oil emissions of CO2. You are outnumbered! The turning point for oil is coming!
Jaagu is talking about alternatives making inroads. The tipping point is in 2025. The way the “experts” in this case know has to do with the trends in costs, efficiencies, infrastructure, production of solar panels and windmills and EV’s and batteries…etc…Jaagu might to some degree be confusing the reduction in fossil fuel usage with a reduction in gasoline usage. I am not sure…but in 2025 fossil fuel usage is supposed to begin to dip and in the coming years drop off at a rate of 4% per year.
That is not a guess at the price. It is not that radical.
One factor that matters to this discussion is the buying of EV. That will only accelerate. Great pun I should say that again, that will only accelerate.
These “measures” are close in as predictions. Meaning 2025 is not out so far that the prediction would be way off course. The earth is moving under your feet as we speak.
“The meagerness of the economic deals signed during Xi Jingping’s visit to Moscow — which glaringly omitted the second gas pipeline from Russia to China — indicates that China is not ready to go all in, at least for now. This portends trouble” for any alliance between the two nations.
Wishful thinking. China needs more energy, lots of it. Russia has lots of it, more than they need.
Practicality will win out over ideology unless both sides are stupid. (Admittedly Russia is stupid, but not so stupid as to not sell a commodity which they have too much of to someone who wants to pay for it.)
Just a week ago you posted a link to a Reuters story:
China set for record crude oil imports in 2023, analysts say
Is there something about “record crude oil imports” you don’t understand? Oil consumption in China was down in 2021 and 2022 thanks to Covid lockdowns. Now it’s not only up over those years, it’s up over every other year ever.
While oil and natural gas are not fungible, for many uses they are substitutable with minor effort. China will get more NG from Russia, and more oil from everywhere. That’s what they’re doing. They’re still growing their economy faster than almost any other large economy in the world. China and India (also not-so-surreptitiously taking Russian NG) together account for about half the growth in world GDP this year.
Goofy, in such articles you are not quoting me or even the opposing point of view in the article.
In the article posted just below this time…because Reuters has a viewing limit…you will see the point of view you are backing is not seeing any recession in the future.
If you want to point out your idea of my mistakes by all means do so. I find it sporting to show you how you do not read or comprehend different points of view nor their context.
You are full of wishful thinking. Where is your source that China needs lots of Russian oil?
I think China has put their efforts into electrification of transportation which makes for less Russian oil. Elon Musk just announced new battery plant in China. More batteries means less oil. China is the world leader in EVs deployed.
I don’t think they need “Russian” oil. I think they need oil. They don’t care where they get it.
Here’s what ChatGPC has to say:
According to data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), China's oil production has been relatively stagnant in recent years, hovering around 4 million barrels per day. Meanwhile, China's oil consumption has continued to increase, reaching 14.5 million barrels per day in 2020, according to the same source.
As a result of this gap between production and consumption, China has become increasingly reliant on oil imports. In fact, China is now the world's largest importer of crude oil, surpassing the United States in 2017.
It is worth noting that China has been investing heavily in renewable energy sources in recent years, and is working to reduce its dependence on fossil fuels, including oil. However, given its current energy needs and infrastructure, China is likely to remain a significant consumer of oil for the foreseeable future.
To be clear, China’s oil consumption continues to rise faster than its domestic oil production . It is already one of the largest oil importing nations on earth, perhaps leading them to undertake the effort to reduce that dependence, having learned the lesson that the US involuntarily learned in the 1970’s.
A different chart will show you that China’s oil consumption was down in 2021 and 2022 thanks to the pandemic, but is sharply on the rise again.
Please read what you write. China is getting it from Russia for around $34 bl because we insist. I think China cares where they get their oil.
Meanwhile that pesky global recession you are not yet factoring in is on our doorstep.
Old news and not the heart of it. This is 2023, just a reminder. What have you done for me lately. China’s oil demand is mostly leveling of from the scat I am reading. That pesky recession. We are discussing future growth in oil demand…our topic…you are following that?
Just an additional point…if China really fully gets into the swing of supplying Russia with arms…we will have to allow Russia to charge China more for oil. Whatever the west states is the price of Russian oil MOSTLY is in fact the price of Russian oil.
They always did say in my econ classes if OPEC had to face a “Western Cartel” the western cartel would be much more powerful.
