And Then The Hammer Fell

I want to get right down to it because I am up earlier than usual - have taken a nice sort of slow rolling jog around the lake in consideration of MNDY reporting results - and have a nice stack of blueberry pancakes waiting on me. I find that pancakes represent fine motivation on a wintery looking day.

Note 1) My slow rolling jog is reminiscent of what one might see in Planet of the Apes with small children on tricycles passing me easily. Be that as it may, impertinent to facts to the contrary - I tell myself I could take em if I wanted to - besides I am pacing myself. Or something lie that.

So now to MNDY - pretty good report with two exceptions: 1) Advertising a growth slowdown in so early a public career is not good - not good at all. Except - as Saul advises, who in the hell puts any real stock in Guidance. Well…evidently all those folks rushing to get off the MNDY train…thats who. The only question to consider is: are those folks rushing for the door right, wrong, prudent or foolish.

Well I thought a lot about that during my visit to the lake this morning and emphatically that I have no clue. But while admittedly clueless on the MNDY stampede that does not mean there is a dearth of opinion.
As my All-Too-Lovely wife says - I have a great many personal opinions on a wide variety of subjects, some of which actually turn out to be spot on. Anyway back to MNDY.

The second problem for those with faith in MNDY is the scaling of losses in the Guidance. It’s sort of like Christmas is coming and your wife has all the credit cards. You are going to take some lumps. And lump taking - especially as it pertains to investing is much a natural progression in baby companies. More to the point - with the pre-market sell-off MNDY’s Market Cap was whittled down to about $5.5B or some range thereof. Good grief MNDY is but a young tyke.

So - given that I wanted to get to those pancakes and that the entire disaster for MNDY revolves around rock solid, first rate sandbagging and losses that are a little unusual in their bulk - which may well be explained in the CC. I decided to add rather aggressively to MNDY. Whats the worse that can happen?
Dang thing is already down 23+% and the usual worst case bottom for these type events is about a loss of 25%. In for a penny in for buck.

So I did add - which takes my allocation to MNDY to truly terrifying heights, depending of course on what MNDY actually does going forward. Foolish? foolish? I dunno -but I know there will be maple syrup and bacon as well as fresh fruit along with the pancakes. So that’s that.

All the Best,


Ton of fat and ton of sugar together tal vez no es bueno señor.



Hey MSlob:

You’re right my friend - but since I have lost about 18 lbs over the last 6 weeks or so - rewarding myself for completing a 2022 goal in only a few weeks seemed like a good time to celebrate.

Unfortunately, my goal of beating the markets by double digits for the 6th year in a row might be a little more difficult. Long way to go though.

All the Best,

I got too aggressive yesterday…grrr.
Wanted a post-er bump from MNDY and got opposite instead. Double grrr. Maybe an arghh as well. Throw in a gak and an oof for good measure. Is an egads a step too far? Mayhap.

I do think buying here is probably gains, but my stupid risk aversion doesn’t want a larger position, so may be stuck just watching it get back to even the rest of this year, if I don’t sell on the way back up.

Nervous about lil buddy DOCN reporting tomorrow, then. Much different expectations there, though, and different valuation too.

All in all, I am happy to see/find/know companies that I see forecasting (with sandbag allowances) great growth this next year. That means likely multiple Q’s in a row of beat-and-raise.

This is why the Q4 ERs are so iffy sometimes. Guidance for a whole new FY. Every other Q, we only ask a company to update guidance for next Q and REMAINDER of the current fiscal year. Seems dumb. Either we should always request/expect 12 months guidance or next 4 Q guidance after each and every Q, or maybe just next 2 Q’s or whatever.

Que sera sera.



I hear you.

Gotta enough for a car here in costa rica and a trip to Europe with Ana.

Love seeing Dreamer expound. Makes my day both of you posting.

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