AI Boom Looking Fragile

https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/the-ai-boom-is-looking-more-and-more-fragile-bd546022?mod=hp_lead_pos6

The AI Boom Is Looking More and More Fragile

AI stocks have swung downward as doubt rises about sustainability and payoff

By Asa Fitch and Dan Gallagher, The Wall Street Journal, Nov. 12, 2025

Perfect isn’t good enough, and any sign of weakness is a disaster: Justified or not, that’s the current mood in the markets about the AI boom….

here are, of course, real reasons to worry about the sustainability of the boom. Chief among them is that there is far more AI computing infrastructure spending than there is AI revenue, a gulf that is widening by the day. …

AI-related companies had issued $139 billion of corporate bonds this year as of last month, according to a Goldman Sachs report—about 9% of all investor-grade issuance and a 23% jump over last year…. [end quote]

This is only the latest of a series of articles keeping the AI bubble in the sights of speculators. Will it pop? Time will tell.

Wendy

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The race to AI has caused increased construction of data centers.

https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/how-ai-is-transforming-data-centers-and-ramping-up-power-demand
data centers have become some of the most important infrastructure in the world.

Let’s not overbuild the number of data centers as the world has done with EV battery factories resulting in a malinvestment of EV battery factories.

https://insideevs.com/news/778532/battery-capacity-outpacing-demand/

  • Capacity to build EV batteries far outstrips demand globally, a new report says.
  • It’s worst in China, but the overcapacity issue exists in every major market and poses financial risks for battery makers.
  • Material and production costs are still high, which means EVs often aren’t cheaper than gas cars, reducing demand.

In North America, there is 1.9 times as much capacity as demand. In Europe, the capacity-to-demand ratio is 2.2.

And China, there is an absolutely stunning flood of capacity: 5.6 times as much battery-building capacity as there is demand for batteries.

https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20251108127/big-tech-needs-a-staggering-15-trillion-to-fund-the-ai-boom-this-is-the-complex-playbook-its-using-to-get-it

Big Tech needs a staggering $1.5 trillion to fund the AI boom. This is the complex playbook it’s using to get it.

AI has the potential to completely transform the world. But first, it needs a few trillion dollars. Out of the estimated $2.9 trillion in AI capital expenditures expected by 2028, the hyperscalers building the technology - including Meta, Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN), Google parent Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) (GOOG), Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) and Oracle Corp. (ORCL) - will only generate enough cash to cover $1.4 trillion, according to a report by Morgan Stanley strategists led by Vishwas Patkar.

To get the remaining $1.5 trillion, Big Tech companies will need to not only utilize traditional debt instruments like corporate bonds but also carry out feats of financial engineering that will fundamentally redefine their relationship with Wall Street - and pull the entire market along for the ride.

But today, megacap tech names have partnered with private startups and higher-risk public companies to create a large-scale, opaque financing system that makes past strategies look rudimentary. Neoclouds that rent out graphics processing units, or GPUs, have emerged to provide fast and flexible AI computing capacity for an ecosystem where data-center inventory seems perpetually constrained. OpenAI’s dealmaking spree has put the company at the center of over $1 trillion in infrastructure partnerships. Supplying the GPUs that are powering it all is chip giant Nvidia Corp. (NVDA), which has made strategic investments in its top customers.

To avoid depleting their own free cash flows - the money available to reinvest back into the business or distribute to shareholders - the hyperscalers are looking for novel ways to finance their data-center build-outs. Meta’s minority stake in its Hyperion joint venture will appear as an “non-marketable equity investment” on its balance sheet, according to the company’s latest quarterly filing.

That means “the debt is not consolidated on Meta’s books. It sits with the special-purpose vehicle,” Sean McDevitt, partner at the consulting firm Arthur D. Little, told MarketWatch. Arthur D. Little served as commercial due-diligence adviser to Meta on the Hyperion deal.

And Wall Street is eager to service these investment-grade tech behemoths, seeing them as extremely reliable streams of income.
Well until they aren’t.

AI leveraged to the hilt!

Didn’t we see this in the real estate bubble?

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