AMD Investing Board

This looks like a new 4nm mobile cpu coming out soon…doc

Then there is a new generation of 12 core APU’s coming out apparently. Reviewing all this news on AMD and what is coming out now and in the next 12 months makes me wonder why the share price is so volatile…doc

IBD article on AMD this quarter:
https://www.investors.com/news/technology/amd-stock-buy-now/?src=A00220

A look at the debt that AMD has and its cash situation. The negative that SWS shows is not related to financial but insider selling. I looked over the SWS analysis for AMD:

The analysts at Tipranks have AMD as a buy:

There’s a lot of information and this will change as soon as we see the 3rd quarter data. I’m hoping for them to exceed the analysts guess…doc

Since the earnings report is due out at the end of the month I thought I would watch for and share articles on AMD …doc

This is gurufocus list of Guru’s trades not from the article:

List of guru’s trades since 1/2023

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Let’s hope this information bodes well for the earnings report that is about to come out. I have seen some news that the new video cards they came out with are selling out! I haven’t seen too much on the cpu’s. I think the last quarter is going to be the big quarter for AMD if they get the Mi300 gpu’s out and sell a lot of them. We shall soon see…doc

AMD popped above its expected move for the week which means it could retrace to a higher low or it could set up a new trading range.

I’m hoping the news about the AI sales that Lisa announced along with the Mercury news on AMD sales is propelling AMD higher…doc

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I actually sold a little – but then, the kind of month we’re having, I sold a little of a LOT of things. Unrealized gains aren’t real. :confused:

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Interestingly it retraced to the bottom of the trading range then moved to a new high above the expected move for the week so that was good…doc

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Closed at $122.51 – which I take as a sign that we may be breaking higher? Nvidia, interestingly, kinda languishes after that blowout quarter.

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Well it didn’t break higher but it is holding so far here around $120…doc

From the article: Hari increased his 2024 and 2025 revenue estimates for AMD by 7% and 10%, respectively, as he reflected on last week’s supply chain checks that indicated broad-based adoption of the company’s MI300 Data Center GPU offering across the cloud and enterprise markets.

I like that the article suggests broad based adoption of the AMD MI300. Next the article is pretty positive about growth areas for AMD in 2024:
From a stock perspective, the analyst envisions AMD’s early success in Data Center GPUs augmenting what he expects to be a constructive year for its server CPU franchise (i.e., market recovery + sustained market share gains) and ultimately driving outperformance in 2024.

Lastly AMD is one of the many companies that the Goldman Sachs analyst sees to benefit from AI infrastructure buildout and the resumption of PC volume growth. The price target is $157 (AMD). I’ve been following Intel to see how the new chips they are bringing out will compete, but its hard to evaluate since AMD has had all this time to tweak their next gen chips to be released when Intel brings out their newest iteration. I’ve seen some reviews on the AMD AI card and its excelling against the Nvidia cards. AMD server cpu’s are still vastly superior to Intels offering and AMD seems to have a very good laptop cpu, but the new Intel cpu’s for laptop have closed the gap from something I read recently. I’ve held AMD for over 5 years. Today, I am concerned about China invading Taiwan and US Sanctions against China causing investigations of these companies like Nvidia and AMD along with possible declining sales from these sanctions. So far AMD has been a great investment. My humble 2 cents. I really like hearing from the experts who frequent this forum about the technological side since we have excellent posters here who are knowledgeable about this…doc

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Intel cpu’s for laptop have closed the gap from something I read recently.

There were some pretty disastrous evaluations from OEMs not long ago…

if this is exaggerated then good for Intel; if not, ugly

most of the quotes are actually from Moore’s Law is Dead:

To start things off, MLID provides a quote from an Intel contact that is responsible with OEM communications:

> […] I’d like to confirm that at least in some scenarios Meteor Lake is definitely performing below what our partners expected.
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> I am not sure what went wrong, it’s not my department, but in the past month my days have been filled with meetings with angry OEMs asking us why Meteor Lake is barely better than Raptor Lake in their testing.

