while I agree with all of these concerned on TWLO, one potential upside to bring to attention is this.
TWLO has massive leverage to major corporate, consumer, political, social events… as text messaging is becoming mainstream communication method for large organizations to reach to their target audience (customers, voters… you name it)
I believe it was the December quarter when TWLO announced large surprise beat that was helped by heavy one-time spend by two different customers, one of them was related to political (was there an election somewhere) and another one was in Europe…
the point is - text based B2C communication is just becoming norm in our lives, there are too many use cases and events that can leverage this and it will be hard to guess what event / use case will deliver that extra edge in which quarter…
my thought is that it is still a few quarters, possibly a couple of years before we will see TWLO anywhere near matures in terms of its potential revenue size just on current use cases and revenue bases (i am not even thinking of flex or IoT here)… sure, one or two quarters up and down will happen but it will be hard to guess / time this as there is more chance of upside surprises than downside surprises.
nilvest
TWLO is my 4th position at 12%