As to your moves, Saul, thank you for sharing (again). I don’t move around as often as you and some others here and I’m not as concentrated, but I greatly appreciate the information and analysis.
AKA, I never left Mongo, have a pretty sizable position in Square already, am sitting on Elastic until I figure out my own path with valuations, never bought Gardant, am riding Alteryx to the moon, and have considered adding to both Twilio and Trade Desk this week.
I was only surprised that you added more to Twilio Saul, considering it was already +20% position for you. But then again, I just view it as a statement of just how confident you are in the company. (duh).
I figure with Guardant Health, even though it will be only 4 months or less now until FDA approval, you can always buy back in. Plus it was only a 2% or so holding for you I believe.
Glad to see you turned that speedboat around on MongoDB. 
Best,
Matt
And so mission critical software and services went without upgrades and support.
It is one thing to stop paying maintenance on software acquired under perpetual license and quite another thing for SaaS software. The perpetual software merely stops improving or being fixed, but the SaaS software is gone.
“how come he didn’t add more to TTD?” TTD always seems to be the stock that people doubt, and then the ER hits and they love it again, and then over the next 3 months doubt creeps back in.
Yep, Dreamer Dad, the doubt creeps back in. It’s an advertising stock after all, so doubt should creep back in. It’s, by definition almost, MUCH more risky than a SaaS company.
Best,
Saul
“if Elastic looks so over valued, why is Saul adding to it?”
Hi Money Slob, how could it not be over-valued growing revenue at over 70%. How many companies grow at a rate like that?
"SQ is still down 19% for me but you have given me faith.
Here’s for a little more faith …From my January summary: Its total revenue has grown year-over-year by 39%, 41%, 45%, 47%, 51%, 60%, and 68% in its last seven quarters. Instead of revenue growth returning to the mean, as they get larger their rate of revenue growth has increased each quarter, and accelerated. That 68% in Sept was up from 60% sequentially, and from 45% yoy. Extraordinary!
And read about their new products on their website.
Best,
Saul
Saul, Sure you noticed that Shop has been creeping back up there… you rethought MDB, SQ and Ntnx…and yet Shop could surprise us all…thoughts?
How did you decide to add TO TWLO, and MDB? I know they are great companies. Many… would say they have run up a fair bit and are likely to pull back. Why not wait for a better entry point?
Hi TexMex,
I added to Twilio because I think, as someone suggested on the board, that they will become the AWS of communications, a true powerhouse. I restarted MDB because I should be in it. I’m buying companies for a 300%-400% rise, at least (hopefully). That makes it a no-brainer. Get in for 300% or stay out and hope for a 3% or 5% drop? And maybe miss it completely.
Best,
Saul
I didn’t drop MDB when Saul dropped it. Unlike him, I do database driven applications for a living/hobby.
I don’t use MongoDB, nor do I have any other interest than just geeking out on it.
However, what kept me in it was the developers that answer and ask questions on StackOverflow.
As any developer knows, 95% of the time is spent on 5% of the problems.
Knowing how to ask a question on StackOverflow will bless you with solutions that would take a lot longer if you were to look for them elsewhere.
When opening up a question on StackOverflow, you must approach them with your head bowed, and peanuts in your hand, and not look in their eyes. If you look, they will jump on you and cyber-devour you. But, oh god, how many good solutions I’ve gotten from others on StackOverflow that suffered before me.
Anyway, I read they voted 100% for MongoDB being their favorite database.
That is why I stayed in MDB.
I simply have never made money on any stock that was not considered “overvalued”. Never, ever.
Of course there comes a point where enough is enough and it is a bubble. There is always an excess in the real world to anything. Even too many vitamins, too much love, etc. So don’t give me the exception to attack the rule.
If you think it is a bubble, by all means sell. That is my advice always. I will not ignore extreme valuations. To date, however, as Saul talked about, one would NEVER have invested in SHOP, EVER, if one did not invest in “overvalued” stocks.
One may very well invest in Talend (growth at reasonable value - as the phrase is so often used) but not Okta.
Each must follow their own ways, while still having the strength and flexibility to learn as we go.
Tinker
Anyway, I read they voted 100% for MongoDB being their favorite database.
Whoa!
Money, can you give us more details how this voting works and some context. I’d appreciate it. As this is clearly a very material number. Not so much as to whether to invest in Mongo, but as to how much confidence to give it, either to hold through thick and thin, or how much to allocate to it.
