What people really aren’t mentioning is that Zoom’s revenue growth is decelerating.
Great point 12x
Here is how I am modelling ZM for now
Quarter ending 2018-04 2018-07 2018-10 2019-01
Revenue $M $60.1 $74.5 $90.1 $105.8
Growth Y/Y % 125% 126% 120% 108%
Growth Q/Q % 18.0% 24.1% 20.9% 17.4%
Gross margin % 81% 83% 81% 82%
Share count (M) 279
Quarter ending 2019-04 2019-07 2019-10 2020-01
Revenue $M $119 $140 $160 $180
Growth Y/Y % 98% 88% 78% 70%
Growth Q/Q % 12.3% 17.8% 14.5% 12.1%
Gross margin % 82% 82% 82% 82%
Share count (M) 289 299 309 319
Quarter ending 2020-04 2020-07 2020-10 2021-01
Revenue $M $198 $229 $258 $285
Growth Y/Y % 67% 64% 61% 59%
Growth Q/Q % 10.3% 15.7% 12.4% 10.7%
Gross margin % 82% 82% 82% 82%
Share count (M) 330 340 351 362
Quarter ending 2021-04 2021-07 2021-10 2022-01
Revenue $M $311 $355 $394 $430
Growth Y/Y % 57% 55% 53% 51%
Growth Q/Q % 8.9% 14.2% 10.9% 9.3%
Gross margin % 82% 82% 82% 82%
Share count (M) 373 385 396 408
So at the end of 3 yrs from now, at share count of 408M and TTM revenue of $1,490M, ZM may still be growing at 50%+ rate.
HOWEVER, if you give it P/S of 20 at that time, you get per share price of $75 which is $4 more than $71 today.
I rather put money in 0.1% savings account today!! At-least I dont have to worry about Zoom bubble bursting 