A Thanksgiving Cornucopia!

OT Stuff - Happy Thanksgiving to all those giving thanks! Once in awhile it’s good to look back! The declaration of a national Thanksgiving holiday was intended to bring our divided country together…seems like we need to remember this important history now, more than ever!

Good listen / read on the underlying history of our often misunderstood holiday -

https://www.npr.org/2024/11/21/1214380338/mother-of-thanksgiving

Macro Stuff - The price of the Thanksgiving meal is often used as a measure of inflation. Whose prices should we use? Being a foodie, I prefer to use the Julia Child measure -

Shocker…prices are up in 2025. Turkey is driving most of the increased cost.

“Turkey hens sold for about $1.65 per lb last autumn, Purdue’s Center for Food Demand Analysis and Sustainability found, while they are expected to fetch $2.05 per lb on average this Thanksgiving.”

While shopping for some various accoutrements at Kroger’s this past Sunday I noticed that whole frozen turkeys were selling for $.89 per lb.

Turkey prices at places like Walmart and Kroger’s shouldn’t be used to justify lower inflation because -

"However, prices vary significantly as some supermarkets prefer to price their turkeys as loss leaders, encouraging customers to do the rest of their holiday shopping in their store.

The American Farm Bureau Federation’s Thanksgiving consumer survey found turkeys advertised at less than $1 per lb by some retailers, despite the almost 70 per cent wholesale price increase on last year."

More OT Stuff - Seeing that we could’ve bought a 16 lb turkey for less than $20, La Demonia asked why we spent $100 for a Diestel Farms turkey. I tried to explain the difference in quality, the abuses of industrialized turkey factories, and then sarcastically said…“We should be thankful we can afford a turkey that doesn’t have a plastic pop-up in the breast.”

She reminded me that Thanksgiving isn’t about being thankful, it’s about giving thanks.

Pinche La Demonia…

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I picked up Honeysuckle young turkey at Walmart near me for $0.49/lb. A main protein for 6 at less than $8 is damn impressive. Toss in stale bread ($0.99 for 2 loaves - clearance), ($1.98/Doz)eggs, spices, ($0.79/lb) sweet potatoes, ($2.99) cauliflower, ($1.29) frozen spinach and a couple cans of ($0.69) pumpkin, ($1.19) cranberry sauce, etc. for a total of just over $22 is impressive. Damn impressive.

With everything, we pay for convenience. We pay for labor. We pay for peoples time.

The raw materials have been cheep cheep cheep for a while now.

But then, that doesn’t fit the narrative.

Unfortunately, it has a plastic pop up in the breast. Currently brining in salt, sugar, red pepper flake and achiote spices.

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I should add, that price was posted LAST THURSDAY in Florida. This is not a last minute thing.

Also, I confirmed that in Alaska, similar product was for sale for $0.69/lb. In Missouri, $0.49.

Either Walmart is trying to help, or the prices are inflated for profit. (or, perhaps somebody over produced?)

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Turkeys are priced as a “loss leader” at multiple retailers. It’s a strategy to get customers into the store to spend money on more profitable items. Very typical during the holiday season.

Overall - turkey supply is lower this year due to avian flu. It’s actually at a 40 year low. That’s why wholesalers are paying 70% more per pound.

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Here in Mexico we have to order in advance to get big USAian turkeys suitable for t-giving feast. Those prices were up somewhat this year, but I do not think as big a % jump as last year (hey memories….).

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Loss leader. Yep. That’s why I posted the entire meal costs. It’s less than $4 a person for a celebration meal. I couldn’t complain about that.

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Clearly it depends upon the menu. Here’s another take, one from the Farm Bureau…

The American Farm Bureau Federation’s 40th annual Thanksgiving dinner survey provides a snapshot of the average cost of Thanksgiving staples that make up a classic holiday feast for 10, which is $55.18 or about $5.52 per person.

This is a 5% decrease from 2024. Three years of declines don’t fully erase dramatic increases that led to a record-high cost of $64.05 in 2022.

DB2

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And…it depends on the information you cherry pick from your link -

“While the wholesale price for fresh turkey is up from 2024, grocery stores are featuring Thanksgiving deals and attempting to draw consumer demand back to turkey, leading to lower retail prices for a holiday bird.”

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What was quoted was the first couple of paragraphs (not to mention the headline – “Cost of Thanksgiving Diner Declines”). Cherry pick? I think not.

By the way, retail prices are what people are actually pay.

DB2

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Inflation measures are imperfect. Retailers make pricing decisions for lots of reasons that can mess with the numbers. Also, inflation isn’t limited to what consumers pay.

Consumers are concerned about retail prices, wholesalers are concerned about their costs. METAR is concerned about both.

My bad, I meant to type Cherry pie…Happy Thanksgiving!

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Happy Thanksgiving!

I’ll submit that there were some household staples not included in those lists above in my post:

Butter
Milk
Flour
Salt
Sugar
(I did mention this implicitly - spices, however)

Energy to cook, process and finish/hold warm the meal. Cool the leftovers
Water to cook, clean, rinse, drink, etc.

Also not included: 15 different bottles of my favorite scotch, whisky, rum, vodka and mixers to complement DW’s penchant for fruity, but sour/bitter cocktails.

These are quite fun to mix with, by the way!

Of course, I don’t expect that all of average families across our great nation will serve their cooking on porcelain plates; perhaps they’ll use chinet. I bet it tastes just as good and they use similar methods.

Enjoy the day!

By the way, that $7.64 turkey was on the brine since yesterday morning and is now on the Traeger at a neighbor’s house. I CANNOT wait until 6pm. :smiley:

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Smoked turkey sounds delicious. I’ve never used the real purees for cocktails at home. Thanks so much for sharing!

Just curious, what’s your favorite scotch? I wasn’t a scotch fanatic until we traveled with the family to Scotland during spring break 15+ years ago. I’m a fan of Highland Park, Balvenie, and Speyside offerings.

Oban for this consumer…

DB2

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Thanks for sharing Bob! Oban is a solid scotch.

Just got done spatchcocking my turkey…it’s not as dirty as it sounds.

DH doesn’t like turkey so I made a lasagne.

93% / 7% ground beef in a 3 pound 2-pack at Safeway.

I didn’t keep track of the cost. Ricotta, mozzarella, romano cheeses.

Eggs.

Spaghetti sauce.

Instant lasagne noodles. This is my only concession to fatigue. The hardest part of a classic lasagne is wrangling boiling hot, slippery pasta.

Wendy (lasagne just came out of the oven)

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Husband and me in Mexico just had our feast with our brilliant youngish assistant, “Lalo”, and his mother, “Mamá”:

One reheated Big Turkey Breast from local Costco
Cranberry sauce from frozed cranberries and oranges from our garden
Gravy from chicken broth and mushrooms
potato w/ skins, garlic, chopped chilies, all mashed in
elote (local corn on the cob cooked on grill)
Green beans and asparagus
Amsterdam style apple pie

We discussed the nature of the emotion of thankfulness….

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Happy Thanksgiving! ( throwing in my hat for Lagavulin )
Spot

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I’m a little surprised that made it past the censors.

DB2

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