Extremely sad to see this oppression. But until you mentioned it, I hadn’t thought it would affect AAPL. Maybe I should avoid investing in companies like Apple or Tesla that have major reliance on the country since things are so crazy there.
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Rob, I hear you.
I’m a long-term $AAPL LTBH type, but, just this week, I’ve begun to lighten up on the $AAPL shares with this warning that we might see a 30% drop off in $AAPL production at Foxconn next week.
Can you imagine if this discontent spreads to other factories, such as Tesla (as you suggest) or Ford, Mercedes, or any number of hundreds of Western companies setup with manufacturing in China?
I have to wonder how fast production is being offshored from China (sounds funny, right?) to nations with lower wages such as Vietnam, Indonesia, etc.
Xi had better find his Fortress of Solitude somewhere as the Chinese people feel more encouraged by the safety of numbers in protesting everything from Xi’s self-aggrandizing 3rd term (and now Premier for Life), the firing and disappearance of numerous CCP leaders, captains of industry in Real Estate, chips, lending, construction, etc. There’s very bad mojo afoot in the land of dragons.
Ten to one we hear from $AAPL in the next 90 days that they are moving more manufacturing out of China for safer borders.
$AAPL daily, weekly, and monthly charts
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I thought it interesting to see the Premier of Germany visit Xi today, one on one, about trade. You know Xi has to be re-checking his calculus on supporting the bloody losing tyrant Mad Vlad. Xi needs to backpedal faster from Putin before the world breaks into a duopoly of nation-states run by dictators and the remaining world struggling to keep Democracy alive.
I was about to update this two or three days ago with new videos shot from inside the locked down Foxxconn plant in China.
I had my hands of some video showing police inside the compound, cleaning out dorm rooms of all belongings and tossing them into a mountainous pile of refuse on the ground outside the dorms.
Meanwhile, as of yesterday, 40,000 workers are estimate to have fled Foxxconn, while 8 people (all unconfirmed) have died from COVID.
Authorities have now started rounding up runaways and keeping them in armed anti-contagion lockdown camps.
But it is what is happening at the plant which really raises the eyes as to how out of control Chinese protests have become.
Violence broke out all over the Foxxconn campus last night as armed troops and police moved in to keep rioters from leaving. This did not end well, and, it is getting worse.
Making this panic all the worse: as stated above a rumor has it 8 young people at Foxxconn died form COVID. Note: I’ve read this several times on Twitter, but, no Western media has certified this as true.
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I’ve listened to five different video clips about these riots and no one has yet mentioned any deaths from COVID; however, lack of COVID protocols and healthcare at this plant are some of the top issues pushed by rioters, many of whom who haven’t been paid in weeks and who are trapped in a locked down plant.
Apple’s largest cellphone market is China.
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Workers at the Foxconn Technology Group plant streamed out of dormitories in the early hours of Wednesday, jostling and pushing past the white-clad guards they vastly outnumbered, according to videos sent by a witness to portions of the protest. Several white-suited people pummeled a person lying on the ground with sticks in another clip. Onlookers yelled “fight, fight!” as throngs of people forced their way past barricades. At one point, several surrounded an occupied police car and began rocking the vehicle while screaming incoherently.
The protest started overnight over unpaid wages and fears of spreading infection, according to the witness, asking to remain anonymous for fear of repercussions. Several workers were injured and anti-riot police arrived on the scene Wednesday to restore order, the person added.
In one video, irate workers surrounded a silent, downcast manager in a conference room to voice grievances and question their Covid test results. It wasn’t clear when the meeting took place.
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I find it interesting to notice how the cover photo for the video in your post has been manipulated. The central image has been converted to black and white, then been cut in half and repeated to each side. That has the effect of making the image seem wider and the crowd larger. Of course I have no idea if this is an attempt to change the impact of the photo from what the original image may have been. But I no longer fully trust anything coming out of China.
–Peter
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Good eye, PT.
Meanwhile, you sent me re-checking and I’ve discovered an addition to his written headline. Now drudgereport is now reporting security forces are beating the workers:
I am betting the authorities in India are rubbing their hands together with anticipation that more manufacturing is coming their way:
https://archive.ph/1MOfv#selection-219.0-241.234
If you were planning to buy an Apple iPhone 14 Pro or Pro Max before the end of the year, well, it would appear you are too late.
A check on the Apple (ticker:AAPL) online store on Wednesday found projected delivery times for both models in all configurations of Jan. 3, a delay of 41 days. There are no delays at all for the less popular cheaper versions of the phone—the base level iPhone 14 and the iPhone 14 Pro have no wait time at all.
Earlier this month, Apple warned that Covid-related measures have temporarily impacted the primary iPhone 14 Pro and Pro Max assembly facility, operated by Hon Hai—also known as Foxconn —in Zhengzhou, China. “We now expect lower iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max shipments than we previously anticipated and customers will experience longer wait times to receive their new products,” Apple warned.
$AAPL daily, weekly, and monthly charts
Despite the strong looking charts, I finally unloaded all $AAPL shares today held in the accounts I trade and administer to. The reason is $AAPL is held in three or four of the monthly dividend payers I am now adding to on a weekly basis. $AAPL could have a double-digit drop on worsening news out of China. If so, there’s safety in numbers. Some of these ETFs have more than 100 symbols. Some just 40. That said, I love Apple products design and use, and I’m still bullish on them. But now, I will “buy” $AAPL when purchasing these monthly dividend payers.
