A rather amazing statistic!
Congratulations to you all! And happy New Year!
Why congratulations, you ask.
Well, in the year 2015, our single board had 28.6% of all the MF Posts of the Day, for all of Fooldom. That’s so amazing it’s almost unbelievable! I am really proud of all of you and what this board has accomplished. To reiterate, we got almost 30% all the Posts of the Day for ALL the boards in Fooldom.
You may well ask, Why is that so amazing? You’d have to know how many boards there are in Fooldom to choose from!
We are a free board. The Motley Fool has a lot of free boards. Here they are: http://discussion.fool.com. I counted the free stock boards under the letters A, B and C and got about 1250 boards. That’s just 3 of 26 letters so a rough, very rough, estimate would be about 10,000 free stock boards.
Then the Fool has about 34 categories of free boards that are not about specific stocks Again: http://discussion.fool.com. We can toss out half as being about social stuff rather than investing. How many boards would remain in each category? I roughly counted:
Investment Strategies - 170 boards
Industries - 84 boards
Investment Analysis Clubs - 335 boards — (Our board is in this category)
This comes to almost 600, but some other categories may be much smaller. For rest of the 17, or so, sort of investment oriented categories, let’s say roughly about 400 boards more, which gives us a sub-total of perhaps 1000 non-stock boards and a grand total of 10,000 + 1000 = 11,000 MF free boards. That’s just an estimate, as we don’t have to be even nearly exact.
Then we have MF paid services. SA with 270 boards, RB with about 264, HG with 246, IV with 91, MDP with 107, and so on. A little over another 1000 more.
So about 12,000 boards total, give or take a thousand or so. A rough guess.
Now over the course of the year the MF selects about 230 Posts of the Day. (That’s what they selected in 2015, anyway). So, if the posts were selected randomly each board could expect to have just ONE of its posts selected every 52 years!!! (12,000 boards divided by 230 posts equals a little over 52). The annual expectation of number of posts selected per board is 1/52 = .019 posts per year. We had 66 selected in one year. That’s 3,474 times expectation!!!
Granted, this is an inflated statistic because some of the boards we are competing against are inactive. So let’s knock out 50% of the boards, down to 6000 boards. So the annual expectation of an active board would be one Post of the Day in 26 years, instead of one in 52 years. Doesn’t change much.
Okay, lets assume 80% of boards are inactive and we are only competing against 20% of the Fool boards. That would be roughly 2400 boards, each of which could expect to have ONE of its posts selected every 10.4 years, with an annual expectation of 0.096 posts selected per year. We had 66 picked this year! Almost 30% of all the picks!
Okay, you get the picture. It IS amazing! We are really doing something special here. Thank you all for your participation and your help in making this board work as a place for reasoned discourse about investing in stocks.
Best wishes to you all, and a very happy new year.
PS Here are our month by month statistics:
MF Post of the Day Frequency - 2015
Jan - 4 of 20
Feb - 4 of 19
Mar - 5 of 22
Apr - 4 of 20
May - 6 of 19
Jun - 6 of 16
Jul - 8 of 15
Aug - 5 of 20
Sep - 7 of 20
Oct - 4 of 19
Nov - 6 of 20
Dec - 7 of 21
Total - 66 of 231 = 28.6%