Sauls board is indeed about growth stocks but the emphasis is mostly speculative stocks with no earnings. Theres a whole nother class of growth stocks not discussed there.
Sauls board is indeed about growth stocks but the emphasis is mostly speculative stocks with no earnings. Theres a whole nother class of growth stocks not discussed there.
How have those stocks done in the last few months?
CNC
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How have those stocks done in the last few months?
Since the beginning of this year
SNOW -200pts or -63%
UPST 106pts or -74%
NET -82pts or -65%
CFLT -49pts or -70
DDOG -74pts or -45%
MNDY -195pts or -64%
ZS -151pts or -50%
Bill -120pts or -52%
some of these stocks are up if you had been holding them for the past five years, but the majority are down. This board is not for the risk adverse.
Monday Morning Rules of the Board https://discussion.fool.com/monday-morning-rules-of-the-board-35ā¦
Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered
https://www.fool.com/investing/stock-market/basics/pigs-get-ā¦
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Since the beginning of this year
SNOW -200pts or -63%
UPST 106pts or -74%
NET -82pts or -65%
CFLT -49pts or -70
DDOG -74pts or -45%
MNDY -195pts or -64%
ZS -151pts or -50%
Bill -120pts or -52%
I have owned SNOW and DDOG. Happy to say I emptied the basket at the end of last year.
CNC
ā¦ A collection of mutual funds from American Funds.
Also, CRWD -14%.
I was late to the party (Saulās board), so I havenāt held any of that for 5 years. Fortunately, I donāt hold most them. UPST, CRWD, DDOG. Most of what I do have is negative right now, except for COST and my company stock (both of which Iāve held a long time).
How are your American Funds doing?
How are your American Funds doing?
Has been better. Worst is New Perspective. Last 12 months -18.19%
Even my Income Fund of America is down: -3.77%
CNC
Several posters on the Value board have been discussing Saulās prospects there as such postings are not allowed on Saulās board.
At the moment the prospects of Sauls stocks look grim to me.
The business appear to remain solid. The entire market it down, and more volatile stocks should be down more.
Not defending him, nor condemning him. Just stating a fact. When the market finally recovers, it will be interesting to see if these recover faster or continue to flounder (i.e. the stock priceā¦the companies are still growing like gangbusters).
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At the moment the prospects of Sauls stocks look grim to me.
Every one of them? Why? A number of them are doing quite well as businesses, even if their share prices went berserk, and they are probably more immune to macro issues than are most other businesses. Morningstar rates a number of them 4 or 5 stars, based on business and current share price.
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A number of them are doing quite well as businesses, even if their share prices went berserk, and they are probably more immune to macro issues than are most other businesses.
Excuse my cynicism, but in SaulWorld this is irrelevant. The game there is momentum trading in a particular segment, it has nothing to do with whether the company will be doing well in 18 or 36 months.
If their share prices went berserk, then (in that sphere) itās long past time to dump them. I give Saul credit for having a formula and sticking to it, a lot of the other posters there donāt seem to get it. In, out, lather, rinse, repeat. He buys, then heads for the exit at the first whiff of smoke (even if it turns out to be the neighbor just frying bacon.) His trigger finger twitches twice before mine even gets itchy.
Whether those companies are susceptible to macro issues is likewise irrelevant; if you are waiting for them to re-acquire the berserk-ness, I think you may be waiting a very long time. (Having watched a few bubbles in my time itās hard to remember when a stock which went āberserkā plummeted and then regained that former glory. There may be a couple I canāt think of but most have not done so: AOL, MSFT, CSCO, etc. Oh wait, Apple. Clearly an outlier. Oh, and BitCoin, but I think we all agree thatās not the same thing at all.)
Anyway, not a slam against Saul or the āmethodā, just noting that itās a totally different game, all our rules do not apply.
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Excuse my cynicism, but in SaulWorld this is irrelevant.
Yes, I know. But the comment was about whether those stocks might be sensible investments for sensible people now that their share prices have descended back to earth. And, as I noted, some fairly sensible analyses suggest that at least for some of them, the answer may be āyesā.
I bought a bit of SNOW after it dropped below its IPO price recently. I also had a bit of CRWD, bought post-thrashing, but sold it for a modest profit. M* regards DDOG, ZS, MDB at current prices favorably.
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If their share prices went berserk, then (in that sphere) itās long past time to dump them.