Speaking about the delayed launch and things that did not go according to plan, one OEM told MLID:

> In some form factors Meteor Lake IS better than Raptor Lake, but it isn’t always better… and that’s just not good enough. We were planning for an Alder Lake moment for 2023 Back To School sales, and instead we seem to be getting an Ice Lake moment that misses the holidays.

The same OEM mentions that, because of the incentives offered by Intel, laptop integrators do not usually order significant stocks of AMD processors so they cannot change their offerings too fast in case sales stagnate:

> […]We have to sell Intel, and we’ve been waiting for YEARS for something exciting and new that isn’t just another refresh of Alder Lake.
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> Now we’re going to have to try to convince consumers they need some expensive ‘AI Laptop’ this January that effectively does nothing new with tiles besides cost more than what they could buy 2 years ago.

Another major OEM is talking about an overhaul of the entire Meteor Lake marketing as a result of the underwhelming CPU performance:

> In our final testing there’s no appreciable CPU performance uplift with Meteor Lake over Raptor Lake, and this you’re going to see us lean into AI, Graphics and per/Watt for marketing.

One last quote comes from one of Intel’s biggest OEM partners and MLID underlines how shocking their negative comments are:

> We won’t be supporting Meteor Lake in our products above what’s necessary to keep a satisfactory relationship with Intel, and we will be utilizing Hawk Point and Strix Point as quickly as possible next year with as much volume as they will give us…
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> We see the writing on the wall, it’s time to go 50/50 Intel/AMD in laptop as quickly as possible - we don’t want to get screwed over like this ever again.

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I didn’t post them but 2 firms upgraded AMD’s price target to $195 and $200. I heard an analyst on Schwab TV say that what if AMD get 3 or 4 billion in AI sales next year instead of 2 billion like Lisa projected. He reminded us that in the past when sales were good that AMD always was conservative in their predictions and exceeded expectations…doc

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Interesting article and very encouraging.
While AMD has been shipping its Instinct MI300-series products to its supercomputer customers for a while now and expects the series to become its fastest product to $1 billion in sales in history, it looks like AMD has also initiated shipments of its Instinct MI300X GPUs. LaminiAI has partnered with AMD for a while, so it certainly has priority access to the company’s hardware. Still, nonetheless, this is an important milestone for AMD as this is the first time we have learned about volume shipments of MI300X. Indeed, the post indicated that LaminiAI had gotten multiple Instinct MI300X-based machines with eight accelerators apiece (8-way).

Based on performance numbers demonstrated by AMD, the Instinct MI300X outperforms Nvidia’s H100 80GB, which is available already and is massively deployed by hyperscalers like Google, Meta (Facebook), and Microsoft. The Instinct MI300X is probably also a formidable competitor to Nvidia’s H200 141GB GPU, which is yet to hit the market.

According to previous reports, Meta and Microsoft are procuring AMD’s Instinct MI300-series products in large volumes. Yet again, LaminiAI is the first company to confirm using Instinct MI300X accelerators in production.

Google Meta Microsoft
The main thing I am wondering is if we will get an earnings beat tomorrow since this article alludes to AMD shipping MI300 in volume. I have been weighing risking some cash to increase my position in AMD and this has me leaning towards an earnings beat like we used to get every quarter - you long timers remember those days. I feel we may be at $200 per share quicker than I was thinking…doc

AMD’s customers begin receiving the first Instinct MI300X AI GPUs — the company’s toughest competitor to Nvidia’s AI dominance is now shipping | Tom’s Hardware (tomshardware.com)

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Nvidia will still be a beast: Meta will have 350,000 of Nvidia’s fastest AI GPUs by end of year, buying AMD’s MI300, too | Tom’s Hardware (tomshardware.com)

I gotta get me some NVDA. That being said I do have some AMD: In fact, both Meta and Microsoft are procuring plenty of AMD’s Instinct MI300 processors too, according to SemiAnalysis.

