April mid-month update
My End of March portfolio looked like this, with 10 positions
Monday 16.7% Cloudflare 16.6% Enphase 16.4% Snowflake 16.0% Sentinel 10.8% Global-e 8.6% Samsara 7.8% TransMedics 3.2% Procore 3.1% Datadog 0.9% Bill 0.0%
My Middle of April portfolio looks like this, with 9 positions
Cloudflare 17.7% Enphase 17.1% Snowflake 14.8% Monday 14.3% Sentinel 11.3% Samsara 10.1% Global-e 9.1% Datadog 3.3% TheTradeDesk 2.6% TransMedics 0.0% Procore 0.0%
As you can see, I am no longer in Transmedics or Procore.
As it happens I sold out of TMDX at $77 to $74, and it’s now at $66, and I sold out of PROC at about an average price of $60, and it’s now at $52.50, but I can guarantee you that I had no idea, when I was selling them, that they would each fall about 12.5% in the next week or so. This just is a wonderful example of why I say over and over again that you shouldn’t follow me but make your own decisions.
Why did I sell out of TMDX? Here was my thinking:
“Revenue for the last quarter was up 225%. In 2023 we are going to see revenue grow by 50% or 60% or maybe 70%. Those ridiculous yoy quarterly comparisons to quarters when they were hardly having any revenue at all are finished. How will investors react to a drop in revenue growth from over 200% to say 60%? They also have to build up their capacity to handle lots more patients, which will be quite capital intensive and take at least six months. It will also take two to three years before they finish a study on kidney transplants, and submit it, and get approval, if they get it. I should get out.”
And why did I sell out of PCOR? Here was my thinking:
“Too variable and up and down. For example Operating Income Margin for the last two years was -6% and then -10% [that was -$31 million and then -$72 million]. On the other hand, revenue growth went from 29% to 40% (accelerating), while RPO (Remaining Performance Obligation) went from up 38% to up 32% (decelerating), and FCF (Free Cash Flow) went from positive $9 million to negative $37 million, without a good explanation for the $37 million loss in the 2nd quarter of last year. I have better places for my money.”
I also partly rebuilt Datadog to where it is now big enough that I can see it.