AI and excess elites

Historian Peter Turchin coined the phrase “excess elites” to describe upper class or highly educated people who feel entitled to superior positions…but there simply aren’t enough superior positions for all of them. These excess elites have enough resources and education to spread their discontent to the downtrodden masses. This has happened many times and caused social and political upheavals. (cf. the book “Secular Cycles.”)

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/ai-and-the-coming-white-collar-political-upheaval-25d30721?mod=hp_opin_pos_2

AI and the Coming White-Collar Political Upheaval

Manufacturing job losses in the 2000s affected politics. Disruptions to desk jobs will too.


By William A. Galston, The Wall Street Journal, Nov. 4, 2025

….> huge snip describing layoffs from large companies <…

The recent “don’t hire, don’t fire” labor market is giving way to a broad economic restructuring as companies try “to be at the front edge of bringing AI into the way they work.” He predicted that others would follow suit as the narrative of AI-induced change takes hold.

These developments are hitting newly minted college graduates especially hard. Anecdotes abound of graduates submitting hundreds of job applications without receiving a single reply, and the data back up these stories. The National Association of Colleges and Employers reports that while the class of 2025 submitted more job applications than the class of 2024, it received fewer offers. Not surprisingly, parents of today’s graduates are pessimistic that their children will be as able to find good jobs and enter the middle class as they themselves were. A mismatch is emerging between what employers want and what potential employees can offer. Employers are demanding front-line and blue-collar workers, while many college graduates have softer, white-collar skills….

If millions of college graduates end up unemployed or underemployed within the next few years, a new political eruption seems likely. We may already be seeing its beginning in New York City with Zohran Mamdani’s appeal to young voters. There’s nothing more politically potent than disappointed expectations. [end quote]

People go deep into debt to get educations which may suddenly be worthless in the new AI dominated business environment. History says that excess elites can be trouble.

Wendy

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One very significant “excess elite” crowd forgotten in the cited texts were the younger sons of Medieval Nobility down to minor barons — which led directly to Hello the Crusades! Had to find something somewhere to get rid of all those pesky little beasts.

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Should we conclude AI is a coming paradigm shift? That implies many aspects of career planning need to adapt to the new environment.

Big changes are coming. But the right answers may take a while. A period of uncertainty!!

There is no doubt about it. Three paradigm shifts

First came computers
Then the WWW
Now AI

The Captain

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