4% rule

“with the market uncertainty, inflation out of control, I wouldn’t want to be planning to take 4% out of my portfolio if I were to retire now. I retired 23 years ago…so far so good. …”

In retirement, I would want something with minimum management but I gather that there will be adjustments required on how much one withdraw each year depending on market conditions? I guess one other component of income from the market would be dividends.
Ex social security and some other pension incomes (do most people considering doing the 4% rule have pensions? I would think if one had a benefit-defined pension, s/he would not be having the conversation we are having here?), could relying on investments to generate income/cashflow for retirement be completely passive?
I want to consider that component before adding social security which I assume will not be much when I will be eligible to take it. What is the range of monthly income one could expect from s.s. now? I don’t have a pension to speak of. I ve had 401Ks.

May I ask when you retired, did you target 30 years, or more?

tj

"The 4% study assumes a certain stock/bond allocation, and doesn’t necessarily apply to any asset allocation, or any selection of stocks or stock funds. If you are down essentially 50% when the SP500 is down 24% and the bond market (using the AGG) is down 14%, then your portfolio is not made up of the things that were used in the study. "

so the study had what assumption on the allocation? 60% stock/40% bond? and the stock portion is in something like a S&P500 index or a total stock market index?

tj

so the study had what assumption on the allocation? 60% stock/40% bond? and the stock portion is in something like a S&P500 index or a total stock market index?

You are asking so many questions that I would advise reading the study (and updates) yourself so that you can see the assumptions that were made and devise your own interpretation to apply to your portfolio. Here’s a link to the original article https://www.retailinvestor.org/pdf/Bengen1.pdf

You can find additional references to read in the wikipedia article on the Trinity study https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trinity_study

AJ

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Hi Gene:

yes I like your process. You maintain a 3 year expense cushion. You only draw from your investment portfolio when you anticipate using the money.
I understand if you have larger and irregular expense planned you would strategically withdraw from your portfolio in advance of needing it.
But for your regular expenses (monthly bills and scheduled consumption), wouldn’t you need to pull from your portfolio at the same rate to replenish your cash cushion as you use and deplete it to pay for these regular expenses? I get this is not that rigid and you can do that within a certain time window or you would have to let your cash cushion deplete to less than 3 years of your expenses. If you have to do that due to unfavorable market conditions, do you have other source of income other than stock dividends to support that cushion?

Would you say that the great majority of your financial networth is in your investment portfolio? and you have been relying on that portfolio to fund and maintain your cash cushion?

How did you choose to maintain a 3 year cushion? why not a 5 year cushion? and how do you decide what to sell when you do so?

tj

tj:“In retirement, I would want something with minimum management but I gather that there will be adjustments required on how much one withdraw each year depending on market conditions? I guess one other component of income from the market would be dividends.”

The 4% rule means your total take from your portfolio is 4% - whether you take dividends, REIT income, bond/CD interest, etc.

Of course, if you are in high cost mutual funds - well, if they are taking 0.3% or 0.5% of your assets each year for management, you only get to take 3.7% or 3.5%. They get their share. That is why you want ultra low cost funds like Vanguard SP500, Total stock market, with 0.05% expenses. It’s even worse if you are in a managed fund that takes 1% off the top, plus mutual fund expenses.


tj: " Ex social security and some other pension incomes (do most people considering doing the 4% rule have pensions?"

Probably not. Pensions went the way of the dinosaur for most back in the 1980s when the tax laws made corporations wanting to avoid annual pension top offs required by the government. So they started 401Ks, and many folks who HAD pensions found themselves with ‘pension credits’ in their 401K instead of a pension. Now, only federal and state workers, teachers, and some local government workers still have pensions. Most corporations ended theirs.

In my case, in the 1980s, my company converted nearly all to 401K. If you had enough years of service and age (total like 55) you could stay in the pension plan. When you retired at 65, they would buy you an annuity and wash their hands of any further obligation. I didn’t qualify and probably a good thing as I bailed out of that company at age 52.5.

And yes, of course I had to think about 35 year portfolio since the average person lives into the 80s from age 52.


tj: " I would think if one had a benefit-defined pension, s/he would not be having the conversation we are having here?), could relying on investments to generate income/cashflow for retirement be completely passive?"

Most retired folks don’t want to be ‘speculating’ in the stock market. As you noted you are down 50% this year. the indexes are down 20%. big difference.

Of course, if you have a nice pension, and get SS at age 65, you probably don’t need much income from your portfolio…as of course you would if you had neither. Few have a pension these days. A small percent of population.

As you noted you’re saving 1/3rd of your salary. Obviously for retirement.


TJ:“I want to consider that component before adding social security which I assume will not be much when I will be eligible to take it. What is the range of monthly income one could expect from s.s. now? I don’t have a pension to speak of. I’ve had 401Ks.”

