A Recession is a Good Thing for the Economy

They are visionaries who know how to get the best work out of technologists.

Do they get the best work out of these folks? Or simply the most profitable?

–Peter

Apparently acting is good training for leadership provided you rehearse the right scenarios.

The Captain

Reagan made an err in even being in Beirut but he had the courage to make the right decision to “cut & run”. I’m sure he heard many in Washington say “How would it look to the world if the United States left.” There was no political solution to Beirut. An establishment politician would have stayed. And it would likely have ended up just like Afghanistan.
I give the current president great credit in leaving Afghanistan. The corrupt Afghanistan government only remained in power due to US troop presence.
Libya is now a terrorists haven cesspool as we removed dictator Qadaffi. No political solution there either.
The West has no understanding of the culture of Islam states. It is futile to attempt to bring democracy to these regions.
The US perpetual war regime change foreign policy has been a costly failure.

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Reagan … had the courage to make the right decision to “cut & run”.

I agree it was the practical choice and the reason, as you state (There was no political solution to Beirut), was the lack of preparedness to do otherwise. IOW, no rehearsal. If you read the book I linked you’ll see how well Reagan prepared to deal with the Red Menace.

The Captain

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Hence we hope the pros can arrange a soft landing.

Has there ever been a “soft landing” in the entire history of the world? If so, what are some examples?

"Sure, I’ll work nights and weekends for you if I’m getting time and half or double time. But as a salaried employee, if I work twice as many hours, my hourly rate is cut in half.

“F” that.

intercst"


exactly ! was always surprised when union techs took a “promotion” to 1st level management.
Made the same money as tech’s, but were tethered to their phone and laptop. Definitely not
a healthy job, but I guess the allure of a possible rise up the ranks, and not having to get
sweaty or dirty was a good enough reason for them. And the endless meetings they had to
attend…shoot me now, lol…

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Has there ever been a “soft landing” in the entire history of the world? If so, what are some examples?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/soft-landing-why-does-fed-151…
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has identified three examples when the Fed successfully engineered a soft landing: In 1965, 1984 and 1994, the central bank tightened monetary policy, reduced inflation and saw no decline in growth.

DB2

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Many employees have stories of being called into work at all hours, even on holidays, to deal with unexpected issues such as earthquakes, blackouts or any other disruption to production.

Such a worker culture would be anathema to many American workers.

As other have said that was not my experience before I retire. In a real emergency workers usually stepped up exceptionally well.

There are several variations on the saying “Poor planning on your part does NOT constitute an emergency on my part.” that you will often see on things like coffee cups and wall plaques.

I worked in corporate IT and some “crunch time” goes with the job but some companies really tried to abuse that and get their employees to work long hours just to make arbitrary deadlines and to not have to pay for additional staff.

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DB2’s post

three examples when the Fed successfully engineered a soft landing: In 1965, 1984 and 1994

is dead on and deserves a rec and I happily give it.

Reality exists. We have records of it. It pays for investors but also for nations and cultures to pay much closer attention to reality than to treasured myths, idiot alibis, and worst of all social media pursuing marketable rumors and falsehoods catering to ignorance and prejudice while masquerading as patriotic or obvious truths.)

The Fed can do a good job, and has done so in the past.

There is a beautiful Swedish folk song*** ascribed to a widow who cries out

“How can I navigate the boat with only one oar? With my oarsman mate dead the boat turns in circles no matter how hard I row.”

This is the sotto voce cry of Fed governors over the last couple of decades (in control of only monetary policy ever since bipartisan support for sane fiscal policies died).

david fb

“”"I knew the melody of the song from early childhood, as it had been passed down from my father’s father whose mother was (now repeating a favorite tale) a 16 year old who literally “jumped ship” from her father’s ship into San Francisco Bay and swam ashore to the Barbary Coast during the gold rush. Neither her husband nor children knew Swedish nor understood the words of the song, which she only sang accompanying herself on the piano when somewhat under the influence and feeling intensely emotional. But Dad’s father remembered the melody and taught it to his wife and son, who learned it and I from them. Beautiful and haunting but a mystery. Just 9 years ago a terrific Swedish Jazz Bass player, a neighbor on Mallorca, tragically died too soon. At the memorial get together, mostly jazz, a Swedish woman stood up and sang the song a capella, and I immediately recognized the melody as my family’s “lost secret”. She gave me the translative summary I wrote above.

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They are visionaries who know how to get the best work out of technologists.

Do they get the best work out of these folks? Or simply the most profitable?

There is no question that all three are willing to take risks to achieve their vision. Elon and Steve Jobs are well known for being demanding and asking their technical staff to work hard to achieve goals.

Profitable? Sure. When they succeed. But not all ventures succeed. Bezos seems most willing to test the waters on a good idea on a small scale and expand when it proves successful. Musk and Jobs took big risks and at times risked their companies.

Do they get the best work out of these folks? Or simply the most profitable?

That’s the question from the ‘we hate managers’ point of view. How about the view from the ‘technologists’ point of view? I happen to be one of those technologists so let me share my experience.