I did drop out of MDB for a few days, but immediately thereafter bought back in after ascertaining the innocuous nature of the threat from AWS. I’d prefer to never have to be concerned (naively) about such things again.
Thanks.
Tinker
Hmmm
I can’t remember and I could be crazy.
Still going to stay long.
This StackOverflow survey doesn’t say 100%, but it puts MongoDB way up.
Ok, these numbers are off that survey, but this guy makes the “Most Wanted” one more important.
MongoDB was most wanted.
https://www.mongodb.com/blog/post/stack-overflow-research-de…
I was only surprised that you added more to Twilio Saul, considering it was already +20% position for you. But then again, I just view it as a statement of just how confident you are in the company. (duh).
Hi Matt, That’s correct.
I figure with Guardant Health, even though it will be only 4 months or less now until FDA approval, you can always buy back in. Plus it was only a 2% or so holding for you I believe.
GH expects 3 major growth drivers for 360.
1)Pan-cancer FDA approval in 2019.
2)Pan-cancer medicare coverage (currently coverage is for non small cell lung cancer)
3)Results of their NILE study to demonstrate non-inferiority of guardant 360 in non small cell lung cancer. If they get favorable results this would mean those patients could have liquid biopsy tests instead of invasive lung biopsies/wedge resections.
Look at all the things that good go partly wrong. Only get approved for some cancers, the ones they’ve already worked with. Only get approved for come cancers on Medicare, and in some parts of the country, and not immediately. Nile study shows “almost” as good as invasive biopsies, etc etc.
Glad to see you turned that speedboat around on MongoDB.
Yep, my specialty is U-turns. 
Saul
Ok, I think why I came up with 100% percent because my eyes crossed after hearing that the survey had 100,000 developers answer it.
I didn’t drop MDB when Saul dropped it… I don’t use MongoDB, nor do I have any other interest than just geeking out on it. However, what kept me in it was the developers that answer and ask questions on StackOverflow… Anyway, I read they voted 100% for MongoDB being their favorite database. That is why I stayed in MDB.
Hi Moneyslob,
Gee, I wish you had posted that on the board BEFORE I got out, instead of now, when it’s all over.
Saul
Easy mistake to make. Still powerful evidence. There is so much resistance against Mongo from not just competitors but also status quo developers who are skeptical 
about the new, to simply those emotionally attached against or for something else.
It is difficult to find objective validation other than quarterly reports and a survey like this w 100,000 surveys (which is huge. Forget statistical error or substantial bias errors) that also corresponds w the DB rankings.
I did ask what database can replace Mongo as a general purpose modern database and no one had an answer other than for niche uses, but nothing that can do all Mongo does. Sure Postgres and Mongo share some use cases, Cassandra is great w huge data sets, etc but neither can replace Mongo.
And Cassandra is actually losing favor, relatively speaking as it is falling in the DB rankings.
I’ll take a closer look at the details.
Thanks.
Tinker
Actually, I thought I heard it over on NPI in between all the political nanny nanny.
Either that or in the Comments section of a Seeking Alpha “Analyst” article.
My lawyer friend (who now is a huge Saul convert by the way) quoted some survey that said the comments were more on the money than any of the articles on Seeking Alpha. That’s where I heard how ENPH would sooner or later start producing. And while we are at it with hazy scientific statistics. . . .
I guess I have a subscription to LinkinIn but I never read it. I’m done working for someone in 2 months 22 days and 2.25 hours. But. . . I just got an email saying Solar Panel Installers was considered one of the highest jobs in demand for 2019. Ergo ENPH.
thanks also to Putnid who is 75% ENPH and C.J. Roberts who comments and writes for Seeking Alpha.
John
I lose sleep if I own a stock that Saul doesn’t own.
But over on NPI Tinker talked about how, if RedHat dropping MongoDB didn’t the valuation, Amazon causing a temporary hiccup, not much more, and Google’s new version not even being mentioned, then maybe Tinker surmises that MongoDb has got all the big boys attention. Kinda like sincerest form of flattery.
So, that helped with lost sleep.
And, I am pretty sure, this was posted here on the Saul Index by PaulWBryant:
Patrick O’Shaughnessy has a podcast called “Invest Like the Best,” which I have seen mentioned on this board in the past. On the episode released today, he interviews Keith Rabois, who is now a venture capital investor, but who has also held senior positions at Paypal, LinkedIn, and Square.
