Fed started forward guidance under Alan Greenspan and under Bernanke it evolved further and Fed literally telegraphed their interest moves. Enter Kevin Warsh, who is neither doing forward guidance nor talking about reaction function. There is whole lot of nothing, he is refusing to talk. Why should Fed should be mystery? Fed can communicate their intentions and at what circumstances what they will do, etc. That never stops them from changing direction when things change.
For now, trading $TLT is becoming more risky, without commensurate risk premium, as volatility has increased.