Darth, Guy,
I hear you guys on the worries over the reduced guidance, and I fully appreciate the choppiness of MDB over the last 6 months. The weeks of 3/13 and 6/3 have given as all our appreciation. Other than that, MDB has pooped out on us.
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NASDAQ-MDB/
I am a long MDB (12.8%) too. Some of the things that I like about MDB are:
- I am sure that some of you have a better handle on TAM that I do, but for rough estimates, the total estimated DB market to be about $40B with a 25% growth rate for 2019 and $50B with a growth rate of 22% is predicted for 2020 (p. 6 of Jason Ader report).
https://blocksandfiles.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Databa…
- The foundation for Atlas usage is exploiding.
Q2 19 = 5,300 users
Q3 19 = 8,300 users
Q4 19 = 11,400 users
Q1 20 = 12,300 users
Q1 20 = 15,000 users
- The relationship with cloud providers remains strong. From the earnings report we get:
Saw growing momentum with all three major cloud providers. The company experienced strong initial traction with GCP in the first quarter of the partnership. MongoDB also expanded its relationship with Microsoft by launching the availability of MongoDB Atlas on the Microsoft Azure Marketplace, simplifying billing for joint customers, and joining Microsoft’s Strategic Partner Reported ACR co-sell program. The company also delivered another record Atlas quarter on AWS.
- MDB Revenue as a percentage of the DB market from $346.1MM with a TAM of $50B = 0.7% of the total market.
Given the 95% of the value increase happens during 10% of the trading days with MDB, do you really want to sideline some of your holdings? I totally get the change with the revenue stream changes. I think you are spot on with your view given what management says, but when MDB pops is anyone’s guess. I think that someday MDB will provide the mother of all earnings surprises, and I want to be holding when it does. It still looks good to me. I am sitting tight.
Best,
bulwnkl