It’s been a long time since I’ve been a reflexive Apple-cheerleader or an “analysts don’t get Apple” poster, but – given my developing professional interest in ML – I can’t help it with this article.
" Even if Apple were to enter the AI space, Martin says it would likely lose out due to the first-mover advantage gained by current leaders. She says late entrants are “doomed” because AI customers will find it costly to change providers and the rising costs of data to create future models."
First off, Apple has been working in-house on AI for a while, as any Google search will show, so it looks like Martin hasn’t been very thorough with her research. She’s right that Apple doesn’t “have its own business offering access to LLMs via a cloud-computing platform”, but that doesn’t mean as much as she seems to think, especially since Apple has a long history of overcoming “first-mover advantage” by rivals.
Also, one of the goals of AI should, in fact, be ease of switching between platforms. LLMs aren’t supposed to be like OS’s locking in customers to specific models.
“Martin didn’t specify a timeline for when Amazon, Alphabet, and Microsoft will surpass Apple…”
This is the part that separates good analysts from bad analysts. The bad analysts depend on vagueness. This way, if their predictions fail to materialize, nobody will remember what they said, but if they do materialize, they can drag out their “predictions” as evidence that they had some sort of special foresight. These kinds of analysts are no better than fortune tellers in the Chinese emperor’s court.
I just recently watched The Big Short for the first time, which I really enjoyed. In contrast to the bad analysts, those guys did some real analysis and made real predictions on which to bet money. (At least, I assume they did in real life. I’m learning the details only now…)
" She’s also a proponent of Apple buying Walt Disney (DIS) to build its content business."
Analysts saying Apple should dump the Mac and sell only iPods, dump the Mac and sell only iPhones, Apple should license the Mac OS and stop selling Macs, dump hardware and sell only services, Apple should buy Sony, Apple should buy Netflix, Apple should buy Tesla, etc. goes back beyond the return of Steve Jobs.
I’m glad Apple has not listened to them, as far as I recall.
If we’d listened to all the Apple bashers over the years, I would not be in the position I am today. It’s a little eye catching to see drops like last week, but long term. it hasn’t mattered… And those dividends keep on coming…
That said. likely am going to update my watch, well, both, if we see more improvements, like to see BP added, but that likely needs paired ip earPods, so we’ll see… DW’s Watch (6) caught her afib early, mine’s a bit too old, a 5, so I’m overdue… Our iPhone 11’s seem fine for now, but if there is something tempting, who knows…
I guess I learned long ago to ignore the shorter’s gaming… Seems to have worked out…
I’ve been an Apple user, reseller, and certified developer on and off since 1979, longer than some Fools have been alive. I’m writing this on a 13 inch, 2020 MBP.
If the future is AI then it’s Tesla that has the winning hand. Machine Leaning (ML) AI is about data, tons and tons of data. Currently Tesla has some four million vehicles on the road collecting data to feed ML. Tesla is developing a humanoid robot, currently working in some Tesla factories, that are collecting a different kind of data to feed ML. Tesla realized that the resources needed, in addition to collecting the data, is storing and processing so they developed the Dojo supercomputer so as to reduced their reliance on NVDA GPUs and save tons of money in the process.
Does Barron’s mention Nvidia or Tesla or just the most visible whales, Google, Microsoft, and Amazon?
Apple could lose title as most valuable company? Of course it could. And someday, possibly soon, it will.
Here are a few of the companies which have, at one time, held the title according to ChatGPT:
Amazon
Microsoft
Google
Saudi Aramco
Johnson & Johnson
Berkshire Hathaway
Ten Cent
Alibaba
AT&T
Exxon Mobil
General Electric
IBM
Coca Cola
Intel
WalMart
And even if it’s making some of those up, there’s a healthy list of previous throne owners. Big Wheel keeps on turnin’ and all that.
(And the idea that Apple should buy Disney - for any reason - boggles the mind. They have no expertise in running declining media assets or theme parks or cruise ships or, well, anything Disney.)
Back in the boom time of telecoms, we believed we (Lucent Tech) were free of the Ma Bell relationship and were going to lead the world on into the future, talks at conferences of being a $50B company, and at at one, I remember my District manager, knowing my interest with Apple, believed they pass beyond Apple… Well, we know how that worked out, all of us nudged, prodded, tempted to bail out, all while of LU investments went down the drain… Luckily I’d invested in AAPL before then, and ridden it’ rises, it’s falls over the years, meanwhile, LU and it’s manufacturing, Labs, vanished, even now, buildings are being razed or a few, repurposed… Times change, sure, I had many good, interesting years at WeCo/LU… Glad to have the background… Bit is still changing…