Patrick pointed out that a lot of young companies get questions like, “Why are you doing this? Amazon’s just going to squash you.” He asked Keith if this actually happens.
Keith responded: “Yeah, I think it almost never happens. I’ve asked this question (and I never get a satisfactory answer, which probably suggests the answer) which is: Is there any high growth start up, and I can quantify what that means, but any start up that hit escape velocity, that a large competitor has ever, basically beat? And you have to struggle really hard through the history of the last 30 years to find examples, and so the fact that you have to struggle that hard to find examples suggests the answer, that that’s often true. It’s worth being consciously aware of, when an incumbent has unusual leverage, and understanding why your counter-leverage might offset that or not, so I think being paranoid is smart. But more typically, a focused, talented team with an ownership mentality and incentive alignment will out-execute a very large entity that on paper looks very threatening.”
Patrick: “Yeah, it’s a really interesting idea, and an encouraging one for smaller teams for sure.”
Keith: “Oh absolutely, I mean, this is the excitement behind silicon valley. We’re not all crazy.”
It’s interesting…we worry a lot about competition, but perhaps sustained revenue growth speaks for itself. I don’t think customers are stupid. Perhaps they’re spending their dollars with our companies because they need their products to succeed.
Just thought that was an interesting take.
Bear
About a week ago I had posted a breakdown of that stock overflow survey in response to another post here on Saul’s, maybe it got lost in the thread.
https://discussion.fool.com/the-open-source-project-that-i-perso…
Maybe you got the 100% from this.
Of 66,000 developers surveyed.
Mongo DB is #4 in use at 26%
The top three are MySQL, SQL Server, and PostregeSQL at 59, 41, and 33% respectively. All SQL databases.
The next NoSQL are Redis and Elasticsearch at 18% and 14%.
Amazon DynamoDB is way down at 5%.
And Cassandra at 3.7%.
As developers use more than one database, the numbers obviously don’t add up to 100%.
Under Most Wanted Database
https://insights.stackoverflow.com/survey/2018/#most-loved-d…
The numbers here add up to 100%
MongoDB is number 1 most wanted of all databases with 18.6%.
Elasticsearch is number 2 at 12.2%
Cassandra and Amazon DynamoDb both return about 6% on the most wanted list.
OK so MDB being most wanted by about 19% of developers (this is their choice for database they want to develop on most that they aren’t currently using) may not seem overly impressive. But its the second year in a row MDB was #1 in this category. There’s also 21 databases in the survey.
Looking at it another way, 50% more developers want to start using Mongo than the next 2 most wanted (Elastic and PostrgeSQL). 2x as many want to work with Mongo as the #4 Redis. And 3x as many want to start developing on Mongo as Cassandra or Amazon.
Would think that being foreward looking, that places Mongo in a good spot.
Darth
Denny,
Sorry, I don’t know the acros CaC and LTV. I probably should, maybe even did and have since forgotten. How about enlightening me (and others who don’t know them either, but didn’t ask)?
But irrespective of the meaning, I’m not sure that it would reflect the criteria I look for. The things Saul mentioned are all important, but to me the thing of vital importance is that the s/w, once bought into and in use becomes mission critical and deeply embedded in the business process.
Take Okta, if you’re not using it today, you’re getting the job done anyway. But once you start using it and it has wide deployment among the employee base, it’s really hard to walk away - make that near impossible. Why would you even go through all the turmoil of swapping it out for a competitor? It’s just not worth it unless there is a deep price differential (not likely).
Where I worked we went through more than one iteration of trying to reduce the application footprint. But the effort was largely directed at reducing redundancy, multiple applications that had been deployed in different divisions that did more or less the same thing. The notion was to pick the best of breed and phase out the others. But that was in the days of a lot of in house developed apps as well as license based COTS. I don’t recall a single app being under subscription, but I could be wrong, we’re talking thousands of apps, obviously I was not familiar with a lot of them.
When it came to mission critical deeply embedded s/w, even when there was considerable overlap, eliminating one in favor of the other was a non-starter. We had two primary PDMs (product data manager) in use in two different divisions. The divisions had almost entirely different customer base and very different products. So far as I know, both of those PDMs are still in use. I retired in 2010. It was just too costly and disruptive to consolidate down to one.