Iām not sure why Iām prolonging this (or defending Saul, sort of), but: this is exactly not what Saulās done. To the contrary, heās held many of those stocks long after he (arguably) should have sold them, precisely because valuation is irrelevant to him. The businesses continued to grow revenues at a healthy pace, and so he didnāt care that shares were selling at 30, 40, 50 times sales.
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I donāt follow Saulās stocks. I prefer growth stocks with earnings. Those without earnings are too speculative for me. But to each his own. Your mileage may vary.
Yes, Saulās board seems concerned that stocks with excellent growth prospects can falter. But indeed they can. And that can make for an excellent buying opportunity. Or there can be more bad news ahead. It becomes a timing issue. Now may not be the right time.
I donāt follow Saulās stocks. I prefer growth stocks with earnings.
Even those with earning are not immune to this sort of volatility. Take boom to bust Upstart. EPS of 1.6 and PE of 23. Down something like 80% from ATH.
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I donāt follow Saulās stocks. I prefer growth stocks with earnings.
Thatās fine. But just for the record, a goodly number of the so-called Saul stocks have earnings, positive cash flow, and little if any debt. Theyāre not all unicorns.
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If their share prices went berserk, then (in that sphere) itās long past time to dump them. I give Saul credit for having a formula and sticking to it, a lot of the other posters there donāt seem to get it. In, out, lather, rinse, repeat. He buys, then heads for the exit at the first whiff of smoke (even if it turns out to be the neighbor just frying bacon.) His trigger finger twitches twice before mine even gets itchy.
This characterization is also wrong. Since Saul makes a point of staying fully invested at all times, he doesnāt ādump themā, he just switches from one to another. And sometimes he goes back in to a company he got out of, even at a higher price, if he decides it was bacon he smelled and not the bad kind of smoke. And whoās to say that the share price has gone āberserkā and wonāt go much higher. So long as the company is executingā¦
His MO is truly simple: stay fully invested in about 10 of the best companies. And everybody gets to decide for themselves what the best companies are. But for now, Saul believes that means hypergrowth SAAS companies. And itās easy to see why āvalue investorsā are appalled ā the best companies always seem expensive.
-IGU-
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Excuse my cynicism, but in SaulWorld this is irrelevant. The game there is momentum trading in a particular segment, it has nothing to do with whether the company will be doing well in 18 or 36 months.
Momentum trading refers to following stock price trends. This isnāt even vaguely what Saul does. You get shut down for discussing stock prices on Saulās board.
What Saul actually follows are very high growth metrics. If a company is growing some metric like revenue or sales or new customers at more than 50% a year, that is an interesting stock whether its stock price has recently risen or fallen.
If Saul was trading price momentum, he would have gotten out of his port which has been falling in price since November 2021. But since he is trading growth metrics, he holds these stocks even as their price falls, as long as their business growth continues.
Like many strategies, Saulās comes under attack precisely when it is most likely to do well: when its stock prices are lower. The loudest posters on any board seem to believe the winning strategy is buy high and sell low.
R:
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Ralph: Like many strategies, Saulās comes under attack precisely when it is most likely to do well: when its stock prices are lower. The loudest posters on any board seem to believe the winning strategy is buy high and sell low.
So is now the time to back up the truck and load up on Saul stocks? I sold all of mine in December.
CNC
Momentum trading refers to following stock price trends. This isnāt even vaguely what Saul does
If thatās the definition of āmomentumā you use, then you are correct. Perhaps I used it carelessly, but I meant his system works on sales and growth momentum, irrespective of profitability or stock price.
There was a time when I paid attention to that, but once you acquire wealth it becomes a vastly different game: capital preservation, which is where I am. The idea of āvalueā is a non-starter there, thatās what I was referring to.
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When I read Saulās comments about how he views a company, and the āmetricsā used for investing decisions, I see a giant, starry, flashing golden āGORILLA GAMEā sign.
Innovators; early adoptors; chasm; tornado; maintsreet.
Saul tries to find Gorillas as they finish crossing the chasm, and enter the tornado phase.
He bails as soon as the metrics begin to indicate the business is entering āmainstreetā.
This is also related to TALC (Technology Adoption Life Cycle). Saul attempts to identify Technology that is in the Hockey Stick portion.
Iāve never seen Saul mention GG. This is just the mental image I get when reading his writings.
I also do NOT think that Saulās style is exactly GG.
Iāve read a few investors/posters who claimed to follow GG, but mostly they were unable to clearly explain what they were thinking.
IMO, Saul is the first/only person who clearly explains his thoughts.
JMO
ralph