Summer warming slowdown
But the temperature is already higher and more days of summer.
I wonder how much of this is due to melting ice sheets. Perhaps it’s like a glass of melting ice water, staying at the same temperature until all the ice is melted.
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Good question. Most articles I have read attribute what are called teleconnections such as the AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) or the frequency of mid-Pacific El Niños.
DB2
A new AMOC paper in Nature this week.
Florida Current transport observations reveal four decades of steady state
Volkov et al.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-51879-5
Abstract:
The potential weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in response to anthropogenic forcing, suggested by climate models, is at the forefront of scientific debate. A key AMOC component, the Florida Current (FC), has been measured using submarine cables between Florida and the Bahamas at 27°N nearly continuously since 1982. A decrease in the FC strength could be indicative of the AMOC weakening. Here, we reassess motion-induced voltages measured on a submarine cable and reevaluate the overall trend in the inferred FC transport. We find that the cable record beginning in 2000 requires a correction for the secular change in the geomagnetic field. This correction removes a spurious trend in the record, revealing that the FC has remained remarkably stable. The recomputed AMOC estimates at ~26.5°N result in a significantly weaker negative trend than that which is apparent in the AMOC time series obtained with the uncorrected FC transports.
DB2
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Is the Florida Current part of the Gulf Stream? How big a part?
“The Florida Current is a strong ocean current that originates in the Gulf of Mexico and flows along the east coast of Florida through the Florida Straits, into the open North Atlantic Ocean, where the flow becomes the Gulf Stream.”
The Florida Current is joined by the Antilles Current north of the Bahamas. The Florida Current is about 30 Sv (million cubic meters per second) and the Antilles is about 5 Sv.
DB2
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New study finds that the Gulf Stream is warming and shifting closer to shore.
How much has the temperature changed in the Gulf Stream?
He and study co-author Alice Ren, also a physical oceanographer at WHOI, found that the near-surface layer of the Gulf Stream has changed most prominently. According to their data, it has warmed on average by about 1°C (1.8 °F) over the past two decades, becoming increasingly lighter than the waters below.Oct 9, 2023
You can look at that and not take any responsibility. That is a nonsense approach.
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I don’t know if you were concerned about it, but your linked article mentions that…
“Ocean temperatures are steadily getting warmer as a result of human activities, such as burning fossil fuels, releasing heat-trapping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. However, the basic drivers of the Gulf Stream—atmospheric wind patterns and the Earth’s rotation—will not disappear in a changing climate, so there is no concern that the Gulf Stream will shut down.”
DB2
I love the irony and conflicting ideas that intelligent people have. That makes no sense. It is not lost on me that it makes no sense.
Are you perhaps confusing/conflating the Gulf Stream with the AMOC?
DB2
It is two sides of the same coin.
What is the main cause for the change in the AMOC?
Climate change may weaken the AMOC through increases in ocean heat content and elevated flows of freshwater from melting ice sheets. Studies using oceanographic reconstructions suggest as of 2015, the AMOC is weaker than it was before the Industrial Revolution.
From last year…
And a paper out this week…
Atlantic overturning inferred from air-sea heat fluxes indicates no decline since the 1960s
Terhaar et al.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-55297-5
DB2
Bob,
Yep but the AMOC problems are going forward.
If there are problems. We have research that shows a stable AMOC with decadal variations going back to 1900 (Fraser & Cunningham) and back to 1860 (Parker & Ollier). Longer measurements of stability is a confidence builder.
The IPCC AR6 said there was medium confidence of no AMOC collapse. Of course, there is the small problem that the models don’t agree with measurements of the past behavior (“Can we trust projections of AMOC weakening based on climate models that cannot reproduce the past”, McCarthy & Caesar).
DB2
The studies can not be reproduced because the numbers have become more dire.
But they haven’t. Just four months ago researchers corrected undersea cable measurements for changes in the earth’s geomagnetic field. Removing the spurious data, they found the current has remained “remarkably stable” over four decades.
Florida Current transport observations reveal four decades of steady state
Volkov et al.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-51879-5
DB2
You are making believe because some of your sources are making believe.
What and how? And the peer reviewers as well?
DB2
You answer that. Go ahead look into it. Seriously.
Because every single time any of us prove you wrong within a week you are back at it.
You are not listening to me. Ever. I can prove things to you till the cows come home. You will find a self centered set of false facts from a liar in a named journal and fall right back into think you have facts. You do not.
CO2 and methane counts in the atmosphere are rising faster than previously assumed.
Any crap you find is exactly that crap. Human beings sure do print a lot of it.
It’s clear the whole science thing is not your forte.
DB2
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