During my first two years at IBM I was having so much fun that I could care less about getting paid more. IBM worked us hard and I loved it. In my third year I was promoted from programmer to systems analyst which meant installing computers at client’s premises. This put me in contact with another part of the world. I suddenly realized I was doing the sales reps’ job and they were making a lot more money than I was so I asked for a raise. IBM’s response, “If you want a sales rep’s pay become a sales rep.” “How do I do that?” “We send you to sales school and give you a territory.” “OK!”

I was sent to Cuernavaca, Mexico, for a three week very intensive sales course where again they worked our asses off. By sheer coincidence my father had a friend from pre-war Germany in Cuernavaca and he told me to contact Sr. Jelinek. Lots of anecdotes from Sr. Jelinek and family who had two lovely daughters but this is not the time for those stories.

Back in Venezuela I got a very virgin territory and the crappiest boss I ever had. Why crappy? My previous bosses had worked my ass off but this one didn’t trust me so he kept me from doing things. Things went from bad to worse and when top brass from World Trade offered me a sales position in Trinidad with the country’s General Manager position as the reward if I sold my quota for two years I declined saying, “I’m not liking this sales business.” From programmer to country General Manager in seven years is quite a ride but due to my naiveté and lack of real world experience I declined.

From the above you can see that pay does matter but achievement for technologists trumps pay. A few technologists in the right place at the right time with the right ideas become million or billionaires. The rest just follow their dreams like most ordinary mortals and pay is just a necessity to achieve/afford them.

If it weren’t for capitalism there would be no TMF and we would not be talking to each other.

The Captain

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Has there ever been a “soft landing” in the entire history of the world? If so, what are some examples?

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has identified three examples when the Fed successfully engineered a soft landing: In 1965, 1984 and 1994, the central bank tightened monetary policy, reduced inflation and saw no decline in growth.

In a WaPo interview Larry Summers notes:
www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live/2022/05/31/trans…
I think that we need to recognize that a soft landing is going to be very difficult in these circumstances…David, nothing is certain in economics, and so no forecast should be made with greater than a 75 or 80% probability. But we do know this. We know as your clip introducing this quoted me to say that when inflation has been above 4% and unemployment has been below 4%, we’ve always had a recession within the last–next two years. And right now, inflation is well above 4% and unemployment is properly measured well below 4%.

So, I think the likelihood is that we’re not going to get through this with a soft landing.

DB2

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RONALD REAGAN CAUSES THE USSR TO FALL

Nope. The USSR fell because it was being run as a feudal fiefdom–with the bosses collecting the rewards. This had been happening for decades, so the rot was all way the through the society. It collapsed due to its own incompetence and mismanagement.

Nope! Although I agree with most of what you say there, it still took Ronald Reagan’s ACTIONS to push over the rotten USSR.

Without RONALD REAGAN the old USSR would have continued on like a dead tree; standing in the way of progress.

You can’t have it both ways:

EITHER

RONALD REAGAN was a bumbling idiot incapable of tying his own shoes

OR

RONALD REAGAN faced down the world’s second largest military power and won.

Methinks:
Meanwhile, Reagan escalated the rhetoric. In his famous 1983 speech to the National Association of Evangelicals, he outlined his strategy for victory. First, he labeled the Soviet system an “Evil Empire” and a failure—its demise would be a godsend for the world. Second, Reagan explained his strategy was an arms buildup that would leave the Soviets far behind, with no choice but to negotiate arms reduction. Finally, displaying optimism, he praised liberal democracy and promised that such a system eventually would triumph over Soviet communism.[306][307]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ronald_Reagan#Decline_of_the_S…

The USSR had become 48% non Russian. That was going to tip further. The USSR willingly disbanded by Russia to avoid that.

willingly disbanded**?**

Oh yeah dictators and despots do that all the time.
NOT!

I’m amazed at the logical knots some people are willing to tie in order to eschew admitting Ronald Reagan won the Cold War.

HOWEVER this thread is becoming to political so I’ll slap my hand every time I try to post on it again.

Just one more thing before I go …

No really I just want to say …

But …

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They are visionaries who know how to get the best work out of technologists.

Do they get the best work out of these folks? Or simply the most profitable?

What’s the difference?

What’s the difference?

When you get the best work out of employees, the employees look back at that time fondly and are proud of the work they did.

When you get the most profitable work out of employees, they look back and say I should have asked for more money.

–Peter

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admitting…the US…won the Cold War.

Dave,

We survived the war very prosperously. Yes.

How did the US/admin of the time change the minds of the Kremlin into giving up about 33% of the territory of the USSR?

It really was because the Russian majority was down to only 52% of the USSR population, and going lower.

The splitting up of the Soviet Union was voluntary. Think about that.

The US did not actually force the USSR to split up. Yes our admin called the Kremlin evil. That is the point, the Eastern Orthodox Christian roots in Russia claimed their ~67% of the land mass and broke it up. Calling the Kremlin evil was in tune with the decision making by the Kremlin to go back to the Russian roots and borders.

There is no tying it in knots. I just wont swallow horse hockey pucks for nothing.

When you get the best work out of employees, the employees look back at that time fondly and are proud of the work they did.

When you get the most profitable work out of employees, they look back and say I should have asked for more money.

Or bought stock!