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This look at Foxxconn Riots from DWS, a German media. The second-half of this video looks at the dismal future for Chinese college graduates. The market is so tight for recent grads, that 58% of college grads are now re-matriculating in post-grad programs with hopes the jobs market will improve by their second graduation:
AAPL has been such a fabulous investment for many years… but these days I’m reluctant to put money there.
The growth rate in recent years doesn’t seem adequate to support that PE and the troubles in China are concerning.
Oddly… on my part… I have quite a bit in TSLA, which has it’s largest production coming out of the Shanghai plant. Seems similarly risky, but the authorities in Shanghai seem to be more pragmatic about COVID restrictions than the authorities where Foxconn/Apple operates.
Rob
He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain what he cannot lose.
Apple is hammering at the telegraph key that they are concerned enough to move corporate boots onto the Foxxconn Campus and that they have already started moving production elsewhere. I am betting this is the year (2023 that is) where we see Cook and Apple bring more manufacturing out of China to the point where only 50% of iPhones are made inside China any longer.
The Zhengzhou plant produces about 80% of the latest iPhone 14 models, making its continued operation critical for Apple, which warned this month that shipments of its newest iPhones will be lower than expected going into the peak holiday season. In a worst-case scenario, Morgan Stanley said, it’s possible no more iPhones will be shipped from the site this year.A spokesperson for Apple said in a statement that the company had staff members at Zhengzhou facility and was “reviewing the situation and working closely with Foxconn to ensure that their employees’ concerns are addressed.”
Tim Cook, who championed the development of Apple’s China supply chain before he took over as chief executive officer from Steve Jobs in 2011, is developing alternatives. Assembly partners such as Foxconn are making more iPhone 14 models in India than any previous generation and are beginning to use the country as an export base. Foxconn is also expanding in Vietnam and Thailand. That’s a sign of how Chinese President Xi Jinping’s Covid policies are threatening China’s economic growth.
“It’s very telling that a company like Foxconn is already moving into other countries,” Herrero says.
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Aha, we can finally bury this rumor:
https://archive.ph/akENu#selection-3825.0-3829.76
With a growing number of people forced into isolation, rumors and misinformation started to spread. A video clip claiming that eight female workers died inside a dorm room went viral among workers and on Chinese social media, prompting Foxconn to issue a denial. Fact-checking organizations later determined that the rumors were untrue.
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Daniel Ives, managing director of equity research at Wedbush Securities, told CNN Business that the ongoing production shutdown in Foxconn’s sprawling campus in the central Chinese city of Zhengzhou was an “albatross” for Apple.
“Every week of this shutdown and unrest we estimate is costing Apple roughly $1 billion a week in lost iPhone sales. Now roughly 5% of iPhone 14 sales are likely off the table due to these brutal shutdowns in China,” he said.
Demand for iPhone 14 units during the Black Friday holiday weekend was much higher than supply and could cause major shortages leading into Christmas, Ives said, adding that the disruptions at Foxconn, which started in October, have been a major “gut punch” to Apple this quarter.
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Same CNN link. Xi will not be pleased to read or hear this:
Kuo said on Twitter that he believed Foxconn would speed up the expansion of iPhone production capacity in India as a result of Zhengzhou lockdowns and resulting protests.
The production of iPhones by Foxconn in India will grow by at least 150% in 2023 compared to 2022, he predicted, and the longer term goal would be to ship between 40% and 45% of such phones from India, compared to less than 4% now.
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Reuters this morning:
Customers in the United States wait for about 33 days for their iPhone 14 Pro and Pro Max models to be delivered home, while the same models are not available for in-store pickup, the brokerage said.
Wall Street predicts Apple could lose some volume due to production disruptions, with Wedbush Securities expecting at least 5% of units being affected and potentially up to 10% in the first quarter.
Wall Street predicts Apple could lose some volume due to production disruptions, with Wedbush Securities expecting at least 5% of units being affected and potentially up to 10% in the first quarter.
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Apple’s share price fell 2% Monday afternoon, part of a broader market selloff sparked by worries of China’s unrest. The stock has outperformed its major tech peers with only an 18% drop year to date; the Nasdaq Composite Index has slid 29% in that time.
But growing unrest in China furthers the questions for Apple’s long-term direction beyond just near-term iPhone sales. Substantially all of the company’s products are manufactured in China. That reliance has grown more tenuous as tensions have risen between China and the U.S.
The unprecedented nature of the latest protests adds a new element of risk that is likely to hang over any foreign business operating in China, and Apple isn’t just any foreign business. It is the world’s most valuable company and is so large that it requires its own “city” just to build iPhones, shipments of which now exceed 230 million units every year. In a note earlier this month, Bank of America analyst Wamsi Mohan wrote that “meaningful diversification from China-based manufacturing is many years away” for Apple.
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DeSantis doing the work of Musk who has already said he would support DeSantis in 2024. No surprise DeSanctimonious is playing up to Elon Musk with this:
Another story alluding to Musk’s pro-Republican bent on Twitter
In particular, Musk wants Twitter to make much more money from direct subscriptions and not advertising. But Apple’s 30% cut of purchases made inside apps is a major hurdle for a company that is slashing costs and has a significant debt load.
So Musk could pull an Epic Games move and enable direct billing, spurring Apple to take action, while at the same time framing the debate around free speech. If that happened, as DeSantis suggested, perhaps Congress would start asking questions. Apple would become a football in political debates. Executives could be forced to testify or provide written responses.
At the very least, you’d have lawmakers such as Vance using the words “monopoly” and “Apple” in the same sentence. That’s a risk to Apple’s brand. Debate over these topics could reenergize pending regulation such as the Open Markets Act which threatens its control over the App Store and its significant profits.
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