Affirm/Fastly

Affirm discussion on the board gave me Fastly deja vu.

To me, both of the companies share the following:

  • Product is complex: the hype around the product was not easy to understand and explain why the company can enjoy a long uninterrupted growth e.g. edge compute for Fastly, BNPL in general

*Numbers are complicated: Fastly revenue has the pay by usage part that made it hard to know if it was Covid tailwind or not. I can’t wrap my head around Affirm’s financials.

  • Price action driven mostly by positive news outside of earnings season

The lesson I learned from the board and the Fastly saga (I was invested myself) was that opportunity cost associated with falling in love with a company is very very expensive: Affirm may be a winner but currently it doesn’t seem to have all the numbers to support it being a grand slam.

A year ago, as a newbie to the board, I felt I was missing out on Fastly. Today I’m comfortable passing on Affirm and bet my money elsewhere.

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