https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/13/opinion/us-tariffs-economy-trade-transshipment-scam.html
It Was a Great Scam While It Lasted
By Peter Navarro, The New York Times, Aug. 13, 2026
On Thursday, the White House is releasing a report documenting the great transshipment scam: a shadow network of more than 40 countries enabling sleight of hand to deceive American consumers and customs officials about where their exports really originate. In the process, these countries are robbing the United States of tens of billions of dollars a year and countless manufacturing jobs.
Transshipment is driven by tariff arbitrage: When a product from one country faces a higher U.S. tariff than it would from another country, the difference becomes a profit opportunity, and even a business model in its own right…
Customs and Border Protection is establishing a new artificial intelligence-enabled inspection system, called Detective Border, that will soon be able to assess transshipment risk in every ship leaving every port carrying cargo bound for the United States… [end quote]
How will this work?
Instead of relying solely on physical port inspections, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) will deploy an AI-driven monitoring system that analyzes global supply chain data before ships even reach U.S. waters.
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Data Fusion & Anomaly Detection: The system continuously ingests shipping manifests, bill of lading records, routing histories, corporate ownership webs, and local factory production capacities.
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Red Flag Trajectories: If a factory in a third country suddenly exports $100 million worth of goods to the U.S. despite having no logical capacity, energy usage, or raw material inputs to manufacture them locally, the AI flags the shipment for investigation.
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Computer Vision & Port Inspections: High-risk cargo identified by the AI will be targeted for physical scans (X-ray/gamma-ray imaging) and container breakdowns at ports to check packaging, serial numbers, and origins.
Sub-Assembly Tracing: AI tools track component-level supply chains to enforce rules that require core inputs (like semiconductors or steel) to originate in non-sanctioned locations.
This program is meant to protect American jobs. But it will cause supply-chain bottlenecks. Prices will be higher for American manufacturers using imported components as well as consumers when tariffed import prices are forced up to the level of American manufactured goods.
Wendy