I have so many questions! For instance, software is nothing without hardware. For Microsoft this was great (also great for Quicken, Oracle, et. al.), since somebody else shouldered the cost of designing the hardware, assembling the hardware, retailing the hardware, and finally purchasing the hardware. All they had to do was put the same software in a cardboard box and sell it for an exceptionally high price. Very high leverage business.
But the model you’re proposing for Tesla doesn’t give Tesla “software margins”, because they still are doing all the hardware with all the associated costs. It’s like Apple, in the early days, doing both hardware and software, which Bill Gates advised Steve Jobs was an inferior model.
Unless you’re saying that other car manufacturers are going to make cars which Tesla can then ‘import’ their robotaxi software into. That seems unlikely, since other cars will have different hardware and different sensors, in different locations in the vehicle, with different OS configurations to meet. That’s possible, I suppose, but will require a lot of hand-holding, not to mention regulatory compliance hoops.
As far as TaaS, I wonder, doesn’t that exist already? Can’t people call one of the 5 million Uber drivers, or 2 million Lyft drivers, or in some cities the hundreds of thousands of taxi drivers or limo drivers already? So … they can call a Robotaxi instead? The difference is that there isn’t a driver to pay - but there are still all the associated costs of maintenance (lower, maybe), fuel (lower), capital investment (same), management (more), overhead (same), depreciation (same). So by my very rough back of the envelope calculation we’ve eliminated … the driver, who as most anyone will tell you, is an underpaid schlub possibly making minimum wage. And that’s going to change everything?
I mean, if that’s going to convince people to go from two cars per family to one, why isn’t it happening already? Or is TaaS, in the famous epithet about nuclear power, going to be “too cheap to meter”?
And while I agree that styling would be less important, there will still be a segment for limos, for handicapped, and so on. I mean, who wants to pull up for prom night in a ‘98 Toyota?
How does Tesla’s collection of driving stats from owners have anything to do with where TaaS will have high demand? That kind of data is owned by Uber & Lyft, not Tesla. Maybe they will sell it to Tesla if they want to cut their own throat. By the way, the “charging and cleaning” will surely be less efficient than a human driver, who can gas up or clean up within a couple blocks of the need, whereas a robotaxi will necessarily have to drive to a more distant location, sort of like finding a charging station now. Which, I point out, will have to be manned 24/7, so they are unlikely to be found on every block.
Ah, so many questions. I’m sure you guys have answers. Let’s hear ‘em!