Again, I hope AMD announces an earnings surprise tomorrow after the market close…doc

AMD’s looming Ryzen APUs show big 30% boost over prior-gen models — Ryzen 8000G benchmarks easily beat Ryzen 5000G

AMD’s looming Ryzen APUs show big 30% boost over prior-gen models — Ryzen 8000G benchmarks easily beat Ryzen 5000G | Tom’s Hardware (tomshardware.com)

Compared to their predecessors, the Ryzen 7 8700G and Ryzen 5 8600G are both 30% faster, in line with the expected upgrade of Zen 3 to Zen 4. All three Ryzen 8000G APUs can hit up to 5 GHz, substantially higher than even the Ryzen 7 5700G’s 4.6 GHz boost clock speed, and the Zen 4 architecture inside the Ryzen 8000G series also delivers a little extra performance.

It’s just an APU, but the Zen 4 architecture gives an improvement to these workhorse chips and may give an indication of things to come…doc

Nvidia’s H100 AI GPUs cost up to four times more than AMD’s competing MI300X — AMD’s chips cost $10 to $15K apiece; Nvidia’s H100 has peaked beyond $40,000: Report | Tom’s Hardware (tomshardware.com)

AMD has formally started volume shipments of its CDNA 3-based Instinct MI300X accelerators and MI300A accelerated processing units (APUs), and some of the first customers have already received their MI300X parts, but pricing for different customers varies based on volumes and other factors. But in all cases, Instincts are massively cheaper than Nvidia’s H100.
I wish AMD wouldn’t sell these cards for 1/4 the price of NVDA units.

In general, the prices of Nvidia’s H100 vary greatly, but it is not even close to $10,000 to $15,000. Furthermore, given the memory capacity of the Instinct MI300X 192GB HBM3, it makes more sense to compare it to Nvidia’s upcoming H200 141GB HBM3E and Nvidia’s special-edition H100 NVL 188GB HBM3 dual-card solution designed specifically to train large language models (LLMs) that probably sell for an arm and a leg.

Especially since the MI300 is more in line with the newest NVDA card or unit but thats business. I understand that MSFT should get a discount but compared to NVDA this is crazy low. On the other hand to get the volume this may be what AMD has to do. Also, if AMD starts to get significant volume (catches Nvidia eye) then Nvidia will have to drop prices which would be interesting from the perspective of NVDA share price somewhere in the future.

AMD expects sales of its data center GPUs — which includes MI300-series devices — to exceed $3.5 billion, and the company says it has some supply still available, which stands in contrast to Nvidia’s rumored 52-week wait times. In either case, analysts from Citi deem AMD’s $3.5 billion in sales an underestimation. Christopher Danely, an analyst with Citi, believes that AMD could generate $5 billion on data center GPUs this year, and $8 billion in 2025.

This is exciting. I remember when AMD would surprise every quarter with earnings beats. Also, there is that tidbit that AMD has a little excess inventory and NVDA has a 52 week wait time…doc

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Intel suffers another setback…doc
Intel’s Ohio fabs could reportedly slip to late 2026 — ‘Silicon Heartland’ factories were originally planned for 2025 | Tom’s Hardware (tomshardware.com)

AMD’s CEO Is Very Optimistic Towards The Future of AI, Says That Firm Is Ready To Take Over (wccftech.com)

not new: For a quick recap of the recent financial results by Team Red, the firm has revised its revenue guidance for data center revenue during the current quarter and is now confident that during Q1 2024, data center revenue should grow sequentially and surpass $3.5 billion by the end of this year, which is a huge increase from the firm’s previous $2.5 billion forecast. This increase is solely due to how AMD’s Instinct MI300 AI accelerators have performed in the markets when it comes to client adoption, especially with the MI300X, which has gained immense interest in the industry.

From the conference call:
Customer deployments of our Instinct GPUs continues accelerating, with MI300 now tracking to be the fastest revenue ramp of any product in our history, and positioning us well to capture significant share over the coming years based on the strength of our multi-generation Instinct GPU road map and open source ROCm software strategy.

and finally a new vague prediction:
AMD’s CEO has predicted that AI revenue could increase to a whopping $150 billion by 2027 and sees the firm in a great position to capitalize on such a huge chunk of capital through its AI portfolio. At the same time, Lisa Su has acknowledged the competition AMD faces and shown confidence in what’s happening. The future holds greatness for everyone, and we can’t wait to see what next-gen AI accelerators and equipment bring onboard to contribute towards artificial intelligence growth.

Exciting times for all companies AI I think…doc

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