Well, who knows? SS isn’t going away but the benefits might be reduced in 15-30 years. Now, Medicare gobbles up a portion of my SS…they deduct it right out of SS. The more you make (increasing brackets) the more Medicare gobbles up.


tj:“May I ask when you retired, did you target 30 years, or more?”

I retired at 52.5. Planned to hopefully make it to late 80s but SS says the average person doesn’t make late 80s unless female.


When you hit age 72 now…you must start taking RMDs from any IRA/401Ks. That starts at about 3.5% and ratchets up each year. Once you hit 72, you’ll automatically be forced to take near 4% out.

Oh, and the other disadvantages to sector funds and other high flyer mutual funds is that you can whacked with unplanned ‘capital gains’ even though YOU didn’t sell. If the fund has large withdrawals they have to sell - usually stocks held a long time with gains…you get some of the tax bill.

I have some corporate bonds, a slug of REITS in my IRA. So far so good. It’s about 50/50 but overall I’m at about 70/30 now.

Now depending WHEN you bought your stocks…you still might be ‘up’ from when you bought them. If you bought them as they skyrocketed…well…that’s a different story.

Yes, dividends are nice…low tax rate!

t.

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Hi thejusticier,

“You only draw from your investment portfolio when you anticipate using the money.”

No.

We draw all our cash from our cash cushion. I replenish our check book every few weeks, sometimes monthly. It depends on time of year and timing of bills.

“wouldn’t you need to pull from your portfolio at the same rate to replenish your cash cushion as you use and deplete it to pay for these regular expenses?”

NO!

I do not pull money from our portfolio on any regular basis.

Our cash cushion expands and contracts.

Right now, as I pay monthly draws to our builder, our cushion is going down. At the same time, the market is “not optimal” so I am not selling stock. Our monthly living expenses are coming from the cushion, further shrinking the cushion.

I can continue like this for 3 years or longer before I need any cash from our portfolio.

Here is a Cliff’s notes version:

We retired in 2005. I had all the money to build our house, do some additional work around the place and our initial cash cushion. At that point, our cushion had to sustain about 90% of our living expenses so it was sized pretty large.

I replenished our cushion irregularly, from one month to nearly one year, through June 30, 2007. When our portfolio was setting new highs, I sold stock and withdrew cash to top-off our cash cushion. When it pulled back, I left it alone. If our cushion was full or nearly full, I left it alone.

June 30, 2007 was our last portfolio high until June 25, 2010. I pulled some excess cash from our taxable account (dividends) during this period. No stock sales. Our cash cushion got down to a little less than one year remaining when I made our first stock sale in October 2010 to start replenishing our cushion.

Since then, as in the 2005 to 2007 period, I have been able to irregularly replenish our cushion. It might be monthly at times and 9 months at other times.

Currently, our last high was Nov 9, 2021. My last sales were in that time frame. I over-sold and left excess cash in our portfolio because inflation was starting to rear its ugly head. Other than that excess cash, I will not be removing cash from our portfolio. If I don’t need it for our build, it can be reinvested in our Roth IRA’s.

If you continue to take monthly or quarterly distributions from your portfolio during good times and bad times, then a cash cushion is a complete waste of resource.

The entire idea behind the cushion is to draw it down when selling securities is not a good idea and to refill it when selling securities is a good idea.

Does that help you?

Gene
All holdings and some statistics on my Fool profile page
http://my.fool.com/profile/gdett2/info.aspx

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If you continue to take monthly or quarterly distributions from your portfolio during good times and bad times, then a cash cushion is a complete waste of resource.

This. My plan (retiring in 2.5 years) is to have a withdrawal rate that is about the same as my portfolio interest and dividends. About 2%. I have all my funds set to pay those into a money market, not reinvest. Hopefully interest and dividends will be provide a perpetual income. In a recession, there might need to be an reevaluation, but that’s the plan.

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The entire idea behind the cushion is to draw it down when selling securities is not a good idea and to refill it when selling securities is a good idea.

Great synopsis, Gene.

I haven’t retired yet, but am planning to in the next year and a half. I’ve built a ‘cash cushion’ already of about four years’ worth of regular expenses plus a one-time large expense need (or five years’ worth of expenses).

Since our strategies are similar and you’ve more experience, I wanted to posit this question that I still have: do you have any concerns about a dwindling cushion in a longer than anticipated down market and being forced to sell portions of your portfolio at a low? The question also goes back to when is enough enough.

Thanks,
Pete

Not gene , but am navigating a similar course. My solution to when is enough enough is: All of our needs are covered by guaranteed income, in our case social security,which covers all needs,just barely.
Any dividends or capital gains cover wants.
Our withdrawal rate from our portfolio is currently two percent.This is constrained by our choice to keep ACA income low to subsidize health insurance.
Our portfolio is generally run at 85% stocks,15% cash. One third of the cash cushion backs up cash secured puts,so worst case,we would be 90/10.
We will move to a three or four percent withdrawal rate once we are on medicare.

