Analyst misunderstanding gives us our advantage…

So many analysts don’t have a basic understanding of the companies they are covering - not just in Seeking Alpha, but here is an example. He can analyze a balance sheet, but this guy doesn’t even notice the divergent growth between service income and subscription income. He doesn’t have any real understanding of the technology of most of the companies he is covering, despite that he calls himself a “cloud analyst”

In a previous article he was bearish on MDB, again based on valuation, comparing it to CLDR!

MDB owns a product that is changing the world, like the early Ford. CLDR (which I am long on by the way, because it, along with HDP, is one of the few pure play cloud data fabric companies) is like a dealership - they provide sales and services on a product they don’t own. Both can be successful (for some products service will cost more than purchase price), but you would expect very different valuations based on very different moats. MDB’s moat is maybe one of the best in the cloud space today, while Cloudera’s moat is mostly based on brand. Pivotal is like the sole company providing sales and service for Mercedes - better than CLDR, but not as big as MDB.

Share price will go up and down according to sentiment, but in time this guy and his followers will notice their mistake, which will make for continued appreciation in the stock price for PVTL and MDB. I don’t mean they will go straight up from here. There’ll probably be a reverse dead cat bounce tomorrow and there will be lots of jumps and falls - but misunderstanding in the market means that over time people will see their error, and this gives Fools and followers of this board our advantage in the market.



Your batting 2 for 2 with MongoDB and PVTL. Thanks for your contributions for that. The collective net worth of this board is probably seven figure increased just today based upon your and Saul’s singular contributions on PVTL (and a little love for Tinker too).

While always looking for new opportunities, you made the following statement:

CLDR (which I am long on by the way, because it, along with HDP, is one of the few pure play cloud data fabric companies)

Bert just came out with a bull case on Cloudera on Seeking Alpha:…

This is two times today this name has come up from those whose analyses I respect. Could I entice you to take a third pitch and comment on Cloudera’s future prospects in the IT/big data enterprise?

BTW is your moniker a tribute to the great Herman Hesse, or the rock band, or other?



Actually, I did not discuss Cloudera in the linked post, but I did discuss it (in another thread) based upon the report I reference in this Talend report that went 2 posts long.

Basically, in Big Data Web Fabric category, which I believe is where Cloudera operates, Forrester put them in the back end of the second tier, of three tiers, with Tier 1 being leaders, Tier 2 Strong product, and I forget Tier 3.

Basically, of the competitors in this market, Cloudera has a small foot print, and its offerings are a bit less than average.

This said, the market is all about looking forward. If Cloudera is improving what it had when the report was done, then that may make for a good investment. But if you want to invest in the market leader, Cloudera is not that, and not even close at this point in time.

Keep in mind however that Talend and Cloudera do different things although both in the same category for this survey.

So this is just one data point, there may be many others, and Bert may have hit some, that put this data point in better perspective.



In my limited knowledge and experience I am going to have to say that I probably am not going take anything Gary Alexander says to the bank.
Better information exists and I know where to find it . . .

Bottom Feeder

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