So he’s got a 9.5% stake worth c6 billion and can make a roughly 25% return on this if the deal goes through at 95 dollars with MSFT. A similar situation where WEB has cloned T or T with scale. Eg Apple. A nice 1.5bn idea! As Pabrai mentions don’t be ashamed to take and use others ideas, it can be a very profitable endeavour.
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I would call it a 20% chance it doesn’t go through which would lead to a 25% drop in stock price vs 80% chance it does go through and 25% increase. Doesn’t seem like a bad idea, I would say there is a greater than 50% chance the S&P is lower over the next year and a half anyway.
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