JK

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We have probably 2 years of cash cushion, and in 6 months I’ll be able to tap my 401K if I have to. Medicare is 6 years away. SS is anytime after 3 years, but if I can wait 10 years it would be better. 1poorlady is 18 months behind me.

House will be paid-off by next year. In fact, I received a pay-off quote on Monday. If I go through with it, that expense will be gone and our annual expenses will be cut by about 1/3 (we had a 15 yr mortgage, so payments were a bit larger than a 30yr). Right now a return of 3.375% on that money would be better than most other options, which is effectively what I would get by investing in the mortgage pay-off.

Sorry for the bear market. It’s because we retired. I should probably flag folks when we do stuff so they can profit. If I sell a stock, that’s the time to buy. We retire, bear market. We’re very good contrarian indicators.

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I am overweight cash because I think stocks are overpriced. By waiting for better prices, I guess I am timing the market. Which I have repeatedly proven that I cannot do. So there.

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in 6 months I’ll be able to tap my 401K if I have to.

If you left the company that sponsors the 401(k) in or after the year you turned 55, you can tap your 401(k) now - you don’t have to wait 6 months (presumably until you’re 59 1/2?). If you have already rolled the 401(k) over into an IRA and you’re just calling it a 401(k) because that’s where all the money came from, you would have to wait until 59 1/2 to avoid penalties.

AJ

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1pg: Sorry for the bear market. It’s because we retired.

You scoundrel!

CNC

I haven’t rolled it yet, but I will soon. As near as I can tell, the only advantage to keeping it a 401K is that it cannot be touched in a lawsuit (i.e. someone sues me for some reason). The common “wisdom” I’ve heard for years is that you should get it out of the company 401K and into an IRA.

1poorguy

If you left the company that sponsors the 401(k) in or after the year you turned 55, you can tap your 401(k) now

Hey Aj, does that apply to solo 401k plans too?

https://www.irs.gov/retirement-plans/one-participant-401k-pl…

It says:
These plans have the same rules and requirements as any other 401(k) plan.

Not sure if that’s completely true.

Sorry for the bear market. It’s because we retired.

I bought a house this spring at the height of the market. I have not yet sold my old house and the market is softening. I retire in September.

PSU

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I haven’t rolled it yet, but I will soon. As near as I can tell, the only advantage to keeping it a 401K is that it cannot be touched in a lawsuit (i.e. someone sues me for some reason). The common “wisdom” I’ve heard for years is that you should get it out of the company 401K and into an IRA.

ERISA protected employer accounts, like 401(k)s, do enjoy Federal protections from creditors (other than the IRS), while protections for IRA accounts are dependent on state rules. Your state may place limits on how much is protected - you would need to check. However, there is also the advantage of being able to pull penalty-free from the 401(k) earlier than an IRA - in or after the year you turn 55, rather than having to wait until 59 1/2 or use SEPP withdrawals.

On the other hand, employers may charge fees in their 401(k) accounts, unlike many IRAs. Again, you would have to check on your employer’s plan. Additionally, in a 401(k), your investment choices may be limited compared to the investment choices you can make in an IRA, although some 401(k)s do offer an option to let you choose your own investments for at least part of the account.

One note: If you have company stock that has appreciated in a 401(k), you may want to investigate the NUA (Net Unrealized Appreciation). Either after you retire, or after you turn 59 1/2, and before you take another withdrawal from the 401(k), you can roll all the other assets into an IRA, but roll the company stock into a taxable brokerage account. You will pay ordinary income taxes on the basis of the stock, but the gains are immediately taxable as long-term gains, rather than at the ordinary income rates they would have been taxed at if you had rolled them to an IRA. If you only want to keep your ordinary income down due to ACA, you can choose to roll only part of the stock to the taxable account and leave the rest to be rolled to the IRA. Here’s a Kitces article with some additional details and strategies: https://www.kitces.com/blog/net-unrealized-appreciation-irs-…

AJ

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Hey Aj, does that apply to solo 401k plans too?

Sure, as long as you have actually ‘left the service’ of the self-employment - i.e. you are no longer earning income from self-employment, and no longer file Schedule Cs.

AJ

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Thanks, AJ. Shouldn’t need it…good to know.

Hi MataroPete,

“do you have any concerns about a dwindling cushion in a longer than anticipated down market and being forced to sell portions of your portfolio at a low?”

No, I don’t believe I do but that is based on our exact situation.

Our portfolio generates enough cash to fill our needs plus some. The cash payment is lumpy, not an even amount every month, but that has never been an issue before.

Normally, I just let cash accumulate in our cash position and either put it to work (invest) or flow it to our cash cushion.

If I had to sell in a market like we have been in, now would be the time I would choose. A strong day.

That is not optimal but it would get it done.

Many would wait for tomorrow. I don’t wait because tomorrow may be a 10% drop again.

Does that help you?

Gene
All holdings and some statistics on my Fool profile page
http://my.fool.com/profile/gdett2/info.aspx

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