Last month the Canadian Supreme Court approved a referendum this year on Alberta’s separation from Canada. The petition drive is moving along quickly.
To be successful, they need to collect about 177,000 signatures by May 2, of which 10 per cent must be eligible voters from the last provincial election.
Alberta makes up 15% of the Canadian economy, and its GDP per capita is the highest of the provinces.
DB2
Can Alberta survive as an independent country? Surrounded by Canada and the U.S. No seaports. Dependent on neighbors to export. Lots of diplomacy required. Make free trade agreements w neighbors?
There are lots of land locked countries that survive, but having a port or three is a wayyyy better way to do it.
There has been a “grievance” attitude amongst that province for a long time, and sometimes people do things that aren’t in their own best interest because somebody comes along and convinces them otherwise. See: Brexit. I’m sure there’s another example, but I can’t think of it just now.
Sure, but Switzerland and Austria have done OK during my lifetime.
As for Brexit, the UK works from a trade deficit and Alberta from a trade surplus. It could work out to be a prosperous petro-state. As noted above it has the highest GDP per capita of the provinces (and it won’t have to help subsidize Quebec).
DB2
OK, but as we have seen lately, once someone unilaterally changes the trade dynamic, you are bound to get counter-reactions on the other side of that game. Brexit was sold as “we’ll withdraw and get everything we want, but nothing on the other side is going to change against us.”
Which obviously didn’t work out that way. We are going through a similar exercise right now, where a certain politician thinks he can level any manner of tariff he wants without having pushback in some other area. There are not only cold, hard economics are work, but there are also hurt feelings that have to be overcome, and that takes time.
It’s almost without argument that Brexit has hurt the UK, I have little doubt that the tariff merry-go-round we are on will hurt us (both directly, and indirectly as former partners find new trading partners and supply chains); it’s unimaginable that Alberta pulling out of Canada wouldn’t work the same way.
It’s fine to say “It’ll be great” but it’s also wise for someone to step up and say “But what if it doesn’t work out the way you think it will?”, especially when proposing a permanent change of status and function.
Especially if your primary resource is fossil fuel. You need ports, and if you don’t have any, you need an agreement to use someone else’s.
And this has steered the conservative bent in Alberta for many, many years. The wealthy economy of Alberta is driven by fossil fuels and the antipathy toward Ottowa is almost entirely based on what Albertians see as attempts to limit either production, or methods of production, of oil and gas.
Alberta has sometimes been called the ‘Texas of the North’ since both Alberta and Texas have large oil and gas sectors, strong rural and evangelical influences, and political cultures that emphasize individualism, low taxes, and suspicion of central government. In both places, resource politics drive conservative backlash against environmental regulation and climate policy, making pro‑fossil‑fuel parties dominant in statewide/provincial politics. The analogy breaks down a bit, though, because Alberta’s conservative parties still operate within a Canadian welfare state that includes universal health care and somewhat stronger social protections than are typical even in moderate U.S. states, apart from Texas. Very conservative is much less conservative in Canada than in the U.S.
Pete
Gemini says: "That statement is incorrect; the Alberta Court of King’s Bench ruled in December 2025 that a proposed provincial referendum on separation from Canada would be unconstitutional, contravening the Canadian Constitution and infringing on rights, despite some citizen support for putting the question to voters. "
Blockquote
I don’t know what it is, but in late December the legislature passed Bill 14 which is claimed made the question moot.
In a ruling issued in early December, Justice Colin Feasby of the Court of King’s Bench of Alberta found the question was unconstitutional.
However, his ruling was rendered moot after the legislature passed Bill 14 several days later…
The First Nation alleges the government of Canada abdicated its treaty obligations by not doing anything to stop the petition from going forward.
DB2
So when will Quebec file their case?
Their “balance of payments” may be giving them second thoughts.
DB2
That is because they do not depend on oil exports for their economy.
AIR construction of Canada’s trans continental railroad was a response to the threat of western Canada to leave—over a century ago.
Alberta seems to be the latest component of this story.
Not to mention defence or currency requirements.