Sure - though you’ve switched from seeing “no reason” that they won’t be dominant to no reason they won’t “still be a major provider.” Here’s a few reasons they won’t be dominant:
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No one dominates the global auto industry generally. Consumer tastes, needs, and preferences are fractured. It’s an industry that countries use tariff and industrial policy to meddle with. And because cars are big and heavy, it’s tough for any one company to geographically dominate. So in the modern ICE era of globally traded cars, no one company ever had as much as 20% of the market, and almost never as much as 15%. And that’s before China takes its place on the global manufacturing stage, like Japan before it. So Tesla and BYD’s brief dominance of BEV’s is only temporary, an artifact of the transition period - once the market shifts, we’ll be back to a world where no company has a dominant role.
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BEV’s and Tesla have stopped growing fast. BEV’s have stopped taking market share from ICE’s, and it’s hybrids (both conventional and PHEV’s) that are continuing to grow. That’s definitely a reason to think rapid BEV growth was a product of the near-zero interest rate/high subsidy environment - which is ending, and may never return.
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You can’t be dominant globally without being dominant in China, and Tesla won’t stay dominant in China. Tesla blew their strategic planning with the Cybertruck instead of a mass-market car below the Model 3 for the Chinese market. The Chinese market is the most important EV and BEV market in the world - 60% of global EV’s and BEV’s are sold in China. Tesla’s ceding that portion of the market to the Chinese manufacturers for at least three years, which they’ll never be able to get back. They’re not fast or nimble enough. BYD introduced the Seagull in April 2023, and managed to sell a quarter million of them in China that year alone - Tesla hasn’t shown any ability to move that quickly. And they bear a lot of country risk in China, because if the government in the future decides that there’s overcapacity serving the Chinese EV market, there’s a good chance that they’ll keep Tesla from expanding.
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Tesla has been mediocre at some of the things car companies have to do. They’re inconsistent at matching their product lineup to future consumer needs - YES to the Model 3 and Model Y, but "??? to the Model X and Cybertruck and 2022 Roadster and Semi (why falcon doors or an $80K pickup truck or a new roadster, or a semi tractor if it eats so many batteries relative to your other offerings?). They haven’t even tried to run a public relations department or brand management effort or advertising shop for many years now. They don’t have a great track record at supplying parts to the aftermarket for repairs (which was a problem with the Hertz fleet) - not bad, just not great. That hasn’t come back to bite them yet because they’ve been able to thrive with only two mass-market models in a transition period - but those skills will be necessary in a more mature market, and Tesla hasn’t shown they have them at the level they would need to be dominant.
Those are just a few. The most speculative reason for doubting the bull case for Tesla’s EV segment dominating the market is that I think Elon will be completely uninterested the last half of it. Going from 0 to 2 million EV’s clearly involves changing the world, inventing brand new technologies and being on the bleeding edge. Going from 2 million EV’s to 4 million might involve some of that, though part of it is the “making autonomy work” part rather than just the “penetrating new EV segments and markets” part. But going from 4 million EV’s to 8 million? That’s probably not groundbreaking any more. It’s just the boring, tedious work of applying problems that have already been completely solved to new markets, with only incremental and minor improvements. If Musk genuinely thinks of Tesla as an AI/robot company that happens to make cars, rather than a car company, then it’s easy to imagine that once EV’s are “solved” for the most part, he’ll lose interest in devoting resources or time to “filling in the corners” of that enterprise and focus the company on moonshots like robotaxis and robots, rather than making a smaller cheaper (but not revolutionary) version of the Model 3 to fend off the Chinese in Asia and Europe or more fully developing the aftermarket repair